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Delegate Estimates for the National Convention

Hey Guys,
Not to familiar with all the delegate process stuff but just trying to throw something out there that might spark someone else to talk about this. What are the delegate numbers so far for each candidate? And What is the likelyhood of a Brokered Convention? To answer... I don't know. But, I've been having some fun crunching numbers and thought I would put out a plausible but non scientific theory about the probability of a brokered convention. Based on the research or information taken from thegreenpapers.com.

Ok here's the numbers as of 19 March 2012:

Need to Nominate 1,144

(available) 1,229 % so far
W Romney 449 42%
Uncommitted 265 25%
R Santorum 183 17%
N Gingrich 132 12%
R Paul 26 2%
J Huntsman 2 0%
Total 2,286

So we have an estimate of how much percent every candidate has of the delegates that are going to the convention. These are hard delegates so far. If you think that Paul's going to lose just look at how much uncommitted delegates there are and note that Ron Paul probably has about 90% of those uncommitted or so. At least that's my guess. Which would actually put him in second place with about 24% of the total delegates so far. Now if we look at the proportions given to each candidate we see Romney got 42% Paul got approx. 24% Santorum got 17% and Gingrich got 12%. Now let's just say that these portions stay the same from here on out through the rest of the available delegates of 1229. What would be aloted to each candidate?

available delegates 1,229
The rest of the available delegates would come out this way: Delegates % of the 1229 (available)
W Romney 516 42%
Uncommitted 307 25%
R Santorum 208 17%
N Gingrich 147 12%
R Paul 24 2%
J Huntsman 2 0%

So we can see that Romney would get approximately 516 extra delegates Paul would get about 300 extra, Santorum 208, Gingrich 147. What would the totals be then at the brokered convention if these predictions came true?

Need to Nominate 1,144

Picked Up Already Available Total
W Romney 449 516 965
Uncommitted 265 307 572
R Santorum 183 208 391
N Gingrich 132 147 279
R Paul 26 24 50
J Huntsman 2 0 2
Total 2,286

This analysis even though it's projections I believe are way off because we don't know what could happen here with California or Texas and that could throw Romney's number down even farther than this by 10's of %'s! This I believe will be the case. Paul would probably pick up his losses and bring his up by whatever percentages Romney loses. That would be great because Paul would now get his numbers right up. If we look at the total numbers Paul only has 50 but if he picks up those uncommitted and gets 90% of them then he has about 564 delegates under his belt. At this point though we can definitely see one thing that is clear. If these total projections are true, we are going to a brokered convention. THAT IS "IF" BIG "IF" BECAUSE I THINK ROMNEY WILL BE EVEN LESS!!! Then we definitely going to go to a brokered convention.

Well that's all I have to say about that! :)

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Take into account...

In my state, there is a provision for "vacancies" (i.e. elected delegates that don't show up at the RNC). This could end up being an actual problem because my state doesn't even elect delegates until late June...good luck getting a decent price on flights or hotels that close to the RNC.

I have heard my state already reserved rooms at $200/night for five nights to keep the state's delegates together. I am not sure about other states, though.

I'm just finding out about the expense myself, so I'm sure other people in my state are too. The cost alone could keep some from being able to go.

Imagine the expense for people from Alaska!

If someone doesn't show up, there would be a vote to choose among the alternates that did come (no matter who they stated they'd vote for), to elect someone on the spot.

Also, some bound delegates for, say Romney, may find out something about him between now and the election, and choose to abstain from voting on the first ballot. In my state, you are only bound for the first ballot, after that, you can vote for anyone.

I'd say your estimation is probably very close, and I'm with you on the "uncommitted". There's a huge shot to get some RP support there.

I'm confused about the uncommitted delegates though. In my state you must state who'd you go to vote for. I guess that means you could put "Undecided" there instead of a name?

The two most important days in your life are the day you are born...and the day you find out why. -Mark Twain