What to watch for in Missouri.

I am on the Jasper County Missouri Republican Central Committee. I am also the guy responsible for this www.bigronpaulsign.com

Ron Paul will most likely win the most delegates in Missouri. Read on to see why.

1st off,

The primary is tommorow Feb 7th. However, this year is different than all others. The primary is meaningless. The county caucuses are where the delegates are assigned. This occured because a state law was passed requiring that the primary be held on this date. The national GOP did not want another early primary (like Florida) so they told Missouri to change their date or lose half their delegates.

Missouri did not want to lose it's influence. So they went to the state legistlature and passed a bill moving the primary later. The bill passed. However, something in the bill upset the governor and he vetoed it. A second attempt was made to pass a bill to move the primary but it failed to leave the state senate. In order to preserve it's delegate influence (52, more than Florida because they lost half due to early primary).

Even in a normal year, Missouri holds a caucus after the primary to elect delegates to district and state conventions. The caucus usually consists of less than 1% of primary voters (read party insiders).

THIS YEAR- What to watch.

Gingrich is not on the ballot for the primary.

No candidate has ANY grassroots groups, other than Dr. Paul. The Missouri Ron Paul groups are pretty healthy.

Mitt Romney has NO support from "tea party" groups. Not even the neocon groups.

Jasper and Greene counties hold the biggest influence on the state convention despite being less populace that the Kansas City/ St. Louis areas. The 7th congressional district where these counties reside are almost 100% Republican, even though they are somewhat urban/suburban. Where as the other major metropolitan areas are largely liberal. Therefore, the largest "Republican" influence comes from the 7th district. This area has typically been very neoconservative/"social conservative". However, a libertarian/constitutionalist influence has taken a stong foothold in this district. Look for a battle between these two factions in the primary and eventually.

Look for Santorum Vs. Paul in Southwest Missouri. Paul probably has a 2 to 1 advantage in the caucus over Santorum. So watch this area in tommorow's primaries to get an idea of the how the March 17th caucus will play out.