Projected Delegate Totals following Maine Caucus
Submitted by quickbrownfox on Sun, 02/12/2012 - 15:39in
Delegates Romney Paul Santorum Gingrich
Iowa 28 8 13 7 0
NH 12 7 3 0 0
SC 25 2 0 0 23
FL 50 50 0 0 0
NV 28 13 12 0 3
MN 40 6 20 10 4
CO 36 8 15 13 0
Maine 24 10 14 0 0
TOTAL 243 104 77 30 30
I did the projections based on what seems to be going on at the precinct level.. Caucus delegates could change based on someone dropping out, and in that case the delegate allocation would probably favor Romney/Paul even more.. Thoughts?
Corrected: Romney 93, Paul 82, Gingrich 29, Santorum 25
First, Nevada's are proportionally bound based on the caucus poll:
Mitt - 14
Newt - 6
Ron - 5
Rick - 3
Second, you have to exclude the 3 automatic delegates from IA, CO, MN, and ME as they are unpledged. (They are the national committeeman, committeewoman, and state chair.) Also Huntsman's 2 in NH are now unpledged.
Third, your Paul numbers are a little low if the campaign is correct that they have 50% of the Colorado local delegates, 75% in Minnesota, 75% in Maine, and 50% in Iowa.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/291218/ron-paul-s-del...
Assuming the ratios hold through the county and state conventions, that would work out to:
Iowa: 50% of 25 = 13
Minnesota: 75% of 37 = 28
Colorado: 50% of 33 = 17
Maine: 75% of 21 = 16
Adjusted totals:
Candidate: Total (IA, NH, SC, FL, NV, MN, CO, ME)
Mitt: 93 (6, 7, 2, 50, 14, 2, 7, 5)
Ron: 82 (13, 3, 0, 0, 5, 28, 17, 16)
Newt: 29 (0, 0, 23, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0)
Rick: 25 (6, 0, 0, 0, 3, 7, 9, 0)
None: 14 (3, 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3, 3)
Assuming the ratios hold
Assuming the ratios hold through the county and state conventions..
that is the wrong assumption.
here is why..
Assuming RP got 50% delegates in CO.
Let me use some numbers here to make this easier to understand..
if County A has 10 precincts, and each precincts has 10 delegates for a total of 100. The county has to elect 15 delegates to the state convension. If RP has 50 delegates in this county, 15 of them will run for state delegates, I am sure from the other 50, which are for Santorum, Romney and Gingrich, there will be at least 15 more names. So out of 30 or so names, the 10 delegates will vote for 15. now if your guys have 50% of the vote, why would they let anyone other than the 15 RP delegates to move to the state convension?
Therefore, in each county, if RP has 50% of delegates, they will guarantee 100% of RP delegation to the state convention.
if RP won the majority of counties with more than 50% that will make the state convension filled with RP delegates, which will guranntee all national delegates for state of CP for RP...
Therefore I see the numbers as follows
Iowa: 50% of 25 = at least 20
Minnesota: 75% of 37 = at least 32
Colorado: 50% of 33 = at least 26
Maine: 75% of 21 = at least 18
Candidate: Total (IA, NH, SC, FL, NV, MN, CO, ME)
Ron Paul: 104 (20, 3, 0, 0, 5, 32, 26, 18)
I don't understand
your system. Are the numbers respective of the order you wrote the candidates names? If so, why are there 5x sets of numbers, and 4x candidates? Please explain your system, or rewrite it so it doesn't need explanation. Thanks!
Explanation
Hey Josh, yeah sorry I had it formatted in a chart but it took out the formatting when I posted. The columns go as follows: Total Delegates (for each state), Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich.
So the bottom totals would be:
TOTAL DELEGATES: 243
Romney - 104
Paul - 77
Santorum - 30
Gingrich - 30
I thin I slightly overestimated Paul's numbers in MN and CO, so take off 10-15 from Pauls total and distribute them to the other 3.