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Intrade 02/08/12 update: general and Maine

Submitted by Minarchist on Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:02
in

Did anyone look at Intrade predictions for Minnesota, Colorado or Missouri? What were Santorum's chances the day before?

I know they nailed Nevada.

For the nomination they still have Mitt at 80.7% today despite his 3-state loss yesterday. Santorum is now up to 10.4%, Newt at 2.7%, and Paul at 1.9%.

  1. Mitt 80.7%
  2. Santorum 10.4%
  3. Newt 2.7%
  4. Paul 1.9%

For winning the Maine caucuses it's

  1. Mitt 74%
  2. Paul 32%
  3. Santorum 6%
  4. Newt 0.5%

That's giving Paul a decent chance of winning. But they think he's twice as likely to get 2nd. They're also giving him a slightly lower chance to get 3rd than to win.

For 2nd place in Maine:

  1. Paul 60%
  2. Santorum 35%
  3. Mitt 24%
  4. Newt 10%

For 3rd place in Maine:

  1. Santorum 50%
  2. Newt 27%
  3. Paul 25%
  4. Mitt 5%


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Intrade 2/11/2012 Maine update: Ron Paul to win 69%!!!

Submitted by Minarchist on Sat, 02/11/2012 - 16:24.

Yeah baby, Intrade gamblers are finally betting that Ron Paul will win... but it has been trending this direction all week.

To win Maine:

  1. Paul 69%
  2. Mitt 31.9%

2nd place Maine:

  1. Mitt 75%
  2. Paul 25%
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"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
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Romney down to 57% chance of winning Maine!

Submitted by Minarchist on Sat, 02/11/2012 - 11:07.

But Paul is now at 37%.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91320

—


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
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Romney down to 60% chance to win

Submitted by Minarchist on Sat, 02/11/2012 - 02:48.

Psul is at 37% to win.

But Romney is at 67% to get 2nd, while Paul is at 50 % to get 2nd.

Very volatile. They have no idea.

—


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
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But if you like Intrade

Submitted by valleyforge on Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:08.

They are giving Dr. Paul a 49% chance that he wins at least one state. Since that's higher than his Maine odds, it suggests betters think he could win another state as well. It's also much higher than the 30% chance they gave him a week or two ago.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91320

Intrade was certain Romney would win Colorado

Submitted by valleyforge on Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:05.

Nuff said.

Certain?

Submitted by Minarchist on Sat, 02/11/2012 - 02:50.

What was the percent chance of winning?

Certain is 100%. Don't think it got that high. How close?

—


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
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Intrade 2/10/12 Maine update

Submitted by Minarchist on Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:58.

One day before the end of the caucuses, Mitt's chances to win have dropped to 67%.

Paul is at 29%.
UPDATE: jumped up to 33%35%!

Santorum and Newt are at 2.8% and 0.1% respectively.

For 2nd it's Paul at 66%, Mitt at 30%, and 2.5% and 0.3% for Santo and Newt.

—


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
track

Intrade 2/9/12 Maine update

Submitted by Minarchist on Fri, 02/10/2012 - 14:05.

For the win:

They're a bit less sure about Mitt or Paul winning, as both dropped about 5 points in the last 2 days.

  1. Mitt 75%
  2. Paul 27%
  3. Sant 6.5%
  4. Newt 0.2%

For second:

  1. Mitt 25%
  2. Paul 69%
  3. Sant 8.5%
  4. Newt 1.1%
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"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
track

Obviously intrade doesn't get Maine

Submitted by joeinmo on Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:18.

That caucus is 75% over, Santorum and Newt can never win.

Ground reports have Paul winning every super caucus rather handily.

Mitt has a chance, but slim even Polling shows Mitt only by 4-6% and most are in the margin of error. Except for NV Paul has at least doubled his vote, if that holds he is at 44%+ in Maine

We'll see

Submitted by Minarchist on Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:39.

Will be interesting to see if you or Intrade is right, though it's not like they're saying Paul won't win, just that Mitt is more likely to win.

—


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
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Uping my projections

Submitted by joeinmo on Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:40.

being that Santorum had his hat trick tuesday, I am going to say he takes votes from Romney.

Paul will take Maine

I dont think...

Submitted by Slipmatwax on Wed, 02/08/2012 - 14:44.

...intrade determine anything, I think the pundits and betters do

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Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy

Of course Intrade gamblers don't determine anything!

Submitted by Minarchist on Wed, 02/08/2012 - 16:02.

Of course Intrade gamblers don't determine anything any more than Roulette players determine where the little steel ball ends up.

Rather, they try to predict what the outcome will be, and bet accordingly.

—


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
track

Baloney

Submitted by Slipmatwax on Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:38.

Odds are set by the risk of the better to the bookey - High odds = fewer betters, low odds = more betters

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Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy