-8 votes

GOP Delegate Projections

Hey all,
I just finished preparing the GOP convention delegate projections right before Santorum ended his campaign. I will give an updated projection soon, but unfortunately Santorum leaving will make it extremely unlikely we will be able to force a second ballot.

I had an optimistic scenario of:
Romney 1,307 delegates
Santorum 436 delegates
Paul 355 delegates
(winning all of IA, ME, WA, MN, MO except super delegates)
Gingrich 178 delegates

I had a realistic scenario of:
Romney 1,402 delegates
Santorum 480 delegates
Paul 215 delegates (winning half of IA, ME, WA, MN, MO)
Gingrich 178 delegates

Romney would have only had 1,114 bound votes by the day of the convention, but those that were unbound who were Romney supporters more than likely would vote for him on the first ballot anyways. Hence we would have had to sway at least 163 to a few hundred Romney supporters to have had a chance to force a second ballot under the original projections. Now we will have to persuade many more Romney delegates and get all Santorum/Gingrich delegates with us as well.

Note: One assumption was that the primary results would continue the way they have been. Hence CA delegates would all go to Romney. An economic collapse or a Romney scandal would of course alter the race.

Here is the spreadsheet:
http://bit.ly/HubPTs

I'll update the projections post-Santorum. Please let me if you have anything to add or if you think I need to change anything. Each state is color coded to reflect the potential to get delegates before the convention or after the first round in the convention. I did this rather quickly, but I tried to be as realistic as possible.

BTW if you still haven't signed the third party petition please go to: www.rp2012.org

-Grassroots for Liberty SuperPAC

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I did a fairly comprehensive projection estimate

Here is what I ended up with:

Romney: 1237
Santorum: 480
Paul: 349
Gingrich: 178

Funny, it is fairly close to your estimate (I did my estimate before I saw your post)

What this thing really comes down to is California and Texas. So we need to perform there. I think we are taking good steps towards this. So...let's keep it up!

Ron Paul 2012!

I updated the projections post-Santorum

The projected results for CT, RI, DE, NY I had for today were decent.

I still have to update the latest caucus results, but in my optimistic scenario I have Ron Paul winning 100% of unpledged/non-superdelegates in WA, ME, IA, MN, MO.

9-11 Media Fakery: Did anyone die on 9-11?
http://www.cluesforum.info/

http://www.septemberclues.info/

9-11 Actors:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aPvJSQtmoE

Pysops.. media.. actors.. propagandists... disinfo agents.. fake videos.. fake photos

Conservatives...

Conservatives have to vote for someone, it is not over.

I wouldn't count on Romney winning California either.

Have you seen the Ron Paul crowds there; and with Frotholicious out... well you never know.

You'd think Romney would clean up CA, since he's a liberal...

But then again, he's the corporate socialist type to such an extent it probably means only the corporate liberals will show up to vote for him. Ouch, he's in a bad spot there.
http://tdarkcabal.blogspot.com

Almost feel sorry for that socialist, before I remember he represents this country's bankruptcy that is!

Yeah, but

...have you seen the election fraud going on?

I wouldn't count on Texas going for Mitt

earlier in the year polling showed him as the only Republican losing to Obama in that state.

I had Santorum winning Texas and Arkansas..

But now it is of course likely Mitt is the strong favorite.... I hope Texas really takes it to Romney though...

9-11 Media Fakery: Did anyone die on 9-11?
http://www.cluesforum.info/

http://www.septemberclues.info/

9-11 Actors:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aPvJSQtmoE

Pysops.. media.. actors.. propagandists... disinfo agents.. fake videos.. fake photos

And even if it does...

Delegates can abstain from the first floor vote!!!

A Romney Scandal

I read a post in here recently about a potential lawsuit that could involve Bain or Romney - can't find the post to know the exact subject of the suit.

I think it is very unlikely

I think it is very unlikely that Romney will reach the convention without scandal.

And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.

Mabe we should get our guys

Mabe we should get our guys on slates dedicated to Romney and certainly just get as many delegate spots as possible; a sort of undercover mission. Since the ruling is that delegates can abstain from voting, having a large chunk of his supposed delegates suddenly not vote for him would not only be hilarious, but down right damaging to him. I know that we already have supporters who are bound to him, but we should be putting them everywhere we can.

To climb the mountain, you must believe you can.

California

Awards by Congressional District - Paul should win at least a
few there...

Yeah. There is potential in about 5 districts...

...with low GOP registration. I reserved the optimistic/realistic scenarios in the caucus states because those are places he's got a much better chance. Ron Paul hasn't won a single district in the primaries yet so that will be much harder. I'm just trying to play the oddsmaker and be as realistic and neutral as possible. If any political guy outside the Ron Paul movement says we have a good shot in some districts I'll add a few in the Ron Paul column. Unfortunately most states really just follow lead and although there are some demographic differences between states most results end up being skewed towards the favorite. You can call it herd mentality or liking to pick the winner, but that kind of psychology is hard to change.

I'm in CA btw and will be working to help win a couple districts.

9-11 Media Fakery: Did anyone die on 9-11?
http://www.cluesforum.info/

http://www.septemberclues.info/

9-11 Actors:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aPvJSQtmoE

Pysops.. media.. actors.. propagandists... disinfo agents.. fake videos.. fake photos

Good luck with CA, and thanks for the work on delegate counts

Actually, Ron Paul *has* won at least one CD - in Virginia..

That was the VA 3rd District, which happens to be the only
majority-black district in Virginia.

BTW - I did a kind of back of the napkin analysis related
to California CDs in another thread here:

http://www.dailypaul.com/224164/california-cd-doable-dozen-p...