Santorum Second in Arizona, first in Michigan, first in Ohio
Submitted by Bob-45 on Thu, 02/16/2012 - 00:19ARIZONA
Romney 38%, Santorum 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 11%
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/15/poll-santoru...
Michigan
Santorum 34%, Romney 25%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 5%
http://news.yahoo.com/polls-split-arizona-michigan-between-g...
Ohio
Santorum 36%, Romney 29%, Gingrich 20%, Paul 9%
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57378428-503544/santo...
Boy, the campaign's strategy of ignoring the foreign policy issue is REALLY working, isn't it?
I'm not feeling the LOVE here, people.
BTW, over 200,000 have already voted in Arizona, which almost certainly means an another 4th place finish for Dr. Paul.
Only Ron Paul and Romney are on the ballot in virginia
Ron is assured second place in virginia as only he and mittens qualified form the ballot
they said 9% before Nevada too
if they are happy to lie to us about election results, do you really think they would be honest with poll results?
Media is propping up Santorum
Because they think he is the least likely to beat Obama.
Ron Paul's Convention Speech
We must
Face the stupid. It burns. It's ignorant/arrogant. Most can't be reasoned with. But we must face it.
Look folks
I don't like the poll numbers either, but voting down the messenger isn't going to make them go away. We've got to stop relying on the campaign to work magic. Mail letters to Neocons, send messages on FB, make phone calls, send Super Brochures out to voters, work your state like you country depends on it. If we lose let's leave nothing undone!
didn't they have Ron polling at 5% in Maine
and look a what they have had to do to keep him bellow 40%
Those three states are just "hot buttons"
for MSM to whore out. Michigan was Pop Romney's home state...ooooo what happens if Mitt spits the bit in a state he's supposed to win?
Arizona is where Mitt was the other day....oooooo we have to follow Mitt. Mitt's where the action is.
Ohio is an important state because folks there are used to coming out and casting votes in crucial situations based on the way timing and electoral votes go.
But let's look at Arizona, Michigan and Ohio a little closer:
Arizona: 29 delegates at stake "winner take all" PRIMARY
Michigan: 30 delegates at stake "conditional" mixed PRIMARY
Ohio: 66 delegates at stake "conditional" mixed PRIMARY
Now look at the other states RP should do well in and is focusing on:
Washington: 40 delegates "proportional" unbound CAUCUS
Idaho: 32 delegates "conditional" mixed CAUCUS
Wyoming: 29 delegates "proportional" unbound CAUCUS
North Dakota: 28 delegates "proportional" unbound CAUCUS
Alaska: 24 delegates "proportional" 15% threshold CAUCUS
Virginia: 49 delegates "conditional" modified PRIMARY
The other Super Tuesday states remaining:
Georgia: 76
Tennessee: 58
Massachusetts: 41
Oklahoma:43
Vermont: 17
Yes I understand no one knows all of the actual delegate counts from these proportional states and caucuses so I left the totaling by each state won by candidate. With the exception of VA where I split it 25/24 for RP.
Total RP potential delegates: 40+32+29+28+24+25 = 178
Total Mitt: 25+29+30+17 = 101
Total Rick: 66+58+43 = 167
Total Newt: 76 = 76
If my scenario above were to play out exactly, you would hear from MSM that Rick Santorum was the big winner, followed by Mitt licking his wounds on second and Newt and RP battling for third.
But you look at those numbers and tell me who won Super Tuesday (including AZ and MI because they are close on the calendar)?
Looks a whole lot different when you look at numbers on paper, doesn't it?
I get FIRED up when I see these numbers!
"Criticizing Ron Paul for not passing bills in Congress is like criticizing a nun in a whore house for not turning tricks. He was there to stop the "whoring," not become one!" ~ Blake Buffington
By all means, let's look at these states
State Ron Paul's 2008 finish
Washington 4th (7.65%)
Idaho 2nd (23.72%)
Wyoming 6th (o%)
North Dakota 3rd (21.37%)
Alaska 3rd (17.24%)
Virginia 3rd (4.50%)
Georgia 4th (2.92%)
Tennessee 4th (5.61%)
Massachusetts 4th (2.65%)
Oklahoma 4th (3.34%)
Vermont 3rd (6.67%)
Except for Idaho, North Dakota and Alaska, I don't see a whole lot there to get excited about. Yes, 2012 is not 2008 and I see Santorum eventually imploding; however, in order for Ron Paul to be the assured recipient of that implosion, his foreign policy positions must be seen as credible. That will not happen unless the campaign addresses them in some aggressive manner.
No argument primary states pose challenges....
Super Tuesday may wind up being the death knell for Newt which will narrow the field (not necessarily a good thing) and if my scenario plays out and Ron is the Super Tuesday victor (even if he is portrayed as a strong second to either of Mitt or Rick) there can be no denying the reality of his viability. I believe Ron will finally experience the "surge" the others have received but Ron's surge will be sustained and continue to grow.
Straw polls in the caucus states render the % of votes from 2008 somewhat irrelevant. The Ron Paul supporters are there in the right places to win those delegate spots. The remaining primaries should get the minimal 100% boost (could be higher) which Ron has showed consistently hitting if not more than that.
State Ron Paul's 2008 finish + 100% improvement for 2012
Washington 4th (7.65%)Caucus 15.3%
Idaho 2nd (23.72%) Caucus 47.44%
Wyoming 6th (o%) Caucus Who else besides maybe Rick is viable in WY?
North Dakota 3rd (21.37%) Caucus 42.74%
Alaska 3rd (17.24%) Caucus 34.48%
Virginia 3rd (4.50%) Primary with only two choices 51%
Georgia 4th (2.92%) Primary 5.84%
Tennessee 4th (5.61%) Primary 11.21%
Massachusetts 4th (2.65%) Primary 5.30%
Oklahoma 4th (3.34%) Primary 6.68%
Vermont 3rd (6.67%) Primary 13.34%
There are enough caucus states to achieve a Super Tuesday victory. This is the battle I believe must be won to achieve greater acceptance in the mainstream. No more "he hasn't won a state", etc.
Snagging proportional delegates in those others states will be key as well and perhaps more important is getting Ron Paul supporters in as delegates even if they are bound to someone else. Should RP not achieve enough delegates to win outright, we will need them come the second round of voting.
"Criticizing Ron Paul for not passing bills in Congress is like criticizing a nun in a whore house for not turning tricks. He was there to stop the "whoring," not become one!" ~ Blake Buffington
Not to mention....
Ron Paul may be the only candidate in that stretch to win 5 count em' 5 states!
Especially if you count Super Tuesday only states. Ron Paul will win more states than any other candidate.
"Criticizing Ron Paul for not passing bills in Congress is like criticizing a nun in a whore house for not turning tricks. He was there to stop the "whoring," not become one!" ~ Blake Buffington
I've said this before, I'll say it again...
YOU are winning!
Look, forget the polls, they're all made up anyway.
and besides, even assuming some level of certainty in those highly suspect polls, Romney had a huge lead, now it's Santorum.
So what does that tell you?
The support for those clowns is a mile wide and an inch deep.
There is no conviction at all in anything they say. It's just a mass of people shifting their vote from one fear-based candidate to the next, "because the media says so".
Eventually, the new wing of the republican party (that's you guys) will completely own the discourse and the whole party.
Keep the pressure up. You are doing a tremendous job, all of you. Stay positive and stay professional.
This is your victory. And this is a fight for truth that will continue. It will get easier later on as more and more join with you, but right now it's going to require maximum effort and maximum commitment.
Eventually you are going to convert key people that are GOP diehards and I already see that happening. They realize that there is no reasonable and prosperous way of life forward for any of us if they continue to support a failed cause and failed candidates.
So do not worry. Stay convicted. This whole episode in Maine is a gift. It is completely backfiring. People will not stand for it. And right now Paul has the underdog position. Everybody loves an underdog.
If you're not first...you're last! ~ Reese Bobby
but...
in Ohio, Santorum is only partially on the ballot.
We need to push Michigan, I have heard they are telling Democrats to vote Paul.
In Ohio I'd push Romney - so the delegates are broken up
Michigander here
I read a story about the democrats pushing for everyone to vote RP in order to mess with the primary, sounds good to me, I hope they all come out and vote for Dr. Paul, in order for RP to get any of the delegates here, he needs to break the 15% threshold.
wtf
you talking about?
Paul never intended to compete in any of those States...
This is about the caucus States.
WA on the 3rd.
ID, AK, ND on the 6th.
Buck up.
I heard this delegate thing in 2008...
Yeah, it REALLY worked out for us in 2008. HOW do you think the grassroots is going to react if Ron Paul continues to get clobbered in primary states, but wins the nomination with delegates.
Hey, I plan to run as a delegate, but I'm telling you perception=reality and 3rd and 4th place finishes in key states are going to kill momentum.
Apples and Oranges...
.
that is the strategy
and we should win ND and AK, I don't know enough about WA and ID
Look Bob, what do you expect?!
When those 3 candidates have the BLESSING OF THE FRIGGIN' GOP, FREE MEDIA BLESSINGS DAILY, and money (at least Romney) from Goldman Sucks.
Bottom line:
The POLITICAL PARTY MACHINE & the Federal Reserve Gestapo don't give a crap which one of those 3 make it, because they know that they will pulverize them in the election against Obummer. And, even if Obummer were to lose (and he won't), then, they have the nuisance of training the new puppet how to read the teleprompter and how to play golf and take trips!
DR. RON PAUL IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE THEY WANT TO SQUISH & SUPPRESS. HE IS THE ONLY MAN THEY ARE FEARFUL OF. HE IS THEIR ONLY, ONLY THREAT.
So, I wouldn't worry your pretty little head over Santorum or any of the rest. More corruption is being exposed to the public weekly. Wait and see. And, it doesn't matter if they rig the elections at this point. IN FACT, EXPECT THE RIGGING. And, keep talking, because word of mouth travels FAST...and maybe, someday things will come together somehow, someway.
Ahh...
I forgot WY, them too.
Wa should be a good one for
Wa should be a good one for us! Even saw CNN saying that Ron could likely pick up Washington!
Rally at THE BATTLE OF TAMPA
Bob...why so negative?
Bob...why so negative?
Rally at THE BATTLE OF TAMPA
I've been pillored lots of times here for stating the obvious.
Trust me, nothing I have received here compares with many of the websites where I have defended Ron Paul. I'm stating categorically, as unfair as the other candidates and MSM have been, the campaign has been worse for not addressing the foreign policy issue face on. There are a LOT of Republicans, including Republican politicians that would oppose the wars and our foreign policy if foreign policy experts who support our positions received more coverage. Outside of the "Freedom Watch" and "Stossel," WHERE do you hear that? WHY do you think Fox Business CANCELLED "Freedom Watch," bad ratings? I hope the superPAC is running that 14 minute video they ran in Florida in other primary and caucus states. Why hasn't the campaign hired some of those retired from the intelligence community to promote Dr. Paul's positions? I can't tell you how many fellow supporters have told me how Ron Paul has disappointed them by not speaking up when his rebuttal times is denied at debates. After that, my second biggest criticism of Dr. Paul's debate performance was not rebutting Brett Baier's challenge of "left of Barack Obama" on Iran. Why didn't the good doctor say, "Peace is not a 'left' or 'right' issue and nor is 'national survival'. Attacking Iran with economic sanctions destabilizes an already dangerous situation. Do you WANT a regional war that could crush Europe and could involve BOTH Russia and China against us when Iran is no more likely to have nuclear weapons than Iraq had?" I can only guess how that 14 minute video would have been received in South Carolina, but I bet it would have elevated Dr. Paul to a strong third place, not a weak fourth. Imagine where Santorum would be right now, if he had placed a weak fourth in South Carolina, which I had predicted when I expected the campaign to release "foreign policy" ads.