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Louisiana Primary - March 24 - Open Thread

Louisiana Primary - March 24; Caucus April 28

Post your news, observations and insights in the comments below.

Full results for Louisiana here:



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Folks, go check out the CNN results page.

Then click on the Exit Poll link.

Notice - the page was last updated on March 22nd.

(this looks like a software or server generated time stamp, but I'd have to look at the page code to be sure, which may not be accessible)

Then note that the election was on March 24th.

How can an EXIT poll be uploaded to the website two days BEFORE the election?

Am I missing something? Or is this yet more evidence of fraud?

And just in case CNN is reading this, I took a screen shot.

edit: it's a time stamp (< div id="cnnEPolls" >< span class="cnn_elextmstmp" >< /span >< /div >)

Of WHAT is the question... Why would it be displayed if NOT a timestamp of the data?

There might be a way to superficially at least test to see if

there are any exit polls being done - at least in Louisiana.

I won't say it yet just in case someone is reading this and then they take action to CYA, but I'm going to investigate this lead and report back what I find.

Gingrich still...

beats us. ugghhhh.

Today in church, I prayed for

Today in church, I prayed for our country.

Please explain Ron's chances for delelgates in Louisiana caucus

He won no delegates in the primary since his vote was less than 25%. Can he win any in the caucus and, if so, what is the campaign projecting or hoping for?

In a brokered convention he

In a brokered convention he has a great chance to win. We are betting on a brokered convention. This is why we don't want anyone to drop out just yet.

Exit Poll MOE

Can results determine within .15% margin of error?

Formula = Standard Deviations * squareroot ((P*(1-P))/n)

= 1.96 * SqRoot ((0.0615*(1-0.0616))/1499)

= .01216

MOE @95% Confidence Interval = +- 1.22%

Reported margin of error = +- .15%

This assumes a perfectly random sample. That would be extremely difficult to achieve. There are ways to correct for non-perfect random samples, all of which to my knowledge would increase the margin of error, not reduce it.

Daily Paul SN Sandra claims to have witnessed a news crew film a fictitious exit poll location.http://www.dailypaul.com/222652/louisiana-primary-march-24-open-thread#comment-2341560

Error vs MOE

This thread is getting out of control.

Please don't confuse error with margin-of-error. Completely different. The margin-of-error of a sample is not the average of the actual observed errors (and certainly not if you are using absolute values).

EDIT: The 0.15% is not the reported margin of error. The reported MOE is about 4%. When looking at just Ron Paul, yes we do get the 1.22% you cited. But the incorrect number is the 0.15%. That is a bogus number, meaning nothing when compared directly with MOE.

It may well be that the votes are rigged and the exit polls are fabricated, but if we continue citing irrelevant numbers then it simply weakens the cause.

Let's check

Total population in Louisiana - 4,574,836
Assuming other candidate supporters are not passionate and all RP supporters are active, registered with GOP on time and attended the primary - 11,460.

Taking 76% as adults and 60% voting in general election

11,460 x 100% / (0.76 x 0.6 x 4,574,836) = 0.55%

We are 9.45% short of the tireless minority of 10% - that is 197,138 Louisianians short, 17 times short.

But we can compensate that by increasing the volume of our shriek about Goldman Sachs, Zionists, NWO. Oh, wait, why nobody is listening? May be there is something wrong with a shriek? May be it annoys people?

No need for assumptions, we have the real numbers:

In 2008, total population was 4,410,796.

Of that 24.7% were under 18, that leaves ≈ 3,321,239 people of voting age. (no numbers on "eligible" to vote, meaning not mentally incapacitated, or under order of imprisonment for a felony, or a non-resident)

Of that number, only 87.4% were registered to vote or 2,901,588.

Of this number of actual registered voters, 1,960,761 people cast ballots in the last Presidential election, or 67.6% of the registered voters. (or 44.4% of the total population, regardless of eligibility to vote)

You can see Louisiana registration statistics here:

http://www.sos.la.gov/tabid/758/Default.aspx

New Thread - is this the narrative here

Media plans blackout out Ron Paul (and others) to thwart his campaign (I agree completely and have seen that evidence). Starting at AP and New York Times, in 2008. Bain Capital controls rebuplican talk radio completely, thru Clear Channel. I have seen and heard specific evidence.

GOP throws away Paul votes in Nevada, Iowa, Maine, and Minnesota, I have seen Iowa situation first hand, so I am on the page. The damage here is pretty bad too. Further, the delegate process is being manipulated by GOP now to further stop Paul, that evidence is quite clear.

So we connect GOP to media through the industrial military complex, say Westinghouse and GE
Ok I see that connection. Westinghouse Broadcasting is connected to Clear Channel radio stations, and CBS. Further, FCC issues all broadcasting licenses, so politicians can control media ownership.

Furthermore, we know for a fact voting machines have been manipulated, cases in Ohio, Florida, Alabama. Further I know Alabama, wanted a system capture the voting screen as an independent record of the vote. I know this to be true. I also know the congressional hearings of 2000 that pretty well verified this as well.

So the industrial military complex, is creating false exit polls, feeding that to AP, which puts all that out to the world to see. They are clever enough to give us Sany-torum, to make it less obvious, that Rom-nation will be force feed down our throats.

Romney cabinet will be mostly ex-Bush, I have seen the AP feeds on that as well.

Is this the narrative ? If so - "we have a real problem Houston". Any links news on this would be greatly valued.

"This isn't what the govern meant"

"Win the crowd and you will win your freedom"

This has been the narrative to one degree or another for over

100 years.

THAT is the problem.

There has been little change from administration to administration at the lower bureaucratic levels for nearly that amount of time, perhaps longer. (the civil service system is directly responsible for this)

It may not have started out as a conspiracy, and it may not actually be a coordinated, planned, or designed one, but it is operating in that fashion nonetheless.

I think it is more a narrative of self-interests coming together for their common benefit. Since We the People are not included in the closed loops, we do not benefit at all, and nearly everything is done to our detriment.

Exactly...well put!

And there's really not a darn thing we can do about it.

Yes there is, but it is not legal to describe it.

.

We do our own exit poll

Ten volunteers poll next state and post those numbers. Way off then we dig deeper.

"This isn't what the govern meant"

"Win the crowd and you will win your freedom"

Deleted... was meant to be a

Deleted... was meant to be a reply to another post below.

I also want to add

that there is an advisory board in Louisiana that also provided polling info for the local WWL affiliate. The board was working as an adviser for reassigning voter districts and developing "sustainable communities". If that doesn't scare ya......
the story:
http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Santorum-ahead-in-La-in-WWL-...

the company:
http://www.gcr1.com/

I've also asked on my FB page if anyone saw exit polling.

We'll see soon.

Question

Has anyone ever participated in an exit poll by Edison Research? Or observed them performing an exit poll?

Never

Apparently Edison formed in 1994, just before Westinghouse merged with CBS. During Clinton admin, ironically H Clinton gave the speech urging Dems to vote yes on Iraq war. Start at bottom do our exit polls look like Edison, if not, we dig deeper.

DC and Maryland coming up... need some RP exit data

"This isn't what the govern meant"

"Win the crowd and you will win your freedom"

never ever ever

I've been a voter in VT, NH and MA and never, ever, ever have I ever seen an exit poll being performed or heard of someone partaking in one.

The Soundtrack of liberty ~ www.myspace.com/CrowfeatheRproject

"Death before surrender" R3VOLUTION 2012

Exit Polls

I questioned exit polls when CNN called VA for Romaney with 3% of vote tally. I was like - you mean CNN has correpondents in all these different polling loction? Yet in all my times voting I have never been asked to participate in an exit poll.

RP campaign has to get people to do exit polling somehow or go to all the voting sites and see if there is actually exit polling happening.

I do think these polling firms owe a bit of transparancy

At this point, they need to say which polling places they placed their surveyors.Maybe pressure the local TV stations to provide the info and verify it with the poll commissioner at each precinct.

Voter Fraud vs. predictability

I suspect there maybe some fraud in Ron Paul's counts, some bucket of RP votes are missing. But the results are really predictable based on income, religion and demographics. States with lower net incomes in the bible belt vote Santorum or Newt, states with higher income and more LDS vote Romney. So with that in mind, Texas goes to Santorum, California and New York go Romney. Which means Romney will not quite make it. Pennsylvania going Rom-nation might throw him over, but that is Sany-torums back yard.

If it was all out Fraud, why not simple program a fast victory for Romney and call it a day ? Is someone suggesting they are programming the appearance of a two dog race to "fool" or "entertain" us. Is the suggestion they take the exit poll multiply a consistent, and publish that as a total result ? They only benny I can see to that is it makes the media look smarter and saves cost on counting real votes ? Help me see who is the "mastermind" behind this fraud - the GOP or the liberal media, or both in a back room deal ?

Just looks to me like people vote on income and religion. Now Ron does better, when he throws lots of TV dollars in a state, that seemed to work for Romney in Florida where he needed to. The real vice here is the Media blackout which forces our campaign to spend excessive media dollars to educate, they are trying to make us run out of budget.

Clearly in states, where Ron wins, somebody is "loosing" a bucket full of Ron Paul votes, such as Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, etc. That is the GOP good ol boy club behind that. I do agree, GOP good ol boys are pushing Rom-nation, however the bible belt is challenging that. Rom-nation was the GOP Posterboy before this race even began, much of everything else was for show.

"This isn't what the govern meant"

"Win the crowd and you will win your freedom"

Where did you get your basis for demographic assumptions?

Dare I say POLLS?

Which came first, chicken or egg?

If the polling creates the demographics which leads you to believe the polling, isn't that a bit circular?

I'd say you'd be safer throwing out ALL demographic assumptions.

Simply count the vote. If you can't, then there's no way to prove even the demographics are correct. How would one prove them false?

Also, you are still stuck in the Left-Right Liberal-Conservative Dem-GOP false paradigm. Snap out of it. Then you will see more clearly what is going on.

Hmmmm.......this is a real

Hmmmm.......this is a real conspiracy, and when I think who is at the top of the food chain, my first thought is Bush Sr.

The list would contain Goldman Sachs, Bain and it's holdings, Scytl, and operatives connected to the corporate military industrial complex working for those corporations and the media.
GE, Westinghouse, etc. Due to Bain's stranglehold on radio, and Goldman's ( among others ) investments in media including major newspaper conglomerates, I think you have to take a look at Romney.

The media in particular is very strange for the most part. It's more than bias and censorship. It's as if they are almost physically impaired from saying Ron Paul. To go way out there, it's almost like mind control at work. They seem to be in an alternate reality, and report it. It's as if they are thinking loudly that they are leaving Ron Paul out of the reports even as they are reporting the others. It's palpable.

And yes, it looks like an open convention is being staged. The only person who that would be an advantage for is Ron Paul.

That probably wasn't helpful. hehe I'm sleepy. G'nite.

RON PAUL 2012 * Restore America * Bring The Troops Home
http://www.texasuncensored.blogspot.com

This is older than Bush Sr.

By many decades.

But don't forget Mr. Sir Edmund Rothschild and

of ES&S iVotronic fame and Mr. Michael Smurfit, known fraudster and election worker bribe artist, and his Sequioia rigging machines, so prolific in Louisiana. It is overseas entities (Rothschild of France and Smurfit of Ireland) who rig these votes.

Does that make your blood boil or what?