163 votes

The Real Delegate Score: Romney 93, Paul 82

Every media outlet seems to have a different delegate count. But almost invariably we're told Ron Paul is in last place and far behind the leader Mitt Romney.

But none of these delegate counters properly estimate how the caucuses will allocate their delegates. According to the Paul campaign, Ron is well positioned to win 50% of the delegates in Iowa, 75% in Minnesota, 50% in Colorado, and 75% in Maine. So what is likely to be the true delegate count once the caucus states select their national delegates?

Add together the bound delegates from New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada, and extrapolate the caucus states' delegates using the Paul campaign's estimates and you get:

Total Delegates (IA, NH, SC, FL, NV, MN, CO, ME)
Romney: 93 (6, 7, 2, 50, 14, 2, 7, 5)
Paul: 82 (13, 3, 0, 0, 5, 28, 17, 16)
Gingrich: 29 (0, 0, 23, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0)
Santorum: 25 (6, 0, 0, 0, 3, 7, 9, 0)
Unpledged: 14 (3, 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3, 3)

*Unpledged includes Huntsman's delegates in NH as well as unbound party leader delegates in certain states.

The caucus/convention process for selecting delegates has plenty of quirks along the way - the eventual delegates could be more evenly dispersed or could skew even more heavily to Paul as the majority candidate. But this is a far more accurate portrayal of the true state of play than allocating delegates proportionately to the straw poll or entirely to the straw poll leader.

And it shows that, for now, this is a two-man race in delegates between Paul and Romney.




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Washington Delegate Count

Jane, Where did those number's come from. I have searched and can't find these numbers. By the way I AM one of those Washington Ron Paul Delegate.

Joined the Liberty Movement in Anchorage, Alaska, 1977. Ron Paul supporter since 1983.
In Liberty from the Pacific Northwest.

And now get the other delgates and votes too!

Get aggressiv and educate the people on what the candidates really stand for!!!

Blackout the mass Media and put these flyers everywhere around your neighbourhood(mailboxes, cars..) voting places and everywhere you think they can change some minds and hearts.
They are free to print! If every Paul Supporter distributes a few hundred of them then it may push Paul in first place!

They inform the masses about what the candidates stand for and how great the ideas and integrity of americas future president Ron Paul is compared to his opponents:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/81315475/National-Comparison-Sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/?jhnxoxm84b4otc1

from:
http://www.dailypaul.com/217977/promotional-flyers-compariso...

If this is true...

Then RP has 49 more than Romney currently since he picked up 75 in WA and Romney only got 15?

Jane Aitken, 35-Year Veteran Teacher
Ron Paul 2008 Consultant
GOP Woman of the Year 2009
Founder NH Tea Party Coalition (NOT AFFILIATED WITH ANY FAKE 2009 GROUP)
Founder USPEINetwork @ Yahoo (Nat'l Edu Activism Group)
Board Coalition of NH Taxpayers

thats what i been

saying but everyone keeps telling me don't count your chickens before they hatch...ron paul has way more...have faith in our strategy...romney and frothy cant even find delegates fast enough.

I dunno man, it may be easy

I dunno man, it may be easy to create fraud by replacing votes, but its sure as hell hard to replace living breathing *people* with romulans.

How does anyone know how many

How does anyone know how many delegates ANYONE secured in the caucus states until the convention? I thought all the delegates from caucus states are unbound?

RP's plan is working...

Well at least in this OK county anyway:

http://tuttletimes.com/news/x1058961118/Ron-Paul-supporters-...

MIALIZ

Will the GOP steal the delegates?

Given all of the shenanigans that have gone on so far in this primary race, won't the GOP either steal the delegates or use some parliamentary procedure to refuse to seat them?

Michael

They will definitely try, but

They will definitely try, but what's the alternative? Even if we won the popular vote, if we didn't have the delegates they would have gone 'all technical' on us with delegates, so a technical delegate based approach is much more defensible imo.

From Ron Paul Iowa Delegate

Hi,I am a Ron Paul Iowa delegate and I have enough money and time to go all the way to the Florida National GOP convention. So even if I end up being an alternate delegate, I am going. Keep in mind to save to go to all the conventions in your state as a delegate or alternate and to make a reservation in Florida to stay in a motel, hotel or a Florida Ron Paul supporter. Even if you are not sure yet, you can pre-reserve while the rooms are cheap. Florida Ron Paul supporters can help the rest of us that have less funds to get a place to stay while in Florida. Orlando , baby ! They are expecting 50,000 people at the NRC! That is about 1000 from each state ! Even if you cannot go all the way, attend all state conventions to vote in other Ron Paul supporter delegates! Very important ! Make sure your state sends the most Ron Paul delegates, even alternates ! Support them with money if possible if they need it.

I'm a CO Delegate...

moving on to the State & District Assemblies in April. Wow, you got me really excited! I'm in it for the long haul too. Looking into booking a place to stay in FL is a great first step in making it a reality. What a Patriot Party that will be!

State delegations are housed

State delegations are housed together in specified hotels, so you won't have an opportunity to save money by reserving independent housing early.

jeff

"State delegations are housed together"

I don't like this !!!!!!! Why couldn't you choose where you want to stay ? Sounds a bit fishy to me.

"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross." - Sinclair Lewis

not clear

This part of your comment is unclear: "Even if you cannot go all the way, attend all state conventions to vote in other Ron Paul supporter delegates!"

What do you mean by that?

What this means

What this means is the soft delegates (I am one of them here in Iowa) will go on to the convention and vote for the fewer delegates who will move on. If you are one of the soft delegates, even if you can't go on to the national convention, at least show up to vote for the delegates you want to move on. If you don't, we don't have a chance! We can't win if you don't show up and vote for the delegates. The caucus was only the beginning. This is so important! I can't stress enough how important this is. The caucus delegates don't do anything for Ron Paul if they don't show up to vote for the delegates that will move on. In Iowa, I believe the date is March 10th.

Jason Burns

Welcome to the r3VOLuti0n!

http://r3VOLuti0n.com

thank you

I just wanted to be sure you weren't suggesting people go from state to state :)

Thank you for what you are doing in Iowa. Rock on!

hotel no choice

you do not get to choose your hotel etc. You have to stay at the gop approved hotel due to security is what i have heard from national delegates!

Ron Paul 2016

I Live in Tampa

I work within walking distance of the convention center. All the hotels in this area are nice and clean. No worries there. There is a wide range of cost though.

Delegations will be required

Delegations will be required to stay with their state delegations in specified hotels. Security is only one reason. (Whether or not a hotel is in a "bad area" is not the issue; the city will be in a literal lock down, so there won't be any "bad" areas anyway. Security is needed due to the threat of Occupy and similar militants who won't distinguish between mainstream GOP delegates and relatively sympathetic Ron Paul delegates.)

Access to the convention site will be tightly controlled. Credentials are distributed at the delegations' hotels, and transportation to and from the convention site is provided only on delegation buses.

You wouldn't want to be separate from your state delegation anyway. The [free] parties and peripheral events are beyond description. More importantly, you'll be an ambassador for the Ron Paul cause and, as such, should cultivate this invaluable opportunity to build relationships with your state Party's movers and shakers while demonstrating that Ron Paul supporters can be a viable and constructive part of Party leadership. Further, in the event of a brokered convention, it will be important to have cultivated relationships with any swingable voters and to "stay close" to the delegation's decision makers to be able to catch wind of any trouble.

jeff

Judgement

America is under judgement and the way Ron Paul is treated is indictative and has been indicative of "how" the evil works against the righteous. The liars and connivers and the corrupt system will win...but in the end they will lose. If truth can not prevail then lies and darkness have prevailed...but in the end this can not and will not stand.

Recently, I read a book titled: The Harbinger and truely believe this nation, which has been SO thoroughly corrupted from outside and within...that it will falter and fail. In fact, it will be attacked, damaged and possibly be destroyed.

It is obvious that Ron Paul is a true man...and even a prophet, if I might use that term. Did he not predict much that has transpired???? If the nation listens to the liars and the B.S. and ignores Ron Paul...they have done so at their own peril and they will "reap the whirlwind" when it comes.

America is being warned and the righteous have tried their best and they have done all that they could rightly do and now we will leave the rest to God.

God Bless Our Nation...a Nation conceived in Freedom from the very start...dedicated to that ideal, given to us by our Creator. We were offered His greatest blessings and now the Nation may suffer, because the free citzenry did not use their freedoms to protect the very liberty blessed to them. They squandered them in all manners possible.

Wake Up America Before It's too late!!! I pray it is not too late. God Help Us In Our Hour of Need!

All I can say is get ready

For railroaded county and state conventions. Fixed delegate lists pre-selected by GOP leadership. Ignored points of order. Busted or missing microphones. Credentials committee excommunications if they find out you're a Paul supporter. Mass walk-outs to ruin your quorum. Reconventions in secret locations or delegate selection by private teleconference (Nevada '08). Rejection of properly elected list of delegates and wholesale swap-in of some other list of delegates that is more 'reflective' of the straw poll (by GOP leadership Minnesota '08). And I'm sure there will be some new 'convention rules' and assorted dirty tricks for the 2012 process.

Then there's the national convention which will probably have gatekeeping and 'safeguards' unbeknownst to me or any of us. Certainly a credentials committee like the Eye of Sauron. Not trying to be defeatist....just saying nobody knows what our numbers will be at the national convention until August. A Paul delegate takeover at the national level is still a long shot. How long depends on how much additional fraud and dirty tricks they have planned for us.

Its sad that many of our elders in the GOP (i'm 32) are corrupt. And our elders in the MSM and government are corrupt. I can only pray they 'know not what they are doing', else why would they bestow such a barren legacy on their children and attempt to close the door on peaceful change that is desperately needed? If its all for money then what good is it to have your body sated and your mind entertained when your soul is empty?

I've Seen the Dirty Tricks

I've seen the dirty tricks at the county level. We voted in a Paul-friendly GOP Chairman and the incumbent conveniently disqualified enough membership applications to win his seat back. What an effing coincidence! This was in 2008. Since then, the Paulites have slowly increased their numbers within the REC and even elected a few to leadership positions. We'll take over the REC completely over the next couple of years as the old guard dies off (seriously, they'll die bc they're so old). The thing you have to remember is that for a lot of these local GOP folks, this is their life. Whereas it might just be one more thing that we do, that tiny little bit of power is everything to them. That's why they're willing to lie, cheat, and steal to hold on to it. That's why the Maine GOP Chairman is such a bastard. He's probably growing tired of exhausting all of his energy to keep the Paulites down. It's becoming more than he can handle.

They're Scared

And when I say "they" I don't mean all of them, I mean some individuals. (I'm reminded of the movie "Strictly Ballroom.")

Rather than coming in like a "revolution" you can try taking them out to coffee (or beer). If you can reduce the fear level, you'll get more principled results.

We're loud, we're young, and we wear slogans on shirts and carry big signs. We're scary. (I, of course, am a 56 year-old, white-haired, spinster aunt, but otherwise fit the description.)

What do you think? http://consequeries.com/

Don't foreget

The superdelegates that have already pledged their support for one candidate or another. Last count I saw was 18 for Romney, 3 for Gingrich and 1 each for Santorum and Paul.

If Santorum has 25 delegates

If Santorum has 25 delegates why are we wasting money attacking him exactly?

"Leo Strauss, Scoop Jackson & Irving Kristol can rot in hell"

Because Ron Paul becomes the clear and decisive NOT-Romney

And then it becomes a fast growing snowball / landslide.

.

Because right now he has

Because right now he has momentum. First off, this post is crazy. Unless someone knows every single delegate and knows exactly how they are going to vote come the convention, then this is just another estimate. Dont get me wrong, I would assume is is much closer than the MSM estimates, yet still an estimate.

Attacking Santorum, because he has momentum which can turn into delegates. The Paul campaign wants to always attack the leader. The reason: it is extremely unlikely that we win this without a brokered convention. Matter a fact that is what Paul's campaign is fuel by, the idea of a brokered convention.

Our goal is for not a single candidate to get 1,144 delegate, that way, when the nomination goes to brokered convention and the "bound" delegates (which are mainly Paul supporters) become unbound, they vote for Paul and we win 1,144.

Because the media wants to

Because the media wants to lavish so much attention on him.

statistics of 2008

does anyone one have the delegate count Paul ended up with in 2008?
So i can compare it with a possible delegate count in 2012