28 votes

Why Paul will Still Win Missouri with Map (UPDATED) with new stuff

Missouri will still go to Paul at the State Convention, here is why.

MAP

Probability Map of No Shows

http://i934.photobucket.com/albums/ad189/lawsonjoe2008/Sprin...

http://www.google.com/search?q=missouri+congressional+distri... (old)

http://www.mdn.org/2011/DATA/MAPS.HTM. (new)

If you breakdown the map of the congressional districts, you will see Paul got delegates from two of them, the 5th and the 1st. Basically the City of St. Louis and the City of Kansas City. We lost by 5 votes in District 3 (St. Louis suburbs) and by about 50 votes in District 7 (Springfield/Joplin/Branson area) These areas are about half the votes in the state, if you add all the votes that happened in these areas together, we win by a couple of county delegates. The rest of the state on a county level dominates by Santorum 40% of the county delegates, Paul 30%, Romney 20% and Gingrich 10%.

In 2008, the State Convention was held in Branson (a vacation mecca) many people from far away parts of the state
made the State Convention their vacation while in Branson, I know I was there. But even making Branson as the location many delegates who showed for their district spots, did NOT show for the State Convention in Districts 6,9,2 and 8. These locations are 5,6 and even 7 hours away in extreme NW Missouri, NE Missouri and SE Missouri.

This year, the State Convention is in Springfield (District 7), still 5 and 6 hours away from those same districts in 6,9 (note 9 is now gone after redistricting) 3 and 8, some on the Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois borders. But Springfield is not a vacation destination and so people will not be able to afford the travel just to vote in the State Convention. Actually in early 2008, the economy was much better than today. So I see far fewer making it to the convention for those reasons alone.

The other consideration is that Santorum folks may not want to make the drive, add in the expense to vote for something that will give them just Romney votes, or even Santorum votes for that matter since he is out.
These counties are spread out, sometimes only having a few votes per county, very hard to coordinate bus caravans etc. with such huge spread out areas. However, District 1, 5, 2 and even a large contingent of Paul supporters from 3 can easily get a bus caravan going because they are extremely small and compact areas, if we do a chip in, we can make this happen. In the 7th, Greene county, biggest county where Springfield is located (where the state convention is being held) was won by Paul, we don't have to travel from the rest of the district, which parts are as far as 2 hours away on the extreme SW counties along the Arkansas, Oklahoma border. We will all be there! If only 5 delegates fail from each other county in the 7th congressional district and we all show, the counties in the 7th will go Paul. In 2008, more than 5 from each county vs the district totals failed to attend.

We have lots more numbers in 2012 than in 2008 statewide, if we put together bus caravans, hotels and chip in for our delegates statewide to get to Springfield, we will win.

In 2008, Not nearly the amount of people for McCain showed up at the state as did the districts, it will be even worse this time for Romney. We just need to get our people there. Of course the maps have changed but the counties haven't, they are still as far away or close as they always were.



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From cd7

I was a delegate yesterday from greene county for cd7 and even with a pact in place with some santorum folks, we lost. We MUST encourage santorum folks to join ranks with us and we cannot let them go to romney! We may very well win Missouri, but not without the help of some santorum folks, and especially not with a santorum/romney/gingrich alliance. This is what we need to be on our toes about.

P.S. I will gladly open up my home in Springfield, as will many others, if cost of rooms is an issue. Fresh bagels and Coffee is what I can offer : )

BillyTaltyIII

From cd7

I was a delegate yesterday from greene county for cd7 and even with a pact in place with some santorum folks, we lost. We MUST encourage santorum folks to join ranks with us and we cannot let them go to romney! We may very well win Missouri, but not without the help of some santorum folks, and especially not with a santorum/romney/gingrich alliance. This is what we need to be on our toes about.

P.S. I will gladly open up my home in Springfield, as will many others, if cost of rooms is an issue. Fresh bagels and Coffee is what I can offer : )

BillyTaltyIII

Bump

Bumpty, Bump

Great article! But

Great article! But Shhhhhhhhh........... We don't want Romney sending limos to all these far flung places!

Bump for the alternates

!
+ get some comparison sheets to the convention(or infront) to cheer the anti romney supporters up for voting for ron paul!

http://www.dailypaul.com/225865/new-paul-vs-romney-candidate...

Bump and a big THANK YOU...

... to Missouri delegates!

A Constitutional, Christian conservative who voted for Ron and stands with Rand

JustLiberty4US's picture

Wow Missouri this is Useful Data

So, based upon this information, it seems clear that participants only need to SHOW UP in many areas. Yes, I agree with the last comment, the logistics need to be planned now. Call some of your relatives (siblings, Mom and Dad, Grandpa) around the state and ask them to make a change for our country and become a delegate; AND then drive them there. This is an unbelievable opportunity. Think of it: delegate positions without a fight; what a gift.

We will get it done

the chance to havea brokered national convention is huge this year, keep pushing everyone, this is a year where if you outlast, you win.

Logistics

This is all good, but everyone needs to start working on LOGISTICS now! Someone needs to be in charge of logistics for each county to make sure everyone has a way to get to the Convention. If you have a big county, break it down even further. Many of us are idea people and are not good with the nuts and bolts of getting things done. Figure out if you have to spend the night and make arrangements. If you plan to drive on Saturday, figure out when you need to set the alarm. Regardless of when you make the drive, make sure everyone has a ride. Figure out where to meet and how many cars are needed. Rent a van if it makes sense. I'm not aware of many good public transportation options, but there is Greyhound bus service to Springfield. You guys in Springfield need to help us out with some low-cost lodging. Find a place willing to reserve a block of rooms at a good rate or open up your homes. Let's think about lodging options in outlying areas like Bolivar, Nixa, Willard, Republic, Branson, etc. Don't forget about food. Springfield is famous for Cashew Chicken ;)

 
Freedom, Prosperity and Peace

We will help

I plan to contact our Greene County group tomorrow, and then hopefully we can connect via conference call with the bigger areas and out state and get this done. I think we should do a big chipin for those who can't afford to make the journey, buying blocks of rooms and chartered bus service.

I added a new map

based on 2008 convention info and other reasons, check out the link in the main content

It is all about showing up!!

That is what we learned in Missouri CD5. Almost all of our delegates and about half our alternates showed (not good enough).

One good thing, the combined Paul/Romney slate at the Jackson County Caucus (I know....we had to do it to get anything)sent more Romney delegates than Paul. Yesterday dozens of Romney people didn't show up! The delegates on the slate to the State Convention are 2/3 for Paul and all alternates!

"In the beginning of a change the patriot is a scarce man, and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot."--Mark Twain

Perhaps you need an updated map

It's always best to use accurate data.

Try using these maps of the newly redistricted Congressional Districts of Missouri:

http://www.mdn.org/2011/DATA/MAPS.HTM

The maps on the search page that you are linking to are the old ones from the past decade, so they should not be used anymore.

How many Congressional Districts are in Missouri in 2012?

Are there 9, like there were in 2008, or has there been a Census and a change in the Congressional Districts in the four years since?

There are now 8, since, after reapportionment following Census 2010, Missouri lost a Congressional District. And their boundaries were also redistricted to encompass slightly different county combinations.

Luckily for you, the general geographic areas are basically intact, so the gist of what you're getting at is still true. And, with only 8 districts, we hopefully have a better chance at capturing the majority of Missouri's National delegate spots.

This doesn't cause a big change in what you're saying here, but you may want to double check your thinking about travel time and state convention delegates against the updated district boundaries.

I added both

No there is one less district, but for comparing 2008 to 2012 you need both maps, because our numbers on who showed in 2008 come from the old map, but the counties stay the same. That's why I said last night I would use a statewide county map to predict no shows rather than these district maps.

I realize I was too late to help you

with the Congressional District conventions.

What CD convention did you go to?

What county are you in?

7th

7th

Good job

Excellent synopsis Joe. I went to CD3, and I know as I was driving home with the people that I carpooled with, we were already discussing how we were getting to State.
In CD 3 - it was a even split, RP vs everyone else, so it will be really important we get every supporter there.
Keep posting here, and on the Facebook; Missouri for Ron Paul page, and we'll get everyone there!

thank you

check out the new probability map

Tim... Great Job... I just want to let you know that you guys

need to make it to the State Convention and please call all supporters to make it to the great State Convention you will ever had... One vote can make a difference and thats what happen in our first Congressional District in Minnesota... The RP delegate won by one vote and we would have won the other 2 spots but lost by just a few votes. I am pretty confident we will all show up to our State Convention next month.

Please tell your folks in MO to all show up and Car Pool and whatever you guys need to get every supporter to your State Convention.

Thanks for fighting for Liberty!

additional instruction please

Thanks for breakdown Joe, awesome. Convention virgin here. Are the delegates that go to State the same that were at CD's?

not always

but usually yes, unless a particular delegate said they couldn't make to a district vs the state, but that all is done before the slates for district and state are chosen.

CD vs State delegate

Eli

For the most part yes. In theory they could be entirely different groups of people, but most times when a CD slate won at the local caucus, it was submitted and won for the State portion of the local caucus. In my county, the delegates are identical.

Bump

Bump

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Great thread. keep this

Great thread. keep this bumped!!

tomorrow

tomorrow I will add a probability map by county of no shows to the convention.