33 votes

True delegate count estimate - UPDATED

Of the 278 unbound delegates in the unbound states (Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Wyoming, Washington, North Dakota, Missouri), based on percentages of votes received in those states and expected rates of delegates based on what we have seen so far, I would estimate that Ron Paul may pick up 165 of those 278 delegates.

Then, he has about 30 bound delegates from states with primaries or proportional rules.

So, realistically Paul is probably sitting very close to 200 delegates, though I could be off by +/-10%.

With those numbers, we are in 2nd place, with just slightly more delegates than Santorum, and in a good position to keep Romney from getting to 1144. Romney probably has more like 480 delegates right now, rather than the media reported total of 520+.

So, current estimate: Romney 480, Paul 195, Santorum 190, Newt 115.

So, we are doing very well. What do we need to do now?

1) We need to encourage each other at a grassroots level, pass this information on, and get the fundraising numbers back up.

2) We need to make sure that we are taking up delegate positions by the hundreds in states where they are BOUND in the first round. If we can get 500+ of those, we could be in position to win the nomination in an open convention. For example, Romney got 29 delegates in Arizona. They must vote for Romney in the first round. Fine. But if Ron Paul supporters filled half those delegate slots, that would mean 15 more votes for Paul if there was an open convention.

3) Treat my estimates as though they are a pre-game prediction. It's what we can do, and what we have the ability to do, but UNLESS WE GO OUT AND PLAY THE GAME WITH DETERMINATION, we will fall short.

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I get confused when I read

I get confused when I read something like "we won 2/3s of the 1000s of delegates at this and that county", so if that's the case, isn't it kinda official?

Updated after weekend results

...updated the above OP after last weeks results.

Interesting

This is interesting, because if there are other states like Pennsylvania which have primaries, but the delegates are unbound, that gives us more chances to pick up delegates.

The important thing, again, is to have an organization in each state that understands the rules for the state, and crafts the best strategy possible.

In many states, it may be better for Ron Paul supporters to become delegates for other candidates in hopes of an open convention.

This is

good info

I wouldn't use Florida in your example - delegates are bound

THROUGH the 3rd ballot! My understanding from looking at the rules is you can't even abstain, your vote is automatically given to Romney for Florida through three ballots then on the 4th ballot, delegates are free to vote their choice. Haven't been able to find what is required or who can vote to change the bound rules but I would guess that's a longshot.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know Peace." - Jimi Hendrix

Arizona?

I changed the example to Arizona, but not sure what the rules are there. Looks like FLA has been bought by Romney.

Updating

After a flood of news from country/district conventions last week, I went back over my delegate estimates above, and I am confident that they are looking pretty good. If anything, they may be slightly LOW!!

Given that, we are probably still in 2nd place, slightly ahead of Santorum. Please read the OP, especially the three steps we need to take.

The big question

is if this becomes an open convention,(which it looks as if it will) how many delegates that are bound for other candidates will be for Dr. Paul after they become unbound in the second round.

"Give me liberty or give me death" Patrick Henry

Yes

That's where we would need a LOT of delegates. We'll probably only be able to gain about 300-400 delegates who are explicitly for Paul. That means we probably will need 750-850 bound delegates on our side as well.

Delegates who are going to do that, should be stealth, and should have the candidate they are bound to support as their 2nd ranked candidate, so they can honestly say something good about them.

youtube keeps blocking my

youtube keeps blocking my video on Israel..featuring ron paul of course.

http://vimeo.com/38169484

Not many until State conventions

In 2008 lots of delegate hopes were high. They were crushed at the state conventions. They will be again if people dont stay motivated. As usual the system is working hard against us.

True

My comments are meant to keep motivation high and show what is possible for us to do if we stay determined and resolute.

States

The states that contributed to the 197 non-bound delegate total:

Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Wyoming, Washington

Based on the % of votes Ron Paul got in each state, and an approximate doubling of delegate % compared to straw poll vote, I came up with the rough estimate of 120.

Other states with proportional or bound delegates where Ron Paul got delegates:

Virginia, Vermont, New Hampshire, Alaska, Nevada

Paul got about 21 delegates from those five states.

Also, Swann forgot about North Dakota, which could be another 15 or so delegates out of 28 (non-bound state)

So including Missouri, which is another unbound state, where I estimated Paul getting 25 out of 53 delegates, Paul may actually have about 180 delegates so far.

Like I said, these are not actual numbers, and the GOP will fight us for every delegate, but I'd say the odds are very high that I'm within +/- 10% of the right number.

And you just arbitarily

And you just arbitarily pulled "double the straw vote" out of your ass WHY exactly? Because it suits your desires?

You are just explaining how you got your numbers. But you are not actually JUSTIFYING those numbers. For that, you would need to give some indication that doubling the straw poll is valid.

I don't think you comprehend the very simple fact that the Romney, Santorum, etc. campaigns are MUCH smarter than you even THINK you are. You and the others at hte caucuses trying to become stealth delegates are NOT putting one over on them. They are NOT selecting you to go to the convention.

and how do YOU help at all? go under your bed and cry or DO

something to get more votes and delegates or motivate fellow supporters!

These flyers are all free to print:
http://www.mediafire.com/?s4snpbpsts5b3 <- all versions that are available.
- Including flyers geared towards 50+ generation.(If you know a place or neighbourhood with retirees where they might have an impact)

http://www.dailypaul.com/218640/ron-paul-promotional-flyer-f...
please share links.

From what I saw

It's very true, indeed. Santorum won our precinct in MN handily, but yet there were probably as many Paul supporters as delegates as Santorum. Most of the supporters of Romney, Santorum, Gingrich didn't seem to want to be delegates. The campaign itself has given some examples of precincts vs. delegates as well.

Also heard from friends, who are NOT Paul supporters, of the same scenario playing out in WA. I think doubling of the delegate % compared to straw vote is actually pretty reasonable.

Do we have an official estimate of delegates so far?

After Super Tuesday? From the campaign?

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I don't believe...

that the campaign would issue an estimate. After all, nothing is official until there is a lot of hard-fought battles.

Treat my estimate as when an expert does a pre-game prediction. It's what can happen, and we have the ability to make it happen, but WE HAVE TO GO OUT AND PLAY THE GAME WITH DETERMINATION or we will LOSE.

Unless, the GOP elite

Pull some dirty tricks at the state conventions, like Nevada last year. And you know they will.

Why after all they have done

Why after all they have done so far would they not just cheat him out of his delegates as well?

They will try

They will try, but it's not as easy to do as vote fraud is.

Keep the delegates pouring in!

http://www.dailypaul.com/219438/keep-the-ron-paul-roadies-going

This team has been a huge factor in racking up those delegates, so check them out and help keep them going.

(And don't underestimate the possibility of the Nevada delegates they helped inspire getting the needed majority to unbound themselves).

This fight is far from over!

where are you getting those 'estimates'

and to which states do they apply? Anybody can make up numbers.

gedankenexperiment.dk views on finance, politics and science

See above

Numbers are estimated based on what I've heard from the campaign about their delegate strength vs. straw poll vote (with some toning down because there's probably a bit of exaggeration built in)

State by state

Could we get a state-by-state breakdown of the delegates to date, and our estimates of where Paul sits for each state?

We could update this thread and run our own estimates of where the delegate count is after every vote.

See above

I didn't do a breakdown for each state, but an estimated total based on the cumulative percentages for the states with unbound delegates.

what are the chances that

what are the chances that another candidates unbound delegate might switch for RP?

You want the HONEST

You want the HONEST answer?

Slim and none.

The other candidates are not stupid. Nor are their supporters.

Sorry, but this estimate of Ron Paul delegates is absolutely BEST case scenario.

The same best case scenario says Ron Paul goes to the convention with less than 300 EARNED delegates meaning he would have to get 850 or more delegates to vote against the will of the voters.

That is just NOT going to happen. If the numberss weree versd and he had 850 and NEEDED 300, then maybe. But there is no way he is going to get 3 times as many stealth delegates as earned ones.