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Rick Santelli explains the new phony employment numbers - video




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good find -- Thanks

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There are two elements which can be played with

seasonal adjustments and the birth death rate. The former is something eekonomists do to try to make month to month figures comparable and is not as easy as some might think (ex, summer or holiday jobs, plant vacations, etc). The latter applies to estimates of new business creation (and closure).

Few people also realize that the unemployment rate comes from the "household survey" data (about 60K) and the non-farm payroll figure (in this case, +243K) is from the "establishment survey".

As I point out in my own blog, we are at a time when the unemployment rate looks better than it should simply because of the way it is calculated. In effect, long term unemployed are removed from the labor force. Both the labor participation rate and employment to population ratio are at levels not seen in many decades and at a time when the labor force had fewer full time women employees.

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SteveMT's picture

"the numbers might have been cooked."

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/208613-rep-...

In response to news that the overall unemployment rate had dropped to 8.3 percent and the unemployment rate in the black community declined from 15.8 percent to 13.6 percent, West floated the possibility that the numbers might have been cooked.

"Can someone tell me how employment in the black community has improved at a rate three times the national average in just a few months?? With numbers like today, urban communities should be well on their way to economic recovery then! There is something suspicious about the job numbers released today and it has me very concerned," West wondered Friday. "Is this dramatic supposed decrease in black unemployment a result of job creation or is someone playing around with the census numbers??"

I put something on here earlier today

http://www.dailypaul.com/210824/jobs-sucks-dont-beleive-the-...

gedankenexperiment.dk views on finance, politics and science

SteveMT's picture

The truth behind the lies.

Great jobs report, but what about the long-term unemployed?
By Nin-Hai Tseng, February 3, 2012: 10:28 AM ET

"But all this is happening with six million fewer workers even as the population expands. If we delve into January's labor report a little deeper, prospects for the long-term unemployed (those jobless for six months or longer) didn't improve. The long-term unemployment rate was little changed at 5.5 million workers who account for 42.9% of the unemployed."
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/03/long-term-unemploy...

Ah, some sanity =)

Ah, some sanity =)