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What numbers do we get tomorrow? Here's my analysis...

Submitted by boilers20 on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 20:47

Daily Paul Liberty Forum

From what I've heard in NH, registered voters are roughly:
45% independents (undeclared)
30% GOP
25% Dems

From what I've heard, independents will pick up the Dem ballot by a factor of 2 to 1, so you get:

45% GOP + GOP ind

55% DEM + DEM ind

Correct me if my math is wrong, but 2/3 of the GOP vote will be the Registered GOP with 1/3 being independent. So, out of 100 GOP primary voters, 67 are registered GOP and 33 are independents.

Using the latest rasmussen NH GOP poll (for registered GOP) plus exit polls from IA with the independent votes (for independents), I get the following numbers:

McCain-- 29%
Romney-- 27%
Paul- 15%
Rudy- 7%
Fred- 4.7%
Huck- 13%

Now, I don't think NH independents are like IA independents, so if you give RP 45% of the indy vote, McCain 30%, and then spread out the rest, you get:

McCain- 31.3%
Romney- 24%
Paul- 20.3%
Rudy- 8%
Huck- 9%

Now, my "best case scenario": Using the Rasmussen where RP was 14% and giving him half the independents yields:

McCain--29%
Paul-- 26%
Romney-20.5%

I'll settle for that one...LOL

Read this GREAT Predictor

Submitted by jim carter on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 23:16. Permalink

http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/200...

—

"Freedom is a right that can never be won in war,only by each individual "

The glass is full...

Submitted by free4all on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 23:15. Permalink

Ron Paul - 100%

Also

Submitted by boilers20 on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 23:12. Permalink

RonPaulGraphs donor maps say 227 donors per million in Iowa versus 527 donors per million in NH. Double the donors, double the support? why not?

No matter what the numbers

Submitted by MacLess on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 21:41. Permalink

No matter what the numbers we just need to finish 3rd. We need to beat Huckabee, Thompson and Guliani.

I hope you are right but I think your figures are off on the independents.

The Independents are going about 70% Democrat and 30% Republican. McCain is picking up about half of those.

If that is the case we will do well to get 12 or 13 percent. We just need to edge out Huckabee and Guliani. If we don't beat Thompson
we are in trouble. I think that should be pretty easy though.

I hope for a better showing than third but we don't need to get our hopes up too high.

This is a long process and there is a ways to go.

I love your best case

Submitted by penguin on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 21:26. Permalink

Huckabee & McCain lost big in that fox debate from what I heard on the radio. If you add that to the fray and consider on most of the papers online in NH had stories against the FOX debate deciding for them, I'm excited. I'm not the typical voter but I can assure you it would make me want to look at those canadates a lot closer.

I'll Play

Submitted by check on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 21:16. Permalink

McCain - 31%
Romney - 26%
Paul - 14%
Huckabee - 12%
Giuliani - 9%
Thompson - 6%
Hunter - 2%

Before today I would have

Submitted by Twiztedklown316 on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 21:15. Permalink

Before today I would have said the 15-20% was accurate, however, after the smear that is about to be released from the New Republic tonight at midnight, which was featured on Tucker Carlson, I would guess those numbers might be hurt. The campaign must respond now. I cant believe they went live on tucker 2 & 1/2 hours prior to this comment and still no response.

—

Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice.

Before today I would have

Submitted by Twiztedklown316 on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 21:10. Permalink

—

Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice.

Just Curious

Submitted by pajeff2 on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 21:05. Permalink

Did you make predictions on Iowa or Wyoming and were you close to being accurate....I do like your numbers overall, especially the last ones..With all the recent events I think NH is more critical than ever..We've shown we're enthusiastic, we've shown we can raise money, what's left is to show we can get votes in critical primaries and delegates to the convention

I didn't make predictions for Iowa

Submitted by boilers20 on Mon, 01/07/2008 - 21:08. Permalink

I just basically put these numbers into Excel and played around with possibilities. If I had to guess, I'd say we come in a close 3rd at around 18%, but then again, I guessed 2.2 million on the first money bomb and 4.6 on the second...LOL