Evaluating things at this stage of the game.Submitted by Super Bowl Dave on Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:00
Ron Paul has some hard-core supporters and a lot of support among Democrats, Independents and young people.
But that's not enough to win a GOP nomination.
You have to have support of the age 50-70 voting bloc of quiet, stale, uninformed baby-boomers who vote RELIGIOUSLY every election.
They don't have bumper stickers. They don't show up at rallies. They barely pay attention, aside from reading editorials in their local paper and watching Fox News. But THEY VOTE.
THEY ALWAYS VOTE!
They decide the primaries. There may be SOME voting fraud, but clearly there are still masses choosing Frothy and Mitt.
Ron Paul has not reached those voters. They are not listening. Frothy has proved you don't need money to reach these people.
If he wanted to reach them, he would have had to have run a stealthier campaign and realized from the outset he'd have to revamp his foreign policy to appeal to them. He would have had to have made a mid-stream foreign policy narrative change around December.
The foreign policy issue is the number one problem that has CRUSHED him this whole way (despite the incredible gains he's made over 2008). It literally caused 60% of Republican voters to just STOP LISTENING or paying attention to him at all.
"I'm just not sure about his foreign policy..."
They LITERALLY do not think about it any deeper beyond that single talking point. Once that PERCEPTION stuck, it was over. You can't win an election going around the country "educating" people about the vagaries of foreign policy. The anti-Muslim rhetoric and fear-mongering runs VERY DEEP in this country and many Republicans are utterly seduced and taken in by it. It's an emotional, gut thing. It's not rational. They see Ron Paul as either being weak or "liberal" on national defense, and it is grounded in very real perceptions propagated by a campaign that didn't understand how vital it was to shape this narrative.
I'm not suggesting that he would have had to lie or deceive, but he COULD have re-worded much of his rhetoric (which has been heavily hashed over on here on how he could do that).
Ron Paul's laying the groundwork for his son and trying to wake up the next generation, and that's admirable.
But he's not doing a lot to reach Republicans. He didn't show up for a big Republican Women's meeting in Arizona (the other three did). He didn't meet with Gov. Jan Brewer (the other three did). He didn't show up at CPAC (the other three did).
I've noticed this for a while -- he's AWOL when the other guys are showing up for Republican functions. He's just holding rallies and people of ALL political persuasions are showing up.
It's almost like he's running a national campaign, not a Republican primary campaign.