Current State of PlaySubmitted by Ian56 on Thu, 03/22/2012 - 08:33
I am going to get a lot of negative reaction to this post but here goes anyway.
The purpose of the post is to set out a realistic assesment of where we are currently and how much this position needs to move in order to get delegates in future states.
It is for entirely practical purposes, in order to get Ron Paul more delegates in Tampa.
Please read the detailed election rules for your state here. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Alloc.phtml
(You need to scroll down a bit and click on your state.)
Volunteer to be a Ron Paul delegate here. http://www.ronpauldelegates.com/
Get your Indie and Dem friends, work colleagues and acquaintances to register Republican and vote for Ron Paul.
This says how Independents and Democrats can register http://www.bluerepublican.org/
(They can switch back again straight after they vote.)
There is a Ron Paul volunteer site for activists here.
After Wisconsin there are no more caucuses (except 20 delegates for Louisiana).
All primaries from now on.
Most of the states award most of their delegates by County/District some are winner take all, some are proportional.
Some delegates are awarded proportionally according to the state wide vote.
The threshold for awarding delegates proportionally for both the above is usually 15 or 20%.
In order to win delegates by taking winner take all districts, Ron Paul is going to need to be polling high 20's or even 30%+.
(There may be the odd very rare exception, but it hasn't happened yet. See Ohio, Idaho, Illinois collsge districts.)
The few sketchy polls that exist, all (just about) show Ron Paul in 4th with 7 to 12% of the vote. Some are less than 7%.
The largest states Ca, Tx Ron Paul polls 8%, NY he polls 11%.
It is no good moaning that the polls are fixed. They may be a few pts out - they have a margin of error.
They pretty much accurately reflect how the official vote is actually reported.
If nothing changes Ron Paul will not get any more delegates in states that are yet to vote.
So how do you move Ron Paul up from the current circa 11% to 20%+ in New York by 24th April?
20% is New York's proportional threshold.
I know that there is activity going on - seen some good stuff posted on Daily Paul.
And I know that there are initiatives to get delegates for Ron Paul unexpectedly.
But all current indications are that it isn't enough.
And I know most people don't want to hear this, but at the moment :-
Ron Paul will end up with circa 150 delegates in Tampa (plus any delegates that can be persuaded to switch).
Gingrich will take 150 to 200 delegates to Tampa, but won't qualiy for the ballot. We don't know where these delegates will go.
The rest, circa 1950 delegates, will be split between Romney and Santorum.
Romney is currently 350 or so ahead of Santorum and on target to reach the 1144 delegates required to not require a brokered convention - or to win on the 1st ballot with some of Gingrich's delegates.
It needs Grassroots activism, practical actions and creativity and a lot of it, to prevent the above scenario from occurring.