Republics, Democracy, Delegates, and Ron Paul

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“A Republic, if you can keep it.” - Ben Franklin, 1787, Constitutional Convention

Since we are about the business of deciding who is to be the nominee for the Republican Party for President, it might be a good idea to get a few things straight. First, as the (First) Good Doctor noted, we have a Republic. In a Republic - and you would think the GOP would understand this, given our name - we vote for people, who then vote for someone to be the nominee. We also vote for Electors, who make up the Electoral College, and are the only people who actually vote directly for President. Get it? Now, apply that to the Republican Party - which is decidedly not a democracy. Remember, a democracy is two wolves and a lamb deciding what's for dinner..

So back to the GOP, and delegates, and not being a democracy, and just who is winning this thing? I'll break this down in a minute by state, but keep this in mind: each state, within the rules of the Republican National Committee, sets their own rules. They're all different. States are supposed to be 50 different laboratories of representative government, and in the delegate selection process they are. There are a few huge points, and you should keep those in mind as you study this, because they are immense in impact for that Other Good Doctor who is running an insurgency Liberty campaign. Here are those points:

The Republican National Committee (RNC) has rules that are agreed to by all the states. There are penalties for violating those rules.

It is arguable that the current rule structure was designed to help Mitt Romney. This is not evil, it is his supporters doing a good job of setting the playing conditions for the selection of the nominee.

Other people can and are taking advantage of these rules, namely Ron Paul. This is also not evil, but it is to the credit of his campaign and/or his supporters around the country.

I will address a few key rules: first you lose half your delegates as a state if you move your primary to before March 6th (also known as Super Tuesday). That includes the State Party Chair, National Committeeman and National Committeewoman. They still get to attend but are non-voting. States impacted are New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan. You are probably wondering why Iowa is not on that list. And Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Nevada. We'll get to them in a minute. Second key rule - no contest can be winner-take-all prior to April 1st, 2012. That's a big one, and one not being addressed. Let's look at the states.

Iowa - no actual delegates chosen yet. County Conventions are on Saturday March 10th, where delegates are chosen to the District and State Conventions. Saturday, April 21st is the District Conventions, where the delegates at these meetings pick who the State Convention Delegates will vote for, for President, by Congressional District. So, the 4 delegates from a Congressional District going to the State Convention are instructed to support whoever wins at the Congressional District Convention. On Saturday, June 16th is the State Convention, where the actual delegates to the Republican National Convention are elected. In addition to the District Delegates, there are Statewide Delegates (13 of them) and 3 Super Delegates (State Chair, National Committeeman, National Committeewoman). I should point out that today, 2/11/12, a new State Chair was elected, and he is publicly a Ron Paul supporter. Also of note, you may have caught that Iowa is not penalized for going early. As you may have also figured out, that is because they haven't actually selected any delegates yet.

New Hampshire - lost half of their delegates. Proportional delegates, meaning based on the popular vote you get delegates. Romney got 7, Paul 3, and Huntsman 2, for a total of 12. The two for Hunstman are now "unbound" since he dropped out.

South Carolina - lost half of their delegates. Proportional delegates, winner of each Congressional District wins 2 delegates and statewide winner gets 11. Total of 25 delegates, it appears Newt Gingrich won 23 and Mitt Romney won 2 delegates.

Florida - lost half of their delegates. They have decided all 50 delegates will be to the at-large winner, who was Mitt Romney. This appears to violate the April 1st rule, so we'll have to see what happens. There are reports of Gingrich challenging the winner-take-all aspect at the RNC level, but this won't be settled till August.

Nevada - no actual delegates chosen yet. March 10th and 17th are the County Conventions, attended by delegates chosen at the first Caucus. The County Convention delegates choose delegates to the State Convention (May 5-6), where the actual delegates to the National Convention are chosen. They are bound by proportional vote percentage to vote on the first ballot, 14 for Romney, 6 for Gingrich, 5 for Paul, and 3 for Santorum. They are unbound - or free to vote their conscience - if there is a second or later ballot.

Colorado - no actual delegates chosen yet. February 7th Caucus is to pick delegates to County Assemblies and District Conventions, so there is no delegate penalty. A non-binding poll is conducted at these caucuses. In March and April, there are County, District and State conventions, where the actual delegates are elected, by those who became delegates at the prior convention or caucus (21 District, 12 State, 3 Super, for a total of 36 delegates).

Minnesota - no actual delegates chosen yet. February 7th Caucus is to pick delegates to - well, I think you know by now - District and State Conventions, where the actual National Delegates are chosen. April 14/21 District Conventions - 8 of them - get to elect 3 delegates each to National, and tell them how to vote there. State Convention (May 4th/5th) elects another 13, and tells them how to vote, as well. Additionally, there are the 3 usual Super Delegates, for a total of 40 delegates yet to be picked.

Missouri - no actual delegates chosen yet. Saturday March 17th is the County Caucuses / green beer day for the rest of us, Saturday April 21st the District Conventions to choose the 24 District Delegates, and June 2nd the State Convention picks the rest of Missouri's delegates (24 District, 25 State, 3 Super for a total of 52 Delegates).

Maine - no actual delegates chosen yet. Most counties have had their caucus, but some stretch into March (3rd, Hancock County). Delegates chosen for District and State Conventions at these caucuses, a total of 24 - all officially unbound. District and State Conventions are on May 5th and 6th.

And there you have it - you are officially an expert on the delegates so far. Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota, Missouri, and Maine have not chosen delegates yet. New Hampshire and South Carolina have, and it appears Romney has 9, Gingrich has 23, Paul has 3, and Santorum has 0. Romney may have 50 delegates from Florida, and Florida may have to split them up, but we won't know until August most likely.

To sum up - whoever has the most delegates at the District and State Conventions will win the nomination.  Guess who has the most grassroots support?

Posted by
Steve Dickson. Steve Dickson blogs at Capitalist Sooner