Looking at the Numbers 2008 vs 2012
Submitted by lynnopoly on Fri, 02/03/2012 - 11:40I was looking at the numbers from the winners of primary/caucus's of Feb. 2008:
Nevada- January 19:
Mitt Romney 22,649 51.1%
Ron Paul 6,087 13.73%
John McCain 5,651 12.75%
Mike Huckabee 3,616 8.16%
Fred Thompson 3,521 7.94%
Rudy Giuliani 1,910 4.31%
Duncan Hunter 890 2.01%
Maine- February 1, February 2, and February 3:
Mitt Romney 2,837 51.67%
John McCain 1,176 21.42%
Ron Paul 1,002 18.25%
Mike Huckabee 318 5.79%
Colorado- February 5, 2008:
Mitt Romney 42,218 60.1%
John McCain 12,918 18.4
Mike Huckabee 8,960 12.8
Ron Paul 5,910 8.4
Minnesota- February 5, 2008:
Mitt Romney 25,990 41.37%
John McCain 13,826 22.01%
Mike Huckabee 12,493 19.88%
Ron Paul 9,852 15.68%
Missouri- February 5, 2008:
John McCain 194,053 32.96%
Mike Huckabee 185,642 31.53%
Mitt Romney 172,329 29.27%
Ron Paul 26,464 4.50%
Here's the increased support for RP from 2008 to 2012:
Iowa: 10% to 21.4%, an increase of x2.1
NH: 7.7% to 22.9%, an increase of almost x3
SC: 3.7% to 13%, an increase of x3.5
FL: 3.2% to 7%, an increase of x2.18
Now looking at our increases in these states compared to what we may have to pull in the upcoming primary/caucus's means:
Nevada: We would need to increase x3.7
Maine: We would need an increase x2.83
Colorado: We would need an increase x7.14
Minnesota: We would need an increase x2.63
Missouri: We would need an increase x7.3
Now granted, these numbers are contingent on the fact that Mitt or your other "frontrunner" pulls the same kind of support in 2012 as they did in 2008.
Umm, what?
So, is this under the assumption that Ron Paul could beat Romney 52% to 51%? I would think that they would have to investigate that one. . . Wouldn't it be better to use actual numbers of votes?
Um, not sure what you mean..?
I was just looking at the growth of support we have obtained so far to how much growth we will need (approx) to win the February primary/caucus's.. I thought there's a very good chance we could pull off a few state wins this month based on our growth over the past 4 years.. no?
Mathew 5:9 Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.
In 2012, so far the winner
In 2012, so far the winner has needed:
- 24.6%
- 39.3%
- 40.4%
- 46.4%
It took just 24.6% to win the only caucus so far. We are still in this people!
Yes, but:
Now there are only four candidates (fewer in some states). The early contests have more vote dilution.
Good point, I would like to
Good point, I would like to know how many candidates were still around for the upcoming states in 2008.
Here ya go. I left out those who got less then 1%
Nevada- January 19:
Mitt Romney 22,649 51.1%
Ron Paul 6,087 13.73%
John McCain 5,651 12.75%
Mike Huckabee 3,616 8.16%
Fred Thompson 3,521 7.94%
Rudy Giuliani 1,910 4.31%
Duncan Hunter 890 2.01%
Maine- February 1, February 2, and February 3:
Mitt Romney 2,837 51.67%
John McCain 1,176 21.42%
Ron Paul 1,002 18.25%
Mike Huckabee 318 5.79%
Colorado- February 5, 2008:
Mitt Romney 42,218 60.1%
John McCain 12,918 18.4
Mike Huckabee 8,960 12.8
Ron Paul 5,910 8.4
Minnesota- February 5, 2008:
Mitt Romney 25,990 41.37%
John McCain 13,826 22.01%
Mike Huckabee 12,493 19.88%
Ron Paul 9,852 15.68%
Missouri- February 5, 2008:
John McCain 194,053 32.96%
Mike Huckabee 185,642 31.53%
Mitt Romney 172,329 29.27%
Ron Paul 26,464 4.50%
Mathew 5:9 Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.
Gracias
Gracias
Good point!
The republicans are so fractured right now..
Mathew 5:9 Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.