15 votes

What is happening in Virginia?

Virginia should have been the perfect storm...

- Its a BIG state, its an important state!
- Newt and Santorum are out
- Its finally the one-on-one matchup we've been waiting for!
- The state leans a little left
- And its an open primary

A win in Virginia would catapult this campaign and no doubt be the biggest story coming out of Super Tuesday. The upside would be historical.

If ever there was a state to go all-in on it would seem to me that this may have been it.

But it hasn't seemed to me like there was much focus from the campaign on Virginia. Was there a significant effort to win Va - did I miss it? Articles I read say Romney has a 30+ point lead still.



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My precinct was dead today...

I voted at about 10:30, and I was only the 30th person to cast a vote there. The "staff" had to leave their coffee break to come help me. No signs for any candidate outside. I would think low turnout would be good for Ron Paul since we know that most of us will vote. Praying for a miracle today.

Low low turnout. The media

Low low turnout.

The media talking heads are predicting that Romney will take Va. easily.

Let's hope otherwise.

when I voted

I find it funny that in all the times I voted at my polling station, there were never any rules or laws posted about passing out information or talking to people about the choices. There has always been signs posted within 40 feet stating nothing beyond this point. This year there are no signs for either Paul or Rommney, no one is allowed in the parking lot except to vote and leave. The big one is a new sign on big white paper outlining all the do's and dont's and the Legal class 1 misdemeanor that you will be subject too if you ignore it. I asked them about it and they said they always post the sign. I told them I had voted there for the last 15 years, first time I ever saw it. One of the people in the polling station stated (with a chuckle) that I must have been there at night. I politely made eye contact with him and stated, Sir please don't insult me, I can read, and that sign was never here before. he quickly claimed he did not mean it as an insult to which I stated, Yes sir, you did.
My brother voted in another area and told me he saw the sign posted there as well. (mind you the last time I was at the polling station two people ran up to me to provide thier free information for thier candadate, but...it doesn't bother me too much considering....)

1. I walked to the polling station on the side of a busy mainstreet of town.
2. I was wearing my Ron Paul Ballcap, and Revolution shirt.

maybe this is nothing to some, but:

1a. The laws can't prevent your choice of clothing and it is actually exempted from the law.
2a. I effectively became a walking billboard sign for anyone who passed me (many of which actually were looking at my shirt) as I walked to and from the polling station.

PS. My shirt looks good with the little "I voted" sticker accessory, so I am happy.

My wife will be voting when she gets off tonight, we as a family will all be wearing our Ron Paul clothing, and we will wait inside as she votes. As for any Virginia Paul supporters who may read this the polls close today at 7pm, please, please be there to cast your middle finge...ahhh, I mean "vote" at the establishment.

The first of my ancestors arrived in 1687, Indentured to serve another for 4 years, we fought in the Revolutionary war, Civil war, WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, and Served during Desert Shield/Storm, Now my Family and I serve The "Revolution"

Washington DC will NOT vote for Ron Paul

In fact, the farther geographically the states are from DC the better he does. It was a fantasy for some to think we would win Virginia.

The key is how the delegates are split.

30 of the delegates are given proportionally to the winner of each congressional district. ... So if Paul gets 20% of the vote he can still get 0 delegates unless he wins a district. Paul needs to win at least a few of the Southern districts of Virginia in order to pick up delegates. That's why it's critical for people in VA to work on getting as many of their apathetic friends and family members to go vote for Paul.

If you are in Virginia go find every Santorum and Gingrich voter you can and make sure they go vote against Romney. Find every voter who really isn't paying attention and doesn't give a flip and tell them that it's really, really important to you that they go vote for Paul. Beg if you have to.

If Paul just wins a few districts in VA then it's a victory for him. He'll pick up delegates. Make it happen.

Virginia does not lean "a little left"

You're implying Virginia is fertile ground for the revolution, but it is likely one of the worst states for Ron. It's a big diverse state whose Republican coalition is full of evangelicals, security soccer moms, business and political leaders in NoVa, government workers, good ol' boys, retired military, etc., none of them particularly favorable to Ron. It's a primary whose electorate will be skewed to older voters. The saving grace is that there is no Mormon base for Romney.

In a four-way race Ron would be lucky to get 10%, somewhere between Florida and Michigan. In a three-way race like we had in Missouri, he got 12%. In a two-way race he may manage 30%. Assuming Santorum and Gingrich supporters make up about 50% of the electorate and Romney supporters are 40%, that implies close to half of Santorum/Gingrich supporters will back Paul as a protest vote. Not too shabby. But in order to win Ron would have to get nearly all of them.

Well I didn't mean to sound like I knew the demographic details

of the state.

I just know it went to Obama by a little in '08 and has 2 democrat senators so I assume the state leans that way a little. And if it does, it would seem like an opportunity to pick up some some anti-war cross over voters in the open primary.

In my mind its still a weird situation to be 1 of 2 on the ballot and not even try to win. We'd have been better off to just sit it out with Newt and Rick than to lose by 50% plus from not trying.

For all those that thought the strategy was to be a 2 man race..

why aren't you taking advantage of VA if you really wanted to go up against romney?

I am not impressed with no ads, interviews, etc..in VA. I doubt all of VA is hostile to Paul. He could do robocalls like santorum had done in MA to get democrats or newt/santy supporters out to beat romney.

jj

Virginia GOP ain't what it used to be

The party is crawling with gummint employees as well as contractors who live off the state and have an interest in its perpetual growth. If Ron Paul gets over 35% its a major victory.

_____________________________
"Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels

I'm a gummint employee...

and I'm voting for the good doctor plus i've convinced others also with some cookies. Cookies are magic.

-vapaulsupporter

You are correct

VA is an Establishment State, no question

One day, I'm gonna' change my name to Dale Lee Paul

Here in Virginia...

...I haven't seen any Paul or Romney ads either. Looks like low voter turnout here to me so far -- whether that's good or bad for Paul, I've no clue.

I was hoping for ads here in Virginia, though, because it's an open primary state. But, then, there's also a lot of government contractors in the state.

Low turnout

The lower turnout, the better it will be for Paul.

Although, the GOP may just manufacture as many votes as Romney needs. Someone should go in for RP right before closing in every precinct to get a vote total.

A Perfect Storm

A perfect storm of obstacles, perhaps. Just this morning on Washington Journal, ex-governor Engler of Michigan was on talking about how he voted in Virginia this morning, for Romney. He is but one exemplar of the fact that Northern Virginia is simply a suburb of our imperial capital, full of beltway bandits like Engler who vote in our elections yet have nothing in common with the rest of us in the state. For perspective, when a caller asked about Ron Paul's economic plan, Engler dismissively referred to him as a "novelty candidate" while also saying that he "did not know what Ron Paul's economic plan was."

Furthermore, this week is spring break for most of the major universities, which throws a huge wrench in the gears of working for a youth turnout. It's not that hard to get a student to change their registration to vote in person, but for some reason, when absentee ballots start to get involved it becomes "too much of a hassle."

And finally, there hasn't been a particular interest in my part of the state at least in forming a meetup group to help organize. I know one individual who tried to create a branch specifically for my area, and we only have 6 members in the group including the organizers, even though invitations to help out were sent out to, I believe, hundreds of identified Paul DONORS in our area.

It may sound like I'm being negative, but I'm not; the few people I have met and worked with are very enthusiastic, and the focus remains on going to county mass meetings and working to be delegates, which I believe to be most important. So take heart! It's a long process that will go on, long after the dust settles from this national dog and pony show!

Good points

Thanks for the insight.

By the way, I also wanted to

By the way, I also wanted to mention something I mentioned in the Super Tuesday thread: While canvassing the neighborhoods around my house, I was shocked that so many people didn't even know that we were having an election, didn't know that it was open to everybody, and didn't even know that we do not register by party in Virginia.

I did as much as I could in my little corner of the world, but the lack of public political consciousness is a very major obstacle.

I worked the polls for our November election, a state and local election, and my area had among the lowest turnout in the state: 2.3 percent if I remember correctly. It is very frustrating.

Sign of things to come?

Remember, the primaries are usually wrapped up by now. McCain had locked up the nomination by the time it got to VA last time. As we get to the later states, there will probably be more and more people who aren't even paying attention to the primary, because they never had a say in it before.

Newt won't vote in Va.

Funny little article about how Newt won't vote since he's not on the ballot.

LOL - Cant even vote for himself but says you should.

http://www.nbcwashington.com/blogs/first-read-dmv/Gingrich-W...

better elsewhere

There's a lot of old-school hard-heads here that won't be swayed and they are the ones who go vote for the mostpart. Sure, money spent here would have increased support for Dr Paul, but the money was better spent in other places since resourses are not unlimited.

Iam thinking, its the black box thing

those are haunting

Everything depends on who is

Everything depends on who is counting the votes and it ain't us.

Funny how on the less intelligent Ron Paul forums there are threads that insinuate that it's better to be a part of the gop that apart from it. Funny huh?

The world is my country, all mankind are my brethren, and to do good things is my religion. Thomas Paine Godfather of the American Revolution)

I don't like this excuse.

In my opinion its on the campaign to make sure things are fair.

Fool me once in Iowa shame on you. Fool me a 2nd time in Nevada shame on me. By the time Maine came around the campaign should have had people at every caucus site to watch the votes. They should have been in the campaign headquarters where the votes were coming in making sure everything was fair.

And if/when we win Alaska and North Dakota are we to assume our people counted those votes?

I made calls:

Last night and this morning, reminding everyone I know in VA. to push as hard as they can to get everyone they know to vote for the DR. today.
While I don't live in VA. I am on the other side of the river and know I have gotten a lot of people over to our side. I hope they all put in at least the same efforts I have.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I love my country
I am appalled by my government

I'm not sure

why they didn't spend some significant resources in VA. Obviously one reason is because the campaign wanted to go all out for the potential wins in ND, and Alaska. It sure seems like it would have been a great place to make some noise though. Granted the news story would have been 'Grinch and Frothy voters try to prevent Mittens from winning' if Dr. Paul pulled off a victory, but it does seem like it was ripe for the picking.

not much....

from what i've seen. I'm in the northern virginia area and have seen very little if any advertisements on tv (the little i watch) and the local media ignores Dr. Paul. There has been some activity by the local meetup groups. I hope that was enough to gather some momentum.

-vapaulsupporter