267 votes

Guess What? SC Primary Results in Question!

I received an e-mail from our meet-up which I'm editing but for to include this statement:

I have some significant information that I need to share with all of you regarding vote fraud in the SCGOP Primary. I have met with SCGOP Chairman already and am meeting again next Wednesday in Columbia. You will want to hear what I have discovered.

I've have uploaded the SCGOP Primary Vote Analysis to Google Docs: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B_wWkfsJPShUMWQxMTc2NzgtM2M...

and would like commentary any of you analytical gurus might like to add here or additional insights. This is very important to us in South Carolina! Thanks!

****Analyst Adds Update****

Hey guys. I just want you all to know that I have graphed in detail all of the counties in NH, SC and Fla that have the precinct information available on the Election Commissions' website. I have amassed a couple of hundred graphs probably. The most difficult part of this is getting this information into a form that is brief but easy to understand. Please appreciate this.

There are surely exceptions to the following observations, but here are some generalities:

1. In any county where Ron Paul has more votes than Mitt Romney using the low vote total precincts, you get a ridiculous- looking curve like the one in Anderson County. (Anderson, Greenville, Spartanburg, and Oconee Counties). Mitt ends up at a vote total that could have been Paul's projected total and Paul crashes to the ground.

2. In the counties where Romney has more votes than Paul in the low vote total precincts, There is no ridiculous anomaly like the one in Anderson County.

3. In any race where Newt is ahead of Romney and Romney is anywhere close to Gingrich in vote total, Newt gets flipped by Romney (Richland, Charleston, and Beaufort Counties in SC) much like the maneuver in Anderson County where Mitt flips Paul. It appears to me that Newt actually won these counties as well as Polk and Duval Counties in Florida.

4. As I have laid out in my brief, fluctuations should occur in honest elections; however, these "flips" look to me like one candidate is suddenly losing his slope (established vote percentage) and another (Romney) is gaining at precisely the same percentage. My personal constitution screams to me "this phenomenon is not a normal occurrence!"

5. In almost all Counties, Mitt Romney gains hundreds- even more than a thousand- in the very largest precinct(s). Many instances this tail end gain appears to serve the purpose of draining Ron Paul just enough to be last place. (example: Charleston County SC). I'm not saying there isn't an honest explanation, but I want to hear one... that makes sense. Maybe in every single county Romney supporters turned out in "droves" at the very largest precinct(s)?

6. Most graphs follow a disturbing trend: Mitt Romney's vote percentage "line" looks more like a parabola curving upward and the other 3 candidates' lines like a parabola curving in the negative. This might could be explained in some honest way, but it looks like algorithms in voting machines to me. I invite intelligent discussion.

7. Yes- demographics can play a part, of course. I am NOT a Demographics expert. I do like math though.

8. I will release a procedure that will show all of you math analysts how to do this on your own. You will see the same anomalies as I see.

****Analyst Adds Greenville County Results****

The 2012 SC GOP Primary- Greenville
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B_wWkfsJPShUOGRmYjdlN2YtZDY...




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This is such excellent work

Did anything come from this? I believe that most Americans are not mathematically capable of understanding how these trends are impossible.

Super Big Thanks From N.

Super Big Thanks From N. California. Vote For Saint Paul 2012

Any update?

Any update?

Yes, the updates are thoroughly posted on RonPaulForums

It is definitive, statistical, mathematical proof of vote rigging through vote switching, Paul to Romney. The unprecidented Gingrich "surge" is also being analyzed.

You guys have been on this

You guys have been on this for awhile and appreciate the dedication.

Simply Awesome

.

Makes me wonder....

about what went down yesterday in Michigan. I cant stand Rick Santorum- but is there a chance that Romney stole the election from him in Michigan? All of the polls had shown that Sanatorium had the momentum, but somehow Romney won the state. ROMNEY NEEDED MICHIGAN- if he had lost it, his electability may have been in certain doubt. Think about Maine and Iowa- IMHO both were manipulated for a Romney victory.

It would be a major story if another campaign would start questioning the credibility of these elections. We shall see...

Visit https://soundcloud.com/politics-of-freedom for all recent Ron Paul interviews, speeches, debates, forums, panels, press conferences, news coverage, and Texas Straight Talk updates!

"Terrorism is the war of the poor, while war is the terrorism of

C_T_CZ's picture

Bump

Bump!

rEVOLutionary Ads: Because It's Better Than Sitting On Your Rump Doing Nothing™

Very Interesting ....

although we shouldn't be surprised

Any new news on this?

What has been discussed in your meetings and what is currently happening right now in terms of what's being done??

Bump

Bump

No activity lately - anyone have an update?

Any analysis on other counties? Thanks!

God grants liberty only to those who love it, and are always ready to guard and defend it. – Daniel Webster

Ron Paul Forums has also

Ron Paul Forums has also taken up this topic: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?361382-Flipping-...

Reading through others' replies

I'll preface this by saying that while I'm not a statistics major, I did create some pretty gnarly spreadsheets for fantasy football and baseball back in the days before the internet. Tiered scoring for yards gained, yard per attempt, total bases, crotch grabs, yadda yadda... Used to fax them out every week.

Oh, and last night I slept at a Motel 6.

But seriously...

I agree with two major points others have raised:

1. That more research needs to be done to correlate population density to RP's appeal. The idea the RP would do better in low population areas while simultaneously doing better with young voters seems incongruous. Perhaps there is already independently sourced data out there that correlates average age to population density in South Carolina. It seems more likely that high population areas have younger demographics, not vice versa.

2. That these kinds of patterns need to be found in multiple elections, especially those that don't include RP. Someone mentioned that it happened to Huckabee for example. Don't stop at presidential primaries either. Any election that might have been rigged is a candidate for scrutiny.

Oh, and Dr. Paul cured my addiction to sports.

Sports

I think I somewhat have an addiction to sports, but I think its more of like an escape. When my blood is not boiling from our illusory democratic process or people not understanding Ron Paul's message, watching a sporting event is often a nice getaway.

Minnesota

The nite of the Minnesota primary,using CNN 2012 Election Nite
website, I started keeping vote totals and their corresponding % of total vote for each candidate. After the first 10-12 % of the state totals were posted the % of votes for each candidate moved up or down 1 point. With all the different precincts and the varying demographics does this make sense? Of course I stayed with this project till 95% reported hoping Ron Paul would close the gap. It seemed that the vote totals were following an algorithm. Any thoughts?

jimt

This is beyond interesting.

This is beyond interesting. The Paul/Romney lines being inverted copies is just too strange. I do agree that it's still not proven though.

Is it possible that Romney and Paul have an inverse relationship due to being the two most divisive candidates to the GOP?

Data?

The reasoning in the pdf seems kind of shaky. A lot of it would be explained simply by Ron Paul tending to do better in smaller population areas, and Romney tending to do better in larger population areas. But someone below noted that if the data points are lining up very closely to straight lines ... that's fishy. Real data aren't so well behaved. But the graphs only show the trends, not the individual data points, so it's hard to really tell.

How about posting the datasets, and the links to the original sources, so other people can have a look? I'd definitely like to have a crack at it.

SC Data site

I found the data on South Carolina's Election Commison site:
http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/36831/67784/en/select-county.html

When I plotted the data I got the same results. To get the data you have to go to each county and go to the "report" tab.

Anyone

have a spreadsheet of the precinct by precinct results so that someone can verify these graphs? I'm searching for one right now and can't seem to find anything.

Secondly, someone needs to go through and prove that precinct size is not correlated with any other variables such as rural vs. urban and especially younger vs. older voters. As usual exit polls showed Ron Paul doing much better with younger voters and much worse with older voters. If for example all precincts have equal numbers of people eligible to vote in them, precincts with lower turnout could be because they are populated mostly by young people and precincts with high turnout could be because they have an older population. That correlation could explain these results.

Data

This was in one of the versions of the Google docs pdf submitted by the analyst.

http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/36831/67784/en/select-county.html

You can go to each county and download the data by precinct.

Where to find the data

I found the precinct data on the SC Elec commission website by going to each county and looking at the "report" tab:
http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/36831/67784/en/select-county.html

When I plotted it it lined up exactly like was shown.

You have my attention.

I'll be the first to admit I generally down-vote most of the "conspiracy" related stuff that gets posted on this site...much of it is far fetched and without actual evidence.

But this has my attention. I was a math/stat major and don't see anything obviously flawed. I'm still trying to think of a reasonable explanation. Nothing worse for RP and supporters than to make a big stink out of something like this and have it turn out to be completely and embarrassingly debunked.

Anyhow, I'm anxious to see any further updates as well as other counties. I'd also like to see the ones where Romney and Gingrich flipped. This may actually be more valuable than the Romney/Paul flips...it will gain more media attention.

Good work thus far and I'll certainly be checking back for updates on your analysis.

Excellent report

I live in Greenville county,and at a friends precinct (a high volume one),the machines went down.She stayed there to monitor the situation,and they tried to run her off,but she would not be moved.I will call her,and make sure that she reported it,I'm almost certain that she did.We have got to monitor closely at all precincts,most especially the high volume ones.

I'd be interested to see a

I'd be interested to see a chart on Story County in Iowa.

Similar results in 2008

It looks like Romney pulled a similar stunt in 2008. I was checking out the 2012 results for myself and decided to do a comparison to the 2008 results for a few counties and found that in at least two counties where Huckabee and Romney were close in votes: Beaufort and Charleston, it seems like the votes were flipped similar to these current examples.

PDF of those two counties: http://db.tt/HoN4q8Tv

Similar to the 2012 info I looked at, Romney is the only candidate that is consistently non-linear and breaks from his early trend-line to end up with more votes, and it seemed to be at the expenses of Huckabee.

Here is a link to the precinct data I used from 2008 for a few counties:
http://db.tt/T1IV9law

I pulled that 2008 data from the South Carolina website:
http://www.state.sc.us/cgi-bin/scsec/scsec-repprisw-011908f.pl

Analyst adds Greenville County Analysis

The 2012 SC GOP Primary- Greenville
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B_wWkfsJPShUNzQ4Zjk0NGYtNTE...

Freedom is not: doing everything you want to.
Freedom is: not having to do what you don't want to do.
~ Joyce Meyer

Very helpful and telling

Very helpful and telling addition. Two things though:

- on page 7, are the colors meant to be the other way around? The analyst says the page 7 chart is meant to show the election as it would have turned out, but the colours still show Romney is 2nd and Paul is last.

- also on page 7, it should say Romney is the "beneficiary" (rather than the benefactor)

Great analysis.

Thank you :)

we are all tired and need a fresh set of eyes. I've passed this proofing back to the author. So I'll just say for now: "hold for re-uploaded beautification" however the data is correct.

Edit:
New link for Greenville Analysis update =
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B_wWkfsJPShUOGRmYjdlN2YtZDY...

Freedom is not: doing everything you want to.
Freedom is: not having to do what you don't want to do.
~ Joyce Meyer

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