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True Updated Delegate Count - Ron Paul RISING!

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GOP Unbound app now with charts

Now see great charts illustrating the development of the delegates final forecast.

And the best of it: E-mail or tweet these charts around and convince more people that Ron Paul has a real chance and Mitt Romney is failing to generate any momentum in this race.
GOP Unbound

Watch the delegate race via our iOS app GOP Unbound

in general for discussion

in general for discussion about my GOP Unbound forecast:

I will lay out the calculation on my website akamoto.com more precisely end of week. As noted on my page, I don't count 'Hello, I'm a delegate' messages. It is simply impossible to determine the delegates by name, location and bias. My approach is a STATISTICAL one:

That the Twitter bias will reflect the overall delegates bias ! And first ballot, also stated on my website, is clearly NOT my topic. I'm talking about a BROKERED convention with NO majority on first ballot ! Whom the pledged delegates belong to, you can get that from every MSM delegate count. That's why they count RP with 60.

BUT: Ron Pauls delegate strategy builds on stealth delegates and caucus takeovers. The nature of this is: NO ONE SHALL & WILL KNOW who's secretly a Paul biased delegate... until AFTER SECOND ballot. Coz' on second ballot (for some few states later) they can come out.

Now my strategy is to expose how many delegates should be on the Paul ticket, openly AND secretly! And because for stealth reasons there will also be PLEDGED Romney or Santorum delegates who'll come out as Paulsters after first ballot brought no decision.

As with every forecast, it FIRST always is: Speculation, of course! My argument is the pure mass of data available. It is from tens of thousands of INDEPENDENT posters. They don't collaborate, they just speak. And among that overwhelming entropy there is a fascinating order, a structure. So stable and so meaningful, that I truly believe, it can point to the actual delegate bias.

Beside: As you notice, these forecasts are very well ALIVE. They change, and of course delegates moods do not change. So what the Twitter cosmos is really doing is converging to the BIG TRUE number. It is finding its path and that path will be finished on 27Aug, not earlier.

Any further examination of if a tweet is positive or negative or kidding or serious or russian or american or nightly, Sunday, short or long... - all that is not important, cos it will balance out. And even if not today, then tomorrow ! E.g. Gingrich is having some PR today on his latest campaign cut. That obviously brings him some +5% delegates today in my forecast, although I'm smoothing over 7 days. But this is a one time effect and it will be gone soon, probably already tomorrow. I could smooth it even more to get those short effects out but I don't want to have it too much static and out of touch. I'll explain the process on my website later this week.

But as with all forecasts you got to have: confidence ! And I'm assuring you should have that. My numbers will prove to be very realistic.

Hope I could point everything out clear although English's not my first language ;-)

Watch the delegate race via our iOS app GOP Unbound

Update v1.1 available

1) Teamup mode: see combined delegate forecast of 2 candidates
2) Now Facebook support
3) the weird bug with strange numbers after initial data load is out

charts next week.

Watch the delegate race via our iOS app GOP Unbound

I love

the British accent the guy threw on for Peirce.

The numbers are still wrong.

One more attempt to push Dr.Paul to the back of the line with padding the others with delegates that haven't officially been picked yet.

If we were going to pad anyone based on what has happened, we'd actually be in second place. You don't take 75% of the "delegates" who'll go onto to pick the convention delegates while the others have to scrounge over the remaining bones and wind up in a "distant" third.

Edit: Oh look.. Here's a forecast.

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/gop-unbound/id507428404?mt=8

Patriot Cell #345,168
I don't respond to emails or pm's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=qo8CmO...
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution, inevitable.

How's DC? I thought Paul has

How's DC? I thought Paul has a chance to win there

Not for sissies...

I just got back from my local GOP meeting. Time to take off the infiltration panty hose and stealth delegate lipstick.

My husband and I are older, and we definitely do not fit the stereotypical Ron Paul supporter these people are expecting, and I have to say....the old establishment is very nice to people they think are their own. At least where I live.

I just wonder how unwelcoming they'd be if they knew who we support.

This isn't for sissies. You have to go to the meetings, meet people and tell them your name so they'll remember you when it comes time to vote in delegates, etc. And frankly, it's boring. I listened to a long speech tonight and there were a million other things I would've rather been doing (like reading on here or griping with my RP friends on Facebook).

The only thing that kept me there was knowing Ron Paul has done so much work for us, and my time is a very small thing I can give back to him. Don't just talk about helping him, do it. We all have to.

The two most important days in your life are the day you are born...and the day you find out why. -Mark Twain

Only Ron Paul can defeat Obomba

See photo:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/28971201@N04/6808158596/

Peace. Out.

Feeling Fear? You're living in the future.
Feeling Depressed? You're living in the past.
Who would you be without your story? —Byron Katie

When the desire to bring about a change in you is not there,
the demand to change the world is not there eit

Android

they need an Android version or to make the iTune version compatible with older iOS's. I'm not going to d/l the ginormous new iTunes version just to get this, as bad as I want the app

Are these "unbound" only?

1) What about bound?
2) How many out of "unbound" are GOP top state officials or "superdelegates" ?

Yup, that's the goal. To get

Yup, that's the goal. To get all the unbound delegates and all the alternates for Ron Paul.

That was great

I wanna hug Ron Paul just like that one guy did.

Paul is behind Frothy by 136

Paul is behind Frothy by 136 delegates?! How is he beating Paul in his own game?

clarification

Thanks for all your comments and activity. I'm the creator of GOP Unbound.

As stated on the support page, this forecast is made just by analyzing & aggregating Twitter data. It's well above 120,000 and sometimes even up to 200,000 tweets a day, that build the forecast, so kind of a significant data source.

The simple assumption is that Twitter will reflect the convention floor 'somehow'. So this is an experiment and it doesn't pay attention to pledged/unpledged, bound/unbound or super delegates, nor to the fact of how many state delegates actually have been chosen.

It is: a projection on the overall bias right on a virtual convention floor now and then in August, a thing that would become relevant after first ballot. The RP campaign may have even more delegates and Santorum might have fewer, but thats not the topic of this forecast. If the 'Santorum' token has been dropped on Twitter this heavy then this is what it will look like in top unbound. I don't separate 'positive' or 'negative' tweets, so Santorum may have more sarcastic press than others, I just track the PR regardless of bias.

What might be interesting : Sundays Gallup poll showed 40% Romney, 26% Santorum, 14% Gingrich backing from Republican party members. This is very close to what my forecast says! With one major difference: Gallup sees 8% for RP, I see 19%. ...so probably I'm not as good as Gallup on Ron Paul...

Watch the delegate race via our iOS app GOP Unbound

Wait, what?

So GOP Unbound has nothing to do with actual delegate counts, and everything to do with twitter mentions both positive and negative? How the hell is that more accurate than what the MSM is giving us?

Yep

It's basically useless then, as far as analysis of the delegate counts. Interestingly, though, it is actually pretty accurate, with the exception of Santorum. That's probably because Santorum has no ground game.

bump--

.

it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--

Bahhh...no Android app

Funny how this is on the censorship-laden Apple Store but not on the free and open Android Market.

Encouraging news, nonetheless.

With liberty and justice for all...who can afford it.

Very Encouraging!

Freedom and Liberty will prevail! Keep fighting and standing up for the Truth!

Isaiah 2:4
And he shall judge among the nations, and shall rebuke many people: and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more.

Didn't find the app for Android.

I guess this is an iOS app only? Looks like I'll be bugging the wife to install this on her iPhone.

We need more of this kind of stuff.

I know its out there.

.

These numbers are no more accurate than MSNBC and Faux news!

Only in the sense that these numbers show a paltry more for Paul, are they closer to what may really be the true numbers come August! This portrayal of Mittens having a fixed number even that high, and Santorum being really in second place with so many, is bogus... as bogus as Faux News!

The true numbers will only be reflected as we approach the state conventions, as we see the dominance on the floor of state conventions for Paul, and the fights which will bring out the true corrupt nature of the party in it's fierce and fascist attempt to keep their hegemony over the nomination process, in their attempt to thwart the grassroots, liberty, and constitutional adherence!

Nice try, but you could just as well have said Paul leads 914 to 400, 300, and 45, for all that!

The reality is that Paul could be in the lead! How is this, you ask? The fact is that it only takes national convention delegates, in any one vote, exceeding half the convention floor, to win the nomination! Until that vote is cast on the second ballot, or third, we will not really know the numbers of true patriots becoming delegates for President Paul!

Neither will you see the real perfidy, and the evil beast come out of the hearts of this party, until Ron Paul comes closer and eventually takes the majority on the floor!

Only then will you see what some have been saying all along, that the party only coalesces around Neocons, globalists, and corporate fascists! Never around constitutionalists and lovers of limited government and liberty!

Then you will see them jump ship to split the party. Have you not heard of the alternate globalist supported third party in the waiting!? Gingrich and Palin will jump there to 'save the country' for Republicans, and try to pull the couch potatoes with them!

In 1912 it worked... to birth the Fed! And it was an untimely birth!

In 2012 it will not work. The people of all parties see through the fog now!

In 2013 the Fed will be euthanized!

Focus. Forget the numbers. Prepare for each and every convention fight!

By so doing, we are already on track for victory!

GREAT

very true. Thanks for the contribution and perspective.

This is What I have Been Suggesting

Not more than 3 days ago (and even before this) I posted that we should have our own Delegate counter similar to how the MSM has theirs. Of course a few wanted to Bash the idea and others wanted to "Keep It Secret" Being stealth in not going around and telling the opposition when or where you are going to show up for a Caucus is a good idea and I agree this is good policy. However, after we win these delegate spots what harm is there to start showing at lease our supporters the real numbers.

Once our supporters have been selected, it becomes public record and it no longer becomes a secret. All I have been saying is a lot of Paul supporters need the info in order to keep the faith going and obvious will translate in to donations.

SteveMT's picture

New American: Thomas Mullen,Wash. Times' Comm.“no one knows”

Can Ron Paul’s Delegate Strategy Confound Conventional Wisdom? | Print |
Written by Michael Tennant - Monday, 26 March 2012 12:15
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In fact, says Thomas Mullen of the Washington Times' Communities website, “no one knows” how many delegates any of the candidates has — not even the Republican Party itself. We know that the delegates from winner-take-all states such as Florida will be bound to vote for the winners of their respective states’ primaries during the first round of voting at the convention. Likewise, in some states (Nevada, for instance), during the first round delegates will be bound to certain candidates on the basis of the popular vote. Beyond that, Mullen writes, very little is certain:
More at:
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/11312-can-ron-...

hello

I am at work and they have youtubed blocked. could someone reply to this comment with the numbers? I would like to not have to wait till i get home!

Delegate count

M- 425
S- 361
P- 225
G- 165

Keep in mind...

As I mentioned in a comment below, the numbers for Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are very close to correct (at least as far as who will likely be supported in the first round of voting). Gingrich is slightly high. Mitt and Dr. Paul are very close.

The numbers for Santorum are way off. He's probably got about as many delegates as Dr. Paul does, perhaps just slightly more.

The overall number of delegates that have been allocated so far to the states/territories that have voted is 1030, not 1156 (the sum of the totals here)

I wonder...

While watching the Piers Morgan interview with Dr. Paul, I read a couple of comments that I'd like to share that may be pertinent / relevant (or perhaps not).

Here they are...

InLiberty wrote, “I believe Dr. Paul will not give out the delegate count in fear that the other campaigns will find away to have them disqualified."

Nonna wrote, “Notice how Dr. Paul talked about having more and more delegates by giving specific examples but, NEVER gave numbers? Maybe that's the way we should handle it from now on. Indications but NO actual numbers.”

I'll be honest, it's nice to see delegate numbers, but I wonder if InLiberty and Nonna are right. Just processing without knowing the right answer...