True delegate count estimate - UPDATEDSubmitted by RP_or_RIP on Thu, 03/08/2012 - 14:06
Of the 278 unbound delegates in the unbound states (Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Wyoming, Washington, North Dakota, Missouri), based on percentages of votes received in those states and expected rates of delegates based on what we have seen so far, I would estimate that Ron Paul may pick up 165 of those 278 delegates.
Then, he has about 30 bound delegates from states with primaries or proportional rules.
So, realistically Paul is probably sitting very close to 200 delegates, though I could be off by +/-10%.
With those numbers, we are in 2nd place, with just slightly more delegates than Santorum, and in a good position to keep Romney from getting to 1144. Romney probably has more like 480 delegates right now, rather than the media reported total of 520+.
So, current estimate: Romney 480, Paul 195, Santorum 190, Newt 115.
So, we are doing very well. What do we need to do now?
1) We need to encourage each other at a grassroots level, pass this information on, and get the fundraising numbers back up.
2) We need to make sure that we are taking up delegate positions by the hundreds in states where they are BOUND in the first round. If we can get 500+ of those, we could be in position to win the nomination in an open convention. For example, Romney got 29 delegates in Arizona. They must vote for Romney in the first round. Fine. But if Ron Paul supporters filled half those delegate slots, that would mean 15 more votes for Paul if there was an open convention.
3) Treat my estimates as though they are a pre-game prediction. It's what we can do, and what we have the ability to do, but UNLESS WE GO OUT AND PLAY THE GAME WITH DETERMINATION, we will fall short.