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Mitt Romney Has A Little Delegate Problem... CBS News Finally Figures It Out

(CBS News) -- Mitt Romney may be the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, but it will be a while before he actually has the delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

Romney currently has 645 delegates, according to CBS News estimates. He now needs 499 more to reach 1,144 - the number of delegates a candidate must have to be nominated.

Full state-by-state delegate estimates from CBS News
Complete GOP primary results

Even though Romney's chief rival, Rick Santorum, has suspended his campaign, states continue to hold primaries. There are five contests on April 24th with 219 delegates at stake; but even if Romney won every single delegate that day he would be far short of 1,144. Wyoming and Missouri are holding conventions before April 24th where Romney may pick up some delegates but even winning all of them wouldn't bring him much closer to the magic number.

Continue at: CBS News

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Burger Bet

I have a 1 to 35 bet with my boss that Ron Paul will get the Republican nomination. If he does, he'll buy me 35 burgers. If Romney gets it, I buy him 1.

I'm not sure what chance we actually stand, but people think we're finished. We of course need to get enough delegates so that Romney doesn't get it on the first round of voting. Then I think it all comes down to momentum. Ron Paul excites people like Obama did four years ago. Mitt Romney is the "yeah, whatever" guy, and he hasn't even faced Obama's real attacks yet. I don't think he will withstand that.

I am hopeful...

"For this is the will of God, that by doing good you should put to silence the ignorance of foolish people. Live as people who are free, not using your freedom as a cover-up for evil, but living as servants of God."
(1 Peter 2:15-16)

Not just Delegates

But we need votes in upcoming states. People on here are right. In state's that Paul visits, it needs to be organized to register people then and there to vote and join the party. Some time of his meetings should be devoted to this. That would help the cuase much.

And as for me, I feel bad for not having done enough in WA state. I did a little bit and contributed some, then figured I had done my part. Not so, because it was not enough. If I had it to do over again, I'd of done much more prior to the vote here. There are neighbors I have talked with afterwards whom I've convinced of Paul.

If I had brought just those few neighbors and some close friends, then our caucus would have been all paul delegates...only would have taken about 4 people to change it. Instead, our precinct sent 4 romney and 1 Paul (me) to the county. At the county, our distict lost. I think something like 50 delegates to state, we got none. Going into the county caucus, overall we had close to as many delegates as romney there to vote. It was that unity slate where the santorum people voted romney's slate.

But still, if I and a few more in the area had just done a little more before the initial caucus at the high school, we could have turned that around. Just in my pricint, putting 5 paul and zero romney, which could have been done by bringing just four more people, would have changed the vote at county by 8 (4 less for romney, 4 more for Paul). If a few more did the same, then we'd of been likely to prevail at the county and be going into the state much stronger.

Am just saying, please for the sake of all that is good, do anything and everything you can think of to get more people to come vote.

Romney Democrat has a huge problem, that doesn't go away...

He's supported the Democratic Party ever since entering the scene
http://www.thewhitehatsreport.com

And he has a really, really major problem.
Unelectable.

Ron Paul beating Obama by 2 or more!
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/221163-rasmussen-o...

Since Santorum dropped out, I

Since Santorum dropped out, I wanted to make a handout that focuses on the only 2 viable candidates for the Republican nomination. Paul vs Romney

View it here: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0oRX5D16N4XcnFNUGtCem1ZNE0/...

or download the high res PDF and TIFF versions here: http://www.mediafire.com/?ur39a9e81t9n9

Actually Romney has a bigger problem - electibility

Obama is a friggin disaster and Romney STILL can't beat him in a poll. With no coverage Ron beats Obama. That's Mitt's real problem and I hope we spend a TON of money pointing this out to those fine folks in TX and CA.

We should also point out

We should also point out that, after the nomination, Mitt's numbers are expected to drop once the Obama attack machine got going on him. Ron's, on the other hand, are expected to rise considerably, as he benefits from the exposure while his record makes him nearly invulnerable to such attacks.

Ron spent thirty YEARS becoming a "Teflon Candidate". B-)

= = = =
"Obama’s Economists: ‘Stimulus’ Has Cost $278,000 per Job."

That means: For each job "created or saved" about five were destroyed.

Exactly!!!

so many republicans focus their eyes on "electibility" instead of the actual "message" so we should let them know that Paul beats Obama in any "real" polls.

make ron paul the president in 2012 or i will leave america entirely.

What role will Nassim Taleb play in he upcoming months?

Is he our guy who can miraculously help us win some districts in California?

SequoiaTrees4RonPaul

How About 455 Delegates?

Didn't Wead reveal the number to more in the vacinity of 455?

Believe me, Ron Paul is still in this, but we must get the word out to the Santorum and Gingrich supporters to join our ranks..

But there's count IS

But there's count IS inflated. He'll likely going to take far less of the delegates from the caucus states then the AP is saying.

SD Ron Paul liberty Operation up an running.
http://www.southdakotaforliberty.com/

Donate here https://rally.org/southdakotaforliberty/donate
Volunteer for Phone from Home here http://www.southdakotaforliberty.com/node/4

I find it hilarious (and despicable) that throughout...

this ENTIRE story dealing with how many delegates Romney needs and how he can get them in the next 2-3 months, never once is Ron Paul even mentioned (nor Gingrich for that matter). CBS, why am I not surprised?

This article is not the

This article is not the anti-Romney piece that you seem to think it is. This is talking SOLELY about clinching it...not counting any unbound delegates...and not counting any June delegates. Aside from California, which he obviously wins quite a bit, there is New Jersey and Utah's 90 winner take all delegates that he is a shoe in for.

The article pretty much goes on to imply that he has it sewn up...just not clinched by the end of May.

The notion that Romney is going to get zero unbound delegates is a little insane.

Maybe you should go read up

Maybe you should go read up on what happened yesterday in CD7 here in Colorado. We didn't think we would get any delegates and took the majority and it looks like Romney the socialist big government jerkoff may only come away with 1.... We will see what happens with CD1, my district toay and the state convention tomorrow. Romney is not as safe as he thinks.

Ron Paul won't win by playing small ball

While Ron Paul is peeling away a delegate or two in Colorado, Mitt Romney is going to be winning between 150 and 200 on April 24th. Ron Paul needs to start winning some states, and doing it fast. There are so many bound delegates set to be assigned in upcoming races, and Romney is likely to get an incredibly high percentage of them.

Why do you say Obviously Wins Quite A Bit

What is obvious is Paul campaigning in California for only three days draws a combined total of over 20000 supporters to hear him speak. Do you think he is just wasting his time and that this means nothing? I tend to believe Dr. Paul when he says we are gaining exponentially.

hthomas

Ron has been gaining

Ron has been gaining exponentially for years. The sneaky thing about exponentials is that they are always doing the same thing, but to human perception they seem to suddenly go from creeping to exploding.

= = = =
"Obama’s Economists: ‘Stimulus’ Has Cost $278,000 per Job."

That means: For each job "created or saved" about five were destroyed.

Maybe CBS "finally" figured

Maybe CBS "finally" figured it out, but the GOP knew it all along, this is actually, exactly why Santorum dropped out....he would have split Romney's vote too heavily and would therefore risk Ron Paul's emergence at a brokered convention.

It looks like we will have a clear majority...

...of delegates at the Maine State Convention ion May 5th and 6th.

There used to be a saying: "As Maine goes, so goes the nation."

Boy would I love to see us re-establish that truism!

For the Republic and Its Creator,

Steve Martin
Host, The Aroostook Watchmen Radio Show
780 AM in Monticello, 1700 AM in Lewiston, 88.1 FM in Westbrook, 88.1 FM in Orono, 96.5 FM in Brewer, 96.5 FM in Bangor, Maine.
mepatriot@juno.com
207-532-3635
AroostookWatchmen.com

"Truth is an absolute defense to the charge of paranoia."

Please link to your source...

... so we can all let out a cheer. This is big news!

A Constitutional, Christian conservative who voted for Ron and stands with Rand

No, Let's Not

An accurate delegate count is a campaign asset, and should not be given away to the competition.

At this point, the media couldn't calculate an estimate without our data if they wanted to, because they weren't taking notes in class. Best to wait until the pop-quiz and blow them away.

Become a delegate for anyone, become an alternate and show up. Delegates for Santorum will be dropping out, in some cases, delegates for Romney are not committed; when they don't show up, we can fill those slots.

What do you think? http://consequeries.com/

This media delegate count

This media delegate count probably counts a majority of Maine as Romney's, and he probably has much less there! And if a few states, at their national conventions, unbound their delegates, things could get really juicy!

Not really

The CBS count in Maine has Romney with 10, Paul with 8 and Santorum with 4. Even if Dr. Paul sweeps them all at the state convention, Romney's total only drops by 10. With Santorum out, Romney is projected at 1400 pre-convention first ballot votes. 10 won't mean anything, unfortunately.

Remember that delegates count

Remember that delegates count twice when we get them from Mitt. Once because we got them and our count goes up. Once because he lost them and his count goes down. B-)

It's the same reason that you "waste" your extra votes by casting them, rather than holding them, if you have a "vote for N" election and you have only M (less than N) people you're sure of. Every vote you cast for an unknown is (N-M)/N th of a vote AGAINST your M known OK people, because they might push one of the unknowns over the threshold and squeeze out one of your own.

The math of elections is AMAZINGLY screwy.

= = = =
"Obama’s Economists: ‘Stimulus’ Has Cost $278,000 per Job."

That means: For each job "created or saved" about five were destroyed.

No..in terms of keeping

No..in terms of keeping Romney from 1144, they only count once.

1144 is only an estimate

1144 assumes 100% of the delegate slots are filled. If they don't all show up, that number goes down. Alternates for Ron Paul MUST show up!

What do you think? http://consequeries.com/

Since a brokered convention

Since a brokered convention looks more and more like a near certainty, will there be a chance to pledge money to those delegate who must travel to the national convention who might need donations to ease their financial burdens?

Maine

I travel ~200 miles per day in Maine as a salesman all I see is Ron Paul signs. If yard signs are any indication of how the convention will go it looks promising. One road I travel often had McCain signs all along it in 2008 and now it's Ron Paul. The conversions are mounting every day!

santorum delegates

The Santorum drop out could bode very well for us with respect to delegates. I have a friend in VA who was a Santorum guy but voted for Paul in the primary since Santorum didn't get on the ballot. He's a cookie cutter neo-con who is scathing towards Ron Paul in general, but when faced with a choice of Ron Paul or Romney, went for Paul. This is a very interesting turn of events and if my friend's sentiments towards Romney are indicative of many of Santorum's supporters, we could see a real shift in how this whole campaign has gone in the coming weeks and perhaps reach a point where the MSM can no longer ignore Dr. Paul and his supporters. In writing the last sentence I realize there'll be some scandal or some 'non-news news,' trumped up for the MSM to report if we start picking up wins! Oh well, it's the delegates that count!

Make no mistake about

Make no mistake about it..Santorum dropping out is in NO WAY good for anyone but Romney.

I don't get it..all I have read on all pro-Paul sites the last several weeks is the that only goal at this point is keeping Romney from 1144. Taking every last delegate away from him as possible.

Well...if Santorum officially drops out rather than just suspend, there are now over 200 delegates free to vote for whomever. Even if Romney gets just TEN of those former Santorum delegates (which he would..at least here in the Real World) then that is 20+ that he doesn't need to win.