Path to Victory
Assume Paul places 4th in NH with 11%, in the middle range of predictions, beating Guiliani and Thomspon. Where does the campaign go from there? This is speculation, but since the campaign has not dropped any hints as to it's true strategy, I'd like to see what Daily Paulers think it is. Here's my take:
For context, here are the other candidates' paths to victory (Thompson's is pretty improbable). Notice they all but Guiliani rely on momentum from the early states:
Huckabee - win SC and FL with evangelicals, ride momentum into Feb 5
Thompson - win SC with mainstream conservatives and ride win into FL
McCain - win MI with independents, ride NH/MI momentum to SC and FL
Romney - win MI with home-state advantage, then win NV with Mormon support, and outspend competition in SC to get momentum into FL and Feb 5
Guiliani - ambush frontrunner in FL using moderates, win NY/CA on Feb 5
Dr. Paul can't bet on an early breakout, but here's a way they can build momentum gradually:
Jan 15: Bypass Michigan - It's a big state, McCain won here in 2000 and Romney will contest fiercely. Some will say he can win Indy's but there's little time and too many people.
Jan 19: Win or place in Nevada, a small libertarian state with low turnout, taking advantage of former leader Romney dropping out if he loses MI.
Hope veterans lift Paul to 3rd in South Carolina and keep him in the game. Expect losers Thompson and either Huckabee or McCain to drop out due to lack of funds.
Jan 29: Pick up delegates in Florida in a 3-way race with Guiliani and SC winner.
Feb 1: Win Maine with independents while others concentrate on big Feb 5th states.
Feb 5: Pick up delegates by winning congressional districts with small numbers of Republicans in CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, etc. Hope Guiliani and SC winner split the rest.
Post Feb 5: Re-evaluate chances based on delegate counts, vote shares and cash on hand. If at least two other candidates are still standing, they will be short on cash. With the primaries spaced out, Paul could pull an upset in a late state like Jerry Brown did in CT in 1992 and fight into June. If no candidate gets a majority we will be in uncharted terrority and anything could happen.
Improbable, but possible. Nevada, South Carolina and Maine will decide if he remains relevant on Feb 5th. This is where the millions should be spent and Dr. Paul should be campaigning.
Perhaps it will happen differently
Maybe they will all stay in....if all 6 have 11 to 19% why drop out?
Why?
You got a convention in September....floor fight, back room deal....why quit now? Nobody is running away with this. Huck'll get killed on the coasts, but do OK down south so he ain't going nowhere. Rudy is waiting for a rebirth in FL. He is the only one who may croak. Fred is due to be "flavor of the month" he has a delegate or two and will get a few more....he ain't wounded...why walk? Mitt will be the leader so he's staying and the nazi's have rallied around McCain (Has anyone ever researched Lieberman? This is a horrible person...dreadful) . And then, Dr. Paul who is never going to drop out.
So what happens? One day "so and so" is in front and then he gets knocked off and so and so is in second. Romney will be ahead, but, not enough to eliminate anyone....except Benito...I mean Rudy.
I think we got 5 guys at the convention..by then, Dr. Paul will have 200,000 meetup members...$100 a piece...$20,000,000...not too shabby Abby.
We are in this folks. We got our delegate, the rest is gravy. These goombahs are gonna mangle each other over the next 10 weeks and the doc is just going to keep speaking the truth over and over again...Peak in April...I'm cool with that.
Unify
Also remember that we have
Also remember that we have been in two fairly small states...now the campaigns are going to have to spend alot of $$ in multiple states at the same time......who are the ones with Big $$$. Mitt and Ron! I know Dr. Paul has already sent two sets of brochures to SC! I would concentrate on democrats in Michigan. Several other have to drop out because of cash I would assume. I bet every one of them has shot their load in Iowa and NH. Except Mitt that is.
One thing about Michigan. No
One thing about Michigan. No democratic race so what if those people turned out for Paul?
Slow and Steady Wins the Race
Yes, all of this is why I'm not worried, yet. The trajectory is still good. The media blackout is just fine the way it is since our supporters are on the Internet and in the key states and have money. We have ample time to win.
It is too soon to start boring those of us in California with continual 24/7 Ron Paul coverage, though I am walking my precinct to lay the foundation.
Ron Paul has won many tough races using proven methods and always as an outsider.
IMissLiberty
IMissLiberty
Super Tuesday ...
I think you'll start seeing a flux of campaign advertisement in the 20 Super Tuesday States. Possibly, the bigger ones like Illinois and California and then other ones that will secure quite a few delegates. But, the campaign won't do this until the last 2 weeks of the primaries, which is when the majority of voters, at least in the primaries, will finally start looking at the candidates. Remember, most other voters are easily swayable, and once you go Ron, you never go back. With momentum from the earlier states to show electability, Paul could easily ride the wave on Super Tuesday.
However, I think the grassroots needs to keep doing their work getting the word out. Go with the newspaper ads. It'll be a grand revolution because we aren't going away.