NEW HAMPSHIRE PREDICTIONS -Here are mine, what are yours?
Submitted by politicallore on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 15:45
Here are mine...
http://www.politicallore.com/election-2008/new-hampshire-rep...
What are yours???
Please digg, if you like the post!
It is all up to us now, no more complaining about the campaign... We have less than 24 hours... Let's do this...
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I thought he would get 1st
- but now it's come to my attention that the voting procedures in NH aren't secure - 80% of the results are hackable. So, I figure they'll let him have 3rd or 4th place. Let him do just well enough that the results reflect the land-line polls and we all don't make too big of a fuss, but badly enough that Ron Paul will not gain any ground.
fred thompson will get under
fred thompson will get under 6%, ron paul will get over 13%, very close for romney mccain
Ron Paul for President 2008
Ron Paul for President 2008
Results of 1st two towns in NH show Ron Paul at 14% in 4th Place
These are actual results from two towns of about 58 people:
McCain 38%
Romney 21%
Huckabee 17%
Paul 14%
Giuliani 10%
1st by a landslide!
Paul - 45-70%
Rest of the field - dead in the water
"Every generation needs a new revolution" ~Jefferson
Join ours - http://www.ronpaul2008.com
"Every generation needs a new revolution" ~Jefferson
Join ours - http://www.ronpaul2012.com
McCain 31% Romney 23% Paul
McCain 31%
Romney 23%
Paul 19%
Thompson 14%
Guilliani 7%
Hunter 6%
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
?
You forgot Huckabee. Although I'd be satisfied if he got 0%;)
Those were looking pretty reasonable...
until "Hunter 6%." I know NH likes the mavericks and underdogs, but Hunter will be lucky to see 1%.
"Cheers for liberty, my man."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qpVWPlqSAw&feature=related
"The question isn't who is going to let me, it's who is going to stop me." - Ayn Rand
http://www.myspace.com/goldenstategalt
"Cheers for liberty, my man."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qpVWPlqSAw&feature=related
"The question isn't who is going to let me, it's who is going to stop me." - Ayn Rand
http://www.myspace.com/goldenstategalt
Is this too simple?
From ronpaul2008 site:
Ames, Iowa 8/11/2007 = 9.1%
Actual Iowa Vote = 10%
New Hampshire Taxpayers 7/07/2007 = 65.3%
Strafford County, NH 8/18/2007 = 72.2%
New Hampshire Taxpayers 7/07/2007 = 65.3%
Is it too simple to believe these polls?
Or have we started to Believe the MSM?
Romney 1st - Ron Paul 2nd -
Romney 1st - Ron Paul 2nd - I think people are going to reject McCain and his 100 years of war statement - not to mention his snarky behavior in the last real debate - and he'll come in 3rd.
Newn Hampshire Prediction!!
Here we go:
Romney 33%
McCain 31%
Paul 13%
Huckabee 11%
McCain 8%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 1%
Paul improves 3% and finishes two positions higher than Iowa
Dr No gets the Big "Mo"
Paul 31%
McCain 21%
Romeny 17%
Huckabee12%
Thompsons 8%
Mickey Mouse 6%
Rudy 3%
Hunter 2%
Liberty = Responsibility
Liberty = Responsibility
Ron Paul Wins NH !!!
45% of NH voters are indep, 35% are Republicans and 20% are Dems...Split the Indep voters with McInsane, Obama, and Paul...now Rp gets the 30% of Repubs that are anti war and voila you get RP getting 25.5 %...
"It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once"...
David Hume
"It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once"...
David Hume
I do hope so
I do hope so
www.politicallore.com
I'll spend just 5 minutes predicting
Assumptions:
- NH polls are further off than Iowa, due to independent tendency of NH voters, a younger median age voter than Iowa, higher percentage of first time voters, much more tech savvy populace (cell phone and Internet factor), and very significant and outspoken libertarian base not being polled
- Independent vote goes mostly to McCain and Paul
- NH voters tend to reject evangelical religious messages, but Huckabee's momentum will help him a bit
- Very warm weather results in high turnout, diluting the impact of Paul's base significantly
- NH loves low tax messages! They have no sales tax and no personal income tax, for those not familiar with the state
1. McCain 29%
2. Romney 28%
3. Paul 18%
4. Huckabee 10%
5. Giuliani 8%
6. Thompson 4%
7. Hunter 3%
... and for the record, I spend time tonight converting several Nashua NH voters who weren't even planning to vote. The massive collection of grassroots videos and relevant clips are very, very helpful. Thanks to everyone who has spent time on these over the months.
In Dixville Notch, the libertarian won outright in 1992! Expect Paul to do very well in this first return in a few minutes.
Dixville Notch
Paul received 0 votes in Dixville Notch.
Honestly?
Anything can happen. For what its worth, I think the fact that Iowa's result, and the fact that it matched up nicely with the MSM polls was a fluke. It had a lot to do with the fact that the Iowa caucuses were dominated (as they always have been) by old people and bible thumpers. If there's one thing that the polls definitely did measure in Iowa, its the old people and the evangelicals who have land lines and always vote.
In NH, its a different story because the demographics are very different, the process is different, and the number of people in each category (democrat, republican, independent), are also totally different than Iowa. However the polls are done the same way in NH as they are in Iowa and anywhere else.
So, if we're going to see something very different happen than what was predicted in the polls, it'll probably happen in NH.
I like the contrarian position, because the crowd is usually wrong. Ron Paul in 1st or 2nd place in NH, and who cares how well the other failed candidates fare.
The Jay Leno show is going to Bump Dr. Paul way up!
I feel an upset coming. Not sure who will be upset but I don't think it will be us.
4th
I predict 4th. I predicted 4th for Iowa and he came in 5th. Using the same instinct I would predict 3rd for NH, but since I overestimated in Iowa I'm going go to go against my instinct and adjust downward and say 4th in NH.
I hope I'm wrong!
4th
I predict 4th. I predicted 4th for Iowa and he came in 5th. Using the same instinct I would predict 3rd for NH, but since I overestimated in Iowa I'm going go to go against my instinct and adjust downward and say 4th in NH.
I hope I'm wrong!
Oh you're more than wrong
You're gone. Bye bye. Flagged.
What???????
You're going to flag someone who's been here for 10 weeks for giving his honest opinion that in no way was necessarily detrimental to RP? All because he didn't set the bar high enough for your "over-the-top" optimistic view? Well, 2 can play that game. How does it feel, cause I just flagged you for being divisive. This flagging every time you disagree crap needs to stop. I think flagging the flaggers is as good a place as any to start. Consider it started.
Paul.
I'm not qualified to make a
I'm not qualified to make a prediction. I'm pretty darn sure Ron's numbers will improve on Iowa's 10% though... 3rd would be very good, as would 20%.
--
Son_Of_Liberty (formerly known as hippychimp...)
carpe libertatem
--
Son_Of_Liberty
twitter: @uptofreedom
My NH predictions
100 yr. war, McCain: 31%
The Man, Ron Paul: 24%
Rominator: 22%
Huckster: 10%
Rudeness: 8%
Galute: 4%
Hunter: 1%
Bob W., Naples, FL
Really Bob? 2nd?
Wow... now I will seem pessimistic.... but I did get within $400,000 of the last money bomb predictions.... with $5,600,000 if I recall on your thread....
Anyway, here it is....
Romney 31%
McCain 30%
Thompson 13%
Huckaberry 12%
Ron Paul 11 %
Giuliania 2%
Hunter 1%
* We in the Grassroots gets disalusioned, go off mad at eachother, blame HQ, and finally are rescued by PLAN B 2013
In the days and weeks before Plan B materializes, we pine and search for a new Ron Paul, but in the meantime we work fevorishly in which we focus our energies on getting rid of the 16th amendment, the income tax ..... why this?
Not only because we can do it, but because by doing it, we take control of our destiny.... we will save the economy, shrink the federal government forcing them out of Iraq, spelling the beginning of the end of the Military industrial Complex, all by shrinking the size of government by abolishing the income tax, the 16th amendment.....
How long will that take? Well it can happen inside of 4 years....with the coming economic depression, the comming terrorist nuclear attacks, the comming militarization of the USA through Marshal Law, its the ONE thing we can do....
Hey Bob, did you read Justin's latest blog over at antiwar dot com?
http://antiwar.com/justin/
Its worse than we thought...how is that for a prediction?
Treg/Tempe Meet up
The name most singled out in the article...
Marc Grossman. And wouldn't ya know it, A CFR member and a government official at the time.... Duh!! whod'a thunk it?? The inmates are running the asylum folks... Nice to see ya again Treg.
Paul.
I really think I will move
I really think I will move if McCain wins...
www.politicallore.com
. . . to IRAQ.
McCain is going to need some bodies.
LOL
LOL
www.politicallore.com
i think that...
we should all just chill and wait until tomorrow. nevermind predictions. i'll admit, i'm very tempted to stay up all night trying to figure out what Paul's numbers will be, but it will probably only create pre-conveived ideas that will end up throwing realism out the window.
in a good way right???
in a good way right???
www.politicallore.com