-10 votes

Easy money to be made on Intrade (if you think Ron Paul can win)

In the spirit of gratitude for some of you engaging me on a delegate discussion over the past couple days, here's a quick tip on a way to make a bunch of money.

Over at intrade.com, you can place bets on a variety of different future events, including many political events. I'm sure many of you know about the website. If you are smarter than the collective set of bettors, you can make some money.

Ron Paul's "win the Republican nomination" contract is at a 0.6% chance right now. From discussions with you guys, it appears that many believe his chances are higher than that.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=669534

If you look at the current prices at which you can buy shares, and factor in the monthly membership charge, you can acquire 380 shares of Ron Paul stock for $61. If he doesn't become the nominee, you're out that money. If he does, you win $3,800.

Do you guys take that bet? Does anyone want to pull the trigger? That would make for a cool story to tell, and you could donate all the winnings to his general election campaign (or put it toward the cost of your flight to Tampa and hotel stay as you vote there as a Paul delegate).

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The Shazzzster

How the hell would that pay for a plane ticket purchased before the expiration date of the bet?

BTW, yes, people are aware of intrade, its a great place to pick up on insider activity if you know how to use the right indicators and can spot the patterns, evening doji-stars, etc on the candlestick charts. With regards to you question specifically, who knows, maybe I an waiting for the price to drop. Hows that?

As an aside, I see you're still here, ya gotta admit it's a lively forum right?

I didn't down-vote this, seeing as how you posed your question in a thoughtful manner, and aren't overtly trolling (yes, starting a thread at a forum you've been @ for 10min and expecting people who are here everday to provide you with entertainment is considered trolling), which btw just ain't cool.

I answered the plane ticket question below

Use credit.

It's a pretty decent forum. It kind of takes a while to load pages sometimes, and that can be a little annoying, but it's not my place to start demanding changes. What's an easy way to see who has recently responded to your posts? Is it only through the "My Account" page?

Yeah, under My Account

And then at the bottom it has recent replies to any of your posts/comments.
wrt/ credit cards, you hadn't posted it yet when I started writing my reply, then I got held up on a business call, and so on and so forth...Its possible, though I personally don't use them, we do live in a society that indoctrinates people to the idea of debt being a normal thing, but I digress...
Anyhow, good to see you back–

If I had a little extra cash

If I had a little extra cash to spend, why not. Unfortunatly I do not at this point in time.
Not that I gamble alot, but the odd bet is entertaining.

To climb the mountain, you must believe you can.

Bookies (like intrade)

Bookies (which intrade basically is) LOVE "teams" with rabid, but not rational fans. Because they make a FORTUNE on these people.

For example...if you are betting on college basketball, you might find that in Chapel Hill, the local bookies have North Carolina favored by 8 points. Whereas, other national bookies might have the favored by only 5 1/2. Why? Because they know that the rabid Tar Hell fans in their home town will think "I KNOW they can do better than everyone says!" so they will take the unfair bet. It is the one time that bookies are willing to have "action" on a game rather than try to get a 50-50 split on the amount bet on each side. if North Carolina wins by 7,, the bettors lose in Chapel Hill, whereas a bettor in Indiana would win the bet.

The other way it happens is BECAUSE so many local people bet on North Carolina at a 5.5 point favorite, the line moved much faster than it did nationally. So the 8 point line IS the cut off where there is a 50-50 split on either side

Same thing with Ron Paul. The odds are skewed in his favor. Yes...even 0.6% is skewed in his favor. It is a sucker bet and intrade knows it.

Also...how could you take your "winnings" and put it toward a flight to Tampa when he obviously wouldn't have won before then?

pay for the Tampa flight on credit

and pay the credit card bill with the massive winnings.

I actually agree 100% with what you said. My opinion is that Ron Paul has a 0.001% chance of becoming the nominee (if not 0%). But based on conversations here, many think he really has a good shot at it. I don't know that anyone has thrown down a percentage, but my impression is that most think it's above 0.6% (and well above). I'd be interested to see if anyone would buy up those shares.

your a loser..

i wish i could have you as a neighbor

De criminalize Liberty!