Extrapolated Maine results
Submitted by Paul_for_the_win on Sat, 02/11/2012 - 12:25The vote count at WatchTheVote2012 lists two Maine counties as complete, Aroostook (Paul 81, Romney 26) and Knox (Paul 98, Romney 96). If we assume this is accurate and compare it with the 2008 results (Paul 48, 58; Romney 41, 144) we see that Romney is consistently getting about 65% of what he got last time and the good doctor is getting 169%. If we apply this to the rest of the state we get a projected result of 1845 votes for Romney and 1692 votes for Paul.
Looks like the straw poll is going to be close and there is some possibility that Paul could eke out a win. Delegate-wise it is very likely that Paul will prevail, assuming even just a modest advantage in motivation of supporters.
Androscoggin in
With Androscoggin results now listed as complete my simple linear model gives a projected result of Romney 2390 and Paul 2360.
Very encouraging that Androscoggin should come through so strongly, that supports the thesis that Romney is bleeding support to Santorum in the home stretch. I would now say Paul is the favorite to win the straw vote.
The problem witth this projection
It is an encouraging projection, but are these bell-weather's for the state as a whole? Have they represent the state's results in the past? If not then they only represent that Paul's numbers are growing which is great, and I hope the trend continues!
Your projected numbers a wrong !
I agree this may be somewhat close between Paul and Romney but the projected results clearly favor Ron Paul with 48% beating Romney with 33% https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?authkey=CKT21ZkH&hl=e...
Those that are at the caucuses are reporting the results.There are multiple people calling in results from the same precincts which is a way to check for accurate numbers. They are also taking photos of the official tally sheets at the precincts.
If you are in Maine,PLEASE take a moment to call in the results! Hotline: 513-878-0378 http://watchthevote2012.com
Oh, BTW, welcome to DP. I see you have only been a member for 1 hour
Yup, just signed up. Thanks
Yup, just signed up. Thanks for the welcome.
Comparison with national polls
Also: Romney has been declining in national polls this week, which is some reason to think the most recent caucuses will be more favorable for Paul.
Nate Silver says he likes Paul's chances: https://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight
Thanks for
the link.