89 votes

Ben Swann's Reality Check: The Real Republican Delegate Numbers

Direct link:

http://www.fox19.com/stor...

Thanks for the youtube link, Shawker

http://youtu.be/q-O0jgRgo4I

"Reality Check: You've been hearing a lot of "official" delegate counts over the last 24 hours, the truth behind those numbers tonight at 10"

From his Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/B...

From his Twitter:
https://twitter.com/#!/Fox19BenSwann

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'Liked' Ben on Facebook

and shared this video. Spread the word, we have only just begun!!!

Educated guess

Of the 197 unbound delegates in those states, based on percentages of votes received in those states and expected rates of delegates, I would estimate that Ron Paul may pick up 120 of those 197 delegates.

Then, he probably has around 20 bound delegates from states with primaries or proportional rules. And don't forget Missouri, where he'll probably pick up another 25 or so.

So, realistically Paul is probably sitting around 165 delegates, though I could be off by 20 in either direction.

With those numbers, we are clearly in 2nd place, and in a good position to keep Romney from getting to 1144. Romney probably has more like 350 delegates right now.

So, we are doing very well. What do we need to do now?

1) We need to encourage each other, and get the fundraising numbers back up.

2) We need to make sure that we are taking up delegate positions by the hundreds in states where they are bound in the first round. If we can get several hundred of those, we could be in position to win the nomination in an open convention. For example, Romney got 50 delegates in Florida. Fine. But if Ron Paul supporters could get half those delegate slots, that would mean 25 more votes for Paul.

Lisa Street's picture

Swann's brand of truth

I have a "reporter" crush on Ben Swann based on his unbiased investigative journalism. He is a credit to the industry, and any journalist would be doing great public service to mimick his brand of truth and integrity.

amazing

WOW...I feel so much better after watching this video...especially since Ron Paul only got around 10% in my home state of MA. Can't wait to interview ben on my radio show next week! REALITY CHECK is going to go viral!!!!!!!

Can you Imagine this?

Watch this CNN graphic of the Delegates in Tampa.

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2012/03/06/super-f...

Note, on the first round of voting, nobody wins (Yea!)

Note, on the SECOND ROUND of voting, Ron Paul Can WIN (Yea!)

Someone could modify this graphic and explain that when the "Romney delegates" or the "santorum delegates" or "Newt Delegates" are suddenly free to vote WHOM THEY WISH, they will vote Ron Paul. Why? Cause they ARE RON PAUL SUPPORTERS. Get it? They hung around and BECAME A STATE DELEGATE.

So THIS is our biggest challenge now, getting through our State convention as a delegate and getting selected to go to the NATIONAL Tampa GOP convention. That is the BATTLE you must be fighting RIGHT NOW, this SECOND, nothing else matters but getting to TAMPA.

Do you get the Ron Paul strategy now? Here is what YOU need to do --- GET IN THE BATTLE. Try your hardest to become your state delegate that is to go to the National GOP convention in Tampa. When in Tampa, vote the first round who you are pledged to vote for, then on the 2nd, vote Ron Paul. When the haggling and negotiating starts, here is your fall back position. http://www.dailypaul.com/215910/brokered-convention-ron-paul...

Treg

Yes, please BUY this wonderful libertarian BOOK! We all must know the History of Freedom! Buy it today!

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Ahhh if only the

quitters had a clue. They worry totally about winning states and yet we have so many to go. Add to that the delegates we're picking up that are not being reported....

Patriot Cell #345,168
I don't respond to emails or pm's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=qo8CmO...
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution, inevitable.

Santorum said he's "not worried" about such organizational issue

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/03/03/gop-candidates-wa...
Scroll down.

"Delegates is what it's all about," Romney said.

Santorum, though, said he's "not worried" about such organizational issues.

"It's David and Goliath. I get that," he told Fox News. "And you know what? I know who wins in the end."

In other words, the electability argument doesn't work on

Santorum supporters. They don't care that he's polling way below Obama, because many Santorum supporters believe God will intervene on election day, the same way he did for Tebow (no offense to Tebow).

If I recall...

God didn't exactly intervene when Tebow faced the Patriots in the playoffs. Look that game up....that's about what would happen if Santorum were to go up against Obama.

MOST interesting. And confusing.

Maybe there is hope left.

Like Churchill said;
"If you're going through hell - keep going."

"We have allowed our nation to be over-taxed, over-regulated, and overrun by bureaucrats. The founders would be ashamed of us for what we are putting up with."
-Ron Paul

I said sometime awhile back that there were

at least 3 plans in place.. We may not be pulling off plan A like we wanted to but plan B and C are still in play.

Focus on delegates and make sure we have people in those spots. There is no maybe..

Patriot Cell #345,168
I don't respond to emails or pm's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=qo8CmO...
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution, inevitable.

There is LOTS of hope left

Not maybe. There IS hope.

Even DURING super Tuesday as the results came in I was still working hard.

Do you believe Obama, Rick Mitt or Newt when they speak? Then WHY on earth would you listen to Fox/CNN/NBC?

NoOneButPaul2012!

"What if the American people learn the truth" - Ron Paul

Anyone?

Anyway of finding out who the unbound delegates are? I have a hunch that most of them are Paul supporters, but I'd like to make sure and sway them before the GOP/Romney tries to buy them.

Many of the delegates are not

Many of the delegates are not elected yet, they will be at state conventions. So far the Paul campaign claims to have a majority of county/district delegates that will need to go to the state convention first and elect delegates for Tampa.

What's more interesting is: how many of bound delegates will be Paul's supporters going to Tampa hoping for a "brokered" convention?

I think you meant to say

"open" convention - that's different. But anyway, a *lot* of them, hopefully.

Unfortunately, the Republican establishment being scared ****less of just
that may be why Newt is still hanging around - maybe he wants accumulate
enough delegates to throw it to Romney at the last second for the biggest
payoff he can wring out of it..

Depressing thought, but not unlikely. No wonder he's "cheerful".

END the FED . END the WARS . END the DRAMA

the youtube

They are gonna try to getyou fired now Ben!

Mourn Ben :( Hope you got a fat contract, cause they are gonna gun for you....

Anyone who claims to have ANY

Anyone who claims to have ANY idea on the "true" count is a fool.

He Didnt

He Didnt, Yet it is the Most truthful reporting on the Delegates so far!

Seriously... this dude should

Seriously... this dude should have hannity's job.

Watched Ben Swann's report

at 10:00 p.m. here just outside of Cincinnati. I tried to find it on the local website but it isn't posted yet.
First he stated that the race isn't about winning states, it is about winning delegates. He then briefly explained bound vs. unbound delegates and touched on the fact that a variety of sources all have different numbers because no one really knows the true count at this point. He then focused on hard delegates won by the four candidates on Super Tuesday for sure but stated even his own numbers are not hard numbers as proportionality awarding is still being determined in some states.(It is also unclear if I understood him correctly how many of those are bound vs. unbound, depends on the state and their rules.) He said for sure last night Romnney won 244, Gingrich 52, Santorum 17 and Paul 11 but others would be added to totals because of proportional awarding, so his numbers aren't the true totalfrom last night either.

Best part was the ending. He explained the last time a brokered convention occurred was when Reagan and Ford pounded it out at the convention. He stated Reagan's ability to challenge was because he amassed delegates during the primary season without winning the corresponding states. It was an encouraging report.

I read somewhere the other day that Reagan had not won one single state until after Super Tuesday that year. Ben Swann didn't say this part and I don't know if that is true or not but I did read it for what that's worth. Does anyone know?

1976 was not a brokered

1976 was not a brokered convention. I never got to that point. There has NEVER been a brokered convention in the primary era.

That isn't true at all. The primaries were begun in the early

1900's.

There were several brokered conventions early on during that period, the last ones being in 1948. (both tickets)

The 1924 Democrat Convention being the worst which was deadlocked through 102 ballots. A compromise draft candidate John Davis was selected on the 103rd ballot.

You are correct about 1976 though. While there was no clear winner before the convention, Ford won on the first ballot.

There has NOT been a brokered convention since the advent of TELEVISION as a regular news source. One has to wonder...

In 1988, the MSM "declared" Dukakis the front-runner after Gary Hart dropped out and Dukakis went on to win despite the Super Tuesday vote being fairly evenly split among several candidates.

1968 might have ended up brokered since Hubert Humphrey did not contest the primaries and Robert Kennedy was cleaning up in them. But alas, that history was altered.

Certainly, it isn't impossible.

But Ron isn't gunning for a brokered convention. He's gunning for an OPEN convention.

A brokered convention means deals are made, and more than likely the deal making will start flying in June if there is no clear winner.

If no deal can be reached, then we go to Tampa without a clear winner. If there is no winner on the first ballot, then the convention is at that point essentially open with hundreds of now unbound delegates (hopefully all Paul supporters) and now Paul has a real shot on the second or third ballots.

this is good

some clarification of the race.
all the focus is on beauty contests, and no talk about he real thing.

----------------------------
Dr.Ron Paul's 2002 Predictions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGDisyWkIBM

Bump!

Can't wait to see this!

When the American spirit was in its youth, the language of America was different: Liberty, sir, was the primary object. - Patrick Henry

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We need to push this to everyone!

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