11 votes

The Math to Win

Rassmussen Reports accordingly on National Partisan Trends:

2010 - Republican 32.1%
Democrats 35.1%
Independents or Other 32.8%

2011 - Republican 35.1%
Democrats 34.3%
Independents or Other 30.6%

2012 - Republican 36.0%
Democrats 32.4%
Independents or Other 31.6%

3 Year average:

Republican 34.4% (EX. Mitt 23%, Dr. Paul 11.34% if Dr. Paul runs Independent)
Democrats 33.9% (EX. Obama 22.7%, Dr. Paul 11.18%)
Independents or Other 31.7% (EX. Dr. Paul 12.68%, Mitt 9.51%, Obama 9.51%)

Ron Paul to win -

To win Dr. Paul only needs:
11.35% of the Republican National vote (which is 33% of the respective 100% Leaving Mitt w/ 67% of the Republican Vote. I think this is fair.)
11.18% of the Democratic National vote (which is 33% of the respective 100% Leaving Obama w/ 67% of the Democratic Vote. I think this is fair)
12.68% of the Independent National vote (which is 40% of the respective 100% Leaving Mitt and Obama w/ 30% each for a total of 60% between them.)

Mitt - 32.51% National vote
Obama - 32.28% National vote (I gave Obama .7% swing votes because he's the reigning champ)
Paul - 35.21% National vote

Dr. Paul is President of the United States!

Forgive me if my math is off somewhere... but I think it's within 1% error.

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Electoral College

Your popular vote numbers are interesting, but it would all come down to the electoral college votes -- made even more significant in that they would be divided up into three rather than the usual two. The big states like California, Texas, Florida, and swing states like Ohio, will be critical. Not every POTUS achieved a majority of the popular vote. So, unfortunately, you'll have to revise your calculations for ALL FIFTY STATES, and then readjust the results vis-a-vis electoral votes. Sorry kid, but you've got a lot more homework to do!

Ballot access: an issue alright, but if the Libertarian Party can get on 46 states, than surely, an energized Ron Paul Party can get on them all?

National debates: again, surely, Ron Paul could poll 15% nationally -- if Ross Perot could do it, why not RP? The MSM would have a ball playing them all off each other -- aren't they desperate for ratings? Can you see Obama, Romney, and Paul on stage -- what contrasts -- and of course the inevitable smears ("Dr. Paul, how do you respond to your critics who say you cannot be trusted as POTUS because you were not faithful to your own party? And by the way, what's it like debating next to a black POTUS in light of your racist newsletters from a zillion years ago? Well?! You have twelve seconds to respond." [microphone feeds back; commercial break ensues]).

Hopefully we can pull out a GOP win from an open [brokered] convention. It would be a lot easier.

If I were Dr. Paul...

I would respond:

"I am loyal to my party, it was the party who rejected my views, and the views of the American people; which is why I am standing here today...a result of the will of the American people."

On the racial issue... it's a little tougher question but:
#1 "Let's dodge and ask President Obama how he feels about his latest campaign "African Americans for Obama!" (http://www.barackobama.com/african-americans)

By the way... thanks for the "kid" comment. I'm probably older than most people on here :) But I take such comments as a compliment.

The numbers are simply based on partisan trends toward a popular vote. The electoral college is one of the first things needing to be eliminated by Dr. Paul when he becomes president.

Nice article, I like the idea of a brokered convention also.

Whenever there is a yoke of oppression on a generation, someone will always rise up to destroy it.

"By the way... thanks for the

"By the way... thanks for the "kid" comment. I'm probably older than most people on here :) But I take such comments as a compliment."

How do you take that as a compliment? It was a clear backhanded insult to you.

Not an insult

Just having some fun. I'm a 51 year old school teacher and homework marking has made an indellible imprint.

We are in it to win it!

..tough I think you are a bit too generous with the democratic vote.

It sure looks like a 33-33-33 .

Still its all about winning the info war. When we get people to know the good Dr. then he wins compared to the other candidates.

And that would be the biggest problem running as a 3rd candidate. He may be not in the debates and media would spin it - he has no chance...

Its up to us to inform the people! When we succeed in that then we win!

These flyers are all free to print:

why not distributing them everywhere over whole america and its neighbourhoods?


He won't even GET on the ballot in all states... he has to win the Electoral College -

From Wiki:

"Ballot access

During the 2008 United States Presidential election, the Libertarian Party gained ballot access in 46 states plus the District of Columbia;[27] it did not gain ballot access in Connecticut, Maine, Oklahoma, or West Virginia."

And then HE WON'T get into the debates - he has to be at 15% nationally.... - when they declare Mittens the nominee YOu won't hear anything AT all about Ron Paul or Gary Johnson.... Seriously they have the fix in. GOP must go down for anything to change. (that's reality). I hope it's in Florida in 2012.

"Many of us agree that you and I have no right to use coercion against people who don't owe us anything. The same prohibition applies to groups of people who constitute the government. The reason is simple: unjust acts do not become just when legalized. "

No and Yes

He will get on the ballot. 2008 Libertarian Party does not apply. Ron Paul has plenty of supporters.

I agree He would be blackballed for debates. But something tells me the 10000+ people assembled outside might be a bigger news story. So really get in the debates is up to us.

Yeup... sucks but...

All the systems the parties have set up to screw the American People out of their vote.

Time to watch Ron Paul win the popular vote, and watch the nation riot as they put someone else into the presidency because of the electoral college vote.

Time to end the electoral college.
Give receipts to voters verifying who they voted for. Have an online registry which verifies your vote according to a number on the receipt. Actually show the vote in tab-delimited .txt online. Voters can look up their state, and actually see their vote with their verification number next to it.

Votes are an investment, and like anything else, you should be given a receipt for your vote.

Whenever there is a yoke of oppression on a generation, someone will always rise up to destroy it.

DANG...thanks for the Math to WIN...can you do a smiliar

set of numbers for the delegate thing?
Vote up.


I've actually....

Started working on that... but it's hard to find the factual, solid numbers from a reliable source.

Whenever there is a yoke of oppression on a generation, someone will always rise up to destroy it.

I think not possible to get 100%accurate numbers..but..

you could do state that it is estimated..would be more accurate then the msm numbers that sraight out lie..

I will keep an eye out....very interesting