A question for all ECONOMIC BUFFS
Submitted by Stay Classy Liberty on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 16:03Hey there good people of DP! I was wondering what actually happens when a country DEFAULTS? I would rather get an explanation here than anywhere else.
If you guys and gals could answer these question as part of the explanation, it would rock my world. Real life examples, e.g. Iceland would be cool too
How would the repaying of the debt happen?
To 'liquidate' means?
I understand the purpose of competitive devaluation but how does this happen and how it affects prices
Would there be huge inflation or deflation as the economy contracts?
How could GOLD help?
In terms of fiscal policy, what happens with taxes and the budget?
When the Banks fail, what happens to our savings? Would the banks go bankrupt after they reimburse everyone? Is that even possible?
Be much appreciated guys!
















Here's a cool article that was posted in DP (I think)
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2011/08/25/why-iceland-shold-be...
Reports on the debt situation in Iceland.
Answers
When a Country defaults, the lenders don't get paid.
Lenders keep possession of any collateral in their possession, otherwise lose.
Liquidate means sell assets at todays market value and settle up their debts.
Competitive devaluation means each Central Bank prints more money to try to make their exports cheaper by devaluing the currency, so that country's products are more competitive in the international market. Commodity prices rise, though.
Inflation in commodities, deflation in assets that need financing (housing).
Gold protects your savings from Central Bank money printing.
Once a country defaults they must balance their budget.
In the US we have the FDIC that guarantees your deposits but that doesn't guarantee when you will be reimbursed, could be 6 months later.
That's the basics.
If the gov of the country has
If the gov of the country has the legal power to print money then the default would occur in the form of printing large sums of money.
The newly created money would be used for servicing the debts.
Printing so much money would lead to very serious inflation, possibly hyperinflation.
As inflation destroys the value of a currency the debts priced in that currency become easier to repay.
Money is simply a store of value. The way gold helps is by being a store of value which the government cannot steal away by creating inflation. If you look back at the purchasing power of the USD you'll see that it remained quite stable when it was backed by gold. During the 100 years from 1808 to 1908 the value of the gold backed USD barely budged at all. But look at how the value changed in the most recent 100 years... 97% of the value of the dollar has been lost.
When a gov defaults, taxes would probably go up and the budget would probably be cut to the bone.
When the banks fail the FDIC is supposed to cover up to certain amounts. Problem is that the FDIC does not have all the money to cover anything beyond relatively minor losses to the banking system. If there was a huge banking crisis the FDIC would probably be wiped out immediately with no money for the accounts that they insure. I'm not sure what the gov would do. Maybe print up all that new money so the FDIC could cover. Maybe borrow if any other country was foolish enough to continue lending that much to us. Another option would simply be to announce that accounts would be repaid over a long period of time (that's what they would say instead of creating a larger panic by telling people they simply don't have the money.) Most likely would be to print the money... and that would cause more inflation.
...
Example of Bankrupt nation
Just look at our selves in 1933 the USA did go Bankrupt, they confiscated all the gold in the country. The gold was given to the FED for the debt, I am sure all that gold is now residing in the Bank of Rothschild.
It is even believed that all the gold in Fort Knox is just gold plated tungsten bars.
Gold standard: because man can not be trusted to control his greed
Faith
1) What actually happens when a country DEFAULTS?
Don't confuse a country with a government. It is the government that borrows and spends, not the country.
A government can default for several reasons. It may be it disappears when it is overthrown. The new government does not recognize the debt of the old one. Those who lend to governments are generally given bonds in return. Bonds issued by governments that cease to exist, like Czarist Russia or the Confederate States of America, where the government that replaces it repudiates the debt, are not repaid and the lender or holder of the bond is not repaid.
Governments that cannot repay bonds, but remain in power, and have control of money printing authority, will print it, such as Zimbabwe, causing rampant inflation. The bonds may be nominally obligated, but the currency becomes worthless as lending to the government stops and is replaced by money printing. Weimar Germany, under the burden of Versailles Treaty obligations inflated until the obligations were ultimately repudiated. The hyper-inflation causes the economy to collapse as division of labor, is destroyed along with the ability to contract and plan.
If the country doesn't have the power to print, such as Greece under the euro doesn't have the ability to hyper-inflate its way out. In this case the politically connect will probably get paid back while everyone else will take a loss.
Default means the debt is not repaid - either partially or entirely.
2) How would the repaying of the debt happen? Hold on to your Confederate money. The South shall rise again. Repayment doesn't happen. Those holding the bonds will not get their money back.
3) To 'liquidate' means? To dispose of the debt. It can be
liquidated by either being paid off or written off. In the case of default, the obligations are written off and removed from the balance sheets. Nobody is repaid and they no longer expect to be.
4) Competitive devaluation: how does this happen and what is the effects on prices?
When a currency is devalued, what often happens is a "bank holiday" is declared. The government closes the banks so people cannot withdraw their savings to spend it before the currency is devalued. When the currency is devalued, prices go up. Debtors win. Creditors, and savers lose. When the banks re-open any savings on deposit is now worth much less than when the banks closed for the "holiday." So is any debt owed.
5) Would there be huge inflation or deflation as the economy contracts?
Inflation and deflation are independent of the contraction of an economy. In the case of fiat currency, if money is being created as the real economy shrinks there will be inflation. If the money supply shrinks because debt is being written off and destroyed through bankruptcy fast than the economy shrinks, then there will be deflation.
The money supply is not static prices will change with the amount of money in circulation relative to the goods and services concurrently on the market.
6) How could GOLD help? How could it help what? The government has no control over the value of gold. Holding gold prevents the government from stealing the purchasing power of personal savings through revaluing the local fiat currency in held in private bank accounts. If an individual owns an ounce of gold that can be traded for 8 months worth of electrical power use before the bank holiday, he can probably trade it for about 8 months of electrical service after it - that is, if power remains available. An equivalent bank account in the local currency's value may only be able to buy one month of service after the revaluation
7) In terms of fiscal policy, what happens with taxes and the budget?
The question is too vague. When a government defaults on its debt, people who want to not throw their money away will stop lending to the government. The government will not be able to borrow except from a central bank it controls, if it controls one. Being unable to borrow means it will either have to steal more - starving the private economy from which it gets its revenue through higher taxation, if it can do that without capital fleeing from its grasp, or else it must stop spending more than the revenue currently available.
8) When the Banks fail, what happens to our savings?
Banks borrow short and lend long. If a bank fails, it means it cannot meet its short-term obligations. People want their money and the bank doesn't have it. It has been loaned out. If the borrowers default, the bank loses money and cannot repay depositors.
In a fractional reserve system, more is loaned out than is on deposit. The whole system is based on fraud. In order to protect the fraud, the government has insured the bank accounts. That too is a fraud, but it has worked to prevent bank runs, as it was designed to do.
9) Would the banks go bankrupt after they reimburse everyone?
What generally happens is the assets of the bank are sold to another bank. Insured deposits can be claimed by their depositors.
10) Is that even possible? Under a fiat money system, all money is a promise. It is "faith and credit." It is as big or as small as your trust in the system.
[F]orce can only settle questions of power, not of right. - Clyde N. Wilson
Wow thanks for the time!
Sweet read!
Work like you don't need the money, love like you've never been hurt and dance like no one is watching.
The answer is that it depends on the country that is defaulting.
Iceland is now doing pretty well.
17 February 2012 Last updated at 12:03 ET
Iceland debt 'safe to invest' after ratings upgrade
Iceland is safe to invest in again, according to Fitch, which has upgraded its credit rating three years after its economy spectacularly collapsed.
Fitch raised Iceland's sovereign rating by one notch, to BBB- from BB+, meaning that the country's debt is now "investment grade".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17075011
Zimbabwe is much different than Iceland.
http://www.gfmag.com/gdp-data-country-reports/143-zimbabwe-g...
What happens to my mortgage
What happens to my mortgage if banks default??? I'm in the early stages of building a home on 5 acres and we've been going back and forth on proceeding.
Part of me says, buy a smaller home for cash and not worry monetarilly BUT smaller homes don't have acreage here so I'd be in a community with lots of people. The other part of me says, put all my money in my house because it's not gonna be worth squat if I keep it in currency. And, if inflation hits HARD, my mortgage would be really cheap. Plus, on my 5 acres I can have crops, chickens, and some goats. But, if the bank defaults, what happens to the mortgage?
Nothing.
If the bank that holds your mortgage goes bankrupt, all that happens is that some other bank buys your mortgage, which means you send your checks to a new address, that's it.
Of course, with a little luck, your mortgage could get lost in the chaos of a bankruptcy! But don't bank on it..O, and on that note, make sure you have all the proper documents in your possession, in case your bank does go bankrupt and records get lost.
Thanks!!! Any thoughts on if
Thanks!!! Any thoughts on if it's a good idea to buy right now?
My advice:
Yes, it's a very good idea to buy right now, but there is a way to do it.
First, find the property that suits your needs best and take out a 30 year bank loan to buy it. With historically low rates you should be able to get a very low payment. Don't bite off more than you can chew, and don't give up all your cash. You want to pay minimums. In other words, it sounds counter intuitive but you want to leave the debt there.
Next, DO put your cash into gold/silver. Just make sure you have enough income to meet your minimum mortgage. Then wait for the hyperinflation/crash to inflate the debt away. You'll be able to pay off your mortgage with a bit of your silver/gold. (be sure you have other necessities taken a care of first!)
Thanks so much for taking
Thanks so much for taking your time to help!
This is something that I was trying to wrap my head around
I am underwater with my home and I always threw a few extra dollars at my principal. However, I have stopped doing that recently because the money seems to lose value faster than me paying off the interest. If the dollar does start failing, will my home be ultra cheap to pay off? or will they convert the loan into a silver based denomination or something? I follow your practice to some extent. I am not a rich man, but my savings and liquid cash goes to buying silver(i can't afford much gold). I keep enough around to pay my bills and about three months out on my mortgage, but nothing would make me happier than being able to make out on a collapsing dollar.
Yes
A big mistake people make right now is paying off debt.
I've been advising this since the '07/08 election, and people (even here) thought I was a bit crazy ;)
It's an interesting situation, but our economic position is really out of whack. Up is down and right is left. Bad behavior gets rewarded and conventional wisdom is pretty much out the door. The best people can do is take advantage of the situation.
When the dollar crashes things will be re-valued. Things which don't have value now will, and things of high value (like fancy cars) will be worth less.
The thing common to all people, however, is food and shelter. I highly advise securing these things first (and the means to defend).
People should think financially from this perspective. People without a home should buy one on loan as I described. Those with a mortgage should pay the minimum and place cash into gold/silver. Pay minimums on all debt. The legally binding contracts all list $. As long as you have physical gold and silver after the crash you will be able to buy enough $ to fully honor all debt commitments.
Those without silver/gold will be in trouble, though, because there will be no employment/means of acquiring dollars.
Ask your question here...
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/
Invest in Liberty, one Apartment deal at a time with me. Get a check each month as a passive investor, just ask me how.
The US has defaulted many times.
1933 confiscation of private citizens gold and revaluing gold from $20 to $35.
1965 the removal of 90% silver coins from circulation
1971 the removal of gold backing to foreign central banks
1972 (?) the removal of 40% JFK half dollars
1982 the removal of 100% copper pennies from circulation
Staying on this course the future will see: aluminum coins, possibly plastic coins, then elimination of all coins as $1 will be smallest required for any transaction. Lastly, as the dollar devalues to the point that the ink and paper cost more than $1, you will see many more zeroes. Of course we may be on entirely electronic money supply by then.
as far as banks failing.
Check this out.
http://articles.latimes.com/1991-01-03/business/fi-10725_1_r...
I remember this from when I was in RI.
RI raised the sales tax "temporarily" to fund the bailout.
That tax rate is still in place I think.
A Few Answers
Some of your questions aren't really specific enough to answer, and others would take more time than I have, but here are a few things to think about.
England defaulted in the '70s. You might want to look at what happened there for an example.
The debt will never be payed, either in this country or any other. It is literally impossible. In fact, there aren't enough dollars in existence to pay all the debts owed in dollars when you count the interest. We have a debt based currency and defaulting is an inevitability built into the system. No country will ever pay off all its debts nor are they really expected to. It's how the system is set up.
To liquidate basically means going bankrupt, or writing debts off the books after you've collected as much as you can. The rest is literally erased and counted as lost.
Inflation and deflation aren't really determined by whether or not an economy is contracting. Under our current system, a lot of it would depend on what the Fed decided to do, how confident people felt about the currency, the velocity of money, etc.
Under our current system, if banks fail you are reimbursed by the FDIC. However, the FDIC doesn't actually have that much money, so ultimately if enough banks failed all at once, we would rely on either the Fed as the lender of last resort, or the Treasury could directly pay if the Congress chose to do so. If the Fed stepped in the money would be created, which means the money you got back would be worth a lot less. If Congress stepped in, they would have to borrow the bailout money from somebody else (possibly the Fed)since we run perpetual deficits as it is.
And when a bank fails, that means the bank is bankrupt. That's the definition of a failed bank.
Thank you!
Much appreciated
Work like you don't need the money, love like you've never been hurt and dance like no one is watching.
What happens if a nation defaults...
...depends on the economic situation of that nation.
In general, though: 1) the creditors get wiped out and this has some effect on the economy (depending on who the creditors are: e.g. domestic banks, foreign government, etc), 2) the defaulting government loses its access to capital markets for some period of time until trust is regained (just like a personal bankruptcy), and 3) the defaulting government is freed of the burden of repayment and is forced to balance its budget.
There's another consequence for a nation like the U.S. whose currency is widely used abroad. We have a massive trade deficit, and have for decades. This means that foreigners (government and individuals) have accumulated a lot of dollars. What do they do with them? So far, they have invested most of them in U.S. government bonds. If the U.S. defaulted, they wouldn't be investing in those bonds, but they're not going to just sit on the cash either. They would use it to buy things in the U.S. - stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, commodities, etc. This flow of dollars back to the U.S. ("repatriation") will cause inflation.
Now, back to point #1 above (creditors getting wiped out). Banks are major creditors of all nations: i.e. they own government bonds. If a nation defaults, then those bonds held by the banks become worthless. These are fractional reserve banks. They lend in proportion to their capital reserves: the more reserves the more they lend, the less reserves the less they lend. If suddenly a large portion of their capital reserves (some government bonds) become worthless, then they have to lend less. They may actually have to sell assets to raise capital...just like when mortgage-backed securities suddenly became worthless in 2008. All this has a deflationairy effect. The U.S. is a special case. The U.S. bond market is the bedrock of the international financial system. All banks hold treasuries, the capital reserves of many banks consists largely of treasuries. A default on all these bonds leaves a gaping hole in the balance sheets of the banks; they would have to drastically cut credit expansion and sell other assets to raise capital. Most of the major banks would be unable to survive a U.S. government default; they would go bankrupt, and their assets would be bought by new banks with sounder balance sheets.
All things considered, a default is MUCH better than continuing to service the debt by inflating. The reason default is a bad word is because it harms the banks the most, whereas the banks are the major beneficiaries of inflation - and the banks run this circus. But default would be best for the people.
Great explanation!
Thank you so much
Work like you don't need the money, love like you've never been hurt and dance like no one is watching.
When a country defaults the
When a country defaults the creditors lose their money like with any default.
The repayment of debt would not happen. This is what "liquidate the debt" means.
Devaluation of a currency simply means that it falls in value, which means that import prices will go up. But it also helps exports as foreigners can buy the country's products cheaper and the increased export then helps the economy recover. This is self regulating if left to the market.
Gold helps prevent a default as it is impossible to just print money if money is fixed to Gold.
In a free society you would lose your savings if a bank fails. Knowing this people will be more careful and they will choose their banks carefully. In Iceland the Government refused to bail out the banks, so foreign banks lost the money they had lent to the Icelandic banks. These loans were "liquidated" and the lenders lost their money but the economy could then recover quickly because the loans no longer had to be repaid.
The waking up manual: http://www.dailypaul.com/168937/the-waking-up-manual-how-to-...
Thank you Lars!
Much appreciated
Work like you don't need the money, love like you've never been hurt and dance like no one is watching.
If a company goes bankrupt
If a company goes bankrupt the debt is liquidated. This means that the creditors get all the assets and the company ceases to exist. If the company has a bank loan of $ 1 mill. then the bank writes off this loan and the bank gets the machinery and other assets which the bank can then sell to recover some of the losses.
The same principle applies when a country goes bankrupt. The "assets" of the country is its people. The creditor or bank is the international banks / central banks that take the "assets" by making the country tax its people and pay the money back to the banks. This is what is happening in Greece.
But countries can't really go bankrupt because countries don't really exist. If a government can't pay then who owes that money? Noone because we are not the government. So when countries - or more correct governments - go bankrupt no one should have to pay and the lender should lose all the money and the debt be liquidated.
The waking up manual: http://www.dailypaul.com/168937/the-waking-up-manual-how-to-...
Murray Rothbard
talks about the option of putting your money in loan banking or deposit banking (in an ideal economy..gold standard no fractional reserves etc.)....loan banking being a case in which your money could be lent out and in turn you'd make interest...but deposit is just you sticking your money in the bank and paying a storage fee of sorts....your money would physically have to be at the bank and wouldn't be able to be lent out...hence no risk of you ever losing your money in that type of situation. Not the case with loan banking.....if the bank makes unwise investments it could potentially wipe out your money...because it isn't physically at the bank...and you take on that risk to earn interest on your savings. This way people know what they're getting themselves into and can take on what risk they feel comfortable with.
Yes
After WW2 people kept their money under their pillow, no reason to trust anybody else to look after it. More people should think like that today and we would be ok.
The waking up manual: http://www.dailypaul.com/168937/the-waking-up-manual-how-to-...
Government defaults and the market
A good source of books and comments on government defaults is, of course, the Mises Institute:
http://www.mises. org
A book that shows the coming of the default and how it was predictable from the Austrian (Mises) viewpoint is "Deep Freeze" by Bagus and Howden.
Other free market economists have supporting views even if they do not have a strict Austrian view. Paul's view is something of a "humble" Austrian view.
My own view goes something like this:
In some sense the free market exists in an environment that (for some reason) tends to protect peoples fundamental rights, in terms of natural law that means these actionable wrongs are discouraged: murder, theft, assault, fraud, contract violation, false witness of such, and threats of such.
The market is less free when a powerful force, such as a government interferes with that. Default is such a case.
However, the market always exists. People aways make decisions based on improving what is important to them. That certain decisions have different values or, in some cases, high costs, does not change this.
A sudden change in the value of some paper and the value of paper created in the future does not change the fundamental market mechanism.
People of the nation will cooperate through market interactions in optimizing solutions. The less the government helps in that, the better.
A clean and simple default and moving on is best.
I don't have to be able to model everything to know this.
Ron's speech about default during the debt ceiling "crisis"
http://www.dailypaul.com/171234/floor-speech-on-debt-ceiling...
Hi Stay Classy Liberty
To answer your question you have to first specify which country?
Greece would be different than the US, for example, because the US can (and would) simply print more of their currency to avoid defaulting. That would have the effect of depreciating the currency and (hyper)inflation, but the country wouldn't technically default. The currency simply ends up worthless.
On the other hand is a country like Greece, which can't simply print more euros. In that case, you have a mess, which we are likely to see the result of quite soon, because not only can the currency itself be threatened but also the member states still using it. (this doesn't even get into the domino affect threatening other economies) The best they can hope for is trying to control the damage sustained as a result of kicking Greece out of the euro.
Both Fed and ECB create money
Philipp Bagus has a very good description (with pictures!) of how the Fed and the ECB create new money and what it means in terms of moral hazard for individual European states:
http://mises.org/daily/5575