Why Paul will Still Win Missouri with Map (UPDATED) with new stuffSubmitted by joeinmo on Sun, 04/22/2012 - 04:33
Missouri will still go to Paul at the State Convention, here is why.
Probability Map of No Shows
If you breakdown the map of the congressional districts, you will see Paul got delegates from two of them, the 5th and the 1st. Basically the City of St. Louis and the City of Kansas City. We lost by 5 votes in District 3 (St. Louis suburbs) and by about 50 votes in District 7 (Springfield/Joplin/Branson area) These areas are about half the votes in the state, if you add all the votes that happened in these areas together, we win by a couple of county delegates. The rest of the state on a county level dominates by Santorum 40% of the county delegates, Paul 30%, Romney 20% and Gingrich 10%.
In 2008, the State Convention was held in Branson (a vacation mecca) many people from far away parts of the state
made the State Convention their vacation while in Branson, I know I was there. But even making Branson as the location many delegates who showed for their district spots, did NOT show for the State Convention in Districts 6,9,2 and 8. These locations are 5,6 and even 7 hours away in extreme NW Missouri, NE Missouri and SE Missouri.
This year, the State Convention is in Springfield (District 7), still 5 and 6 hours away from those same districts in 6,9 (note 9 is now gone after redistricting) 3 and 8, some on the Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois borders. But Springfield is not a vacation destination and so people will not be able to afford the travel just to vote in the State Convention. Actually in early 2008, the economy was much better than today. So I see far fewer making it to the convention for those reasons alone.
The other consideration is that Santorum folks may not want to make the drive, add in the expense to vote for something that will give them just Romney votes, or even Santorum votes for that matter since he is out.
These counties are spread out, sometimes only having a few votes per county, very hard to coordinate bus caravans etc. with such huge spread out areas. However, District 1, 5, 2 and even a large contingent of Paul supporters from 3 can easily get a bus caravan going because they are extremely small and compact areas, if we do a chip in, we can make this happen. In the 7th, Greene county, biggest county where Springfield is located (where the state convention is being held) was won by Paul, we don't have to travel from the rest of the district, which parts are as far as 2 hours away on the extreme SW counties along the Arkansas, Oklahoma border. We will all be there! If only 5 delegates fail from each other county in the 7th congressional district and we all show, the counties in the 7th will go Paul. In 2008, more than 5 from each county vs the district totals failed to attend.
We have lots more numbers in 2012 than in 2008 statewide, if we put together bus caravans, hotels and chip in for our delegates statewide to get to Springfield, we will win.
In 2008, Not nearly the amount of people for McCain showed up at the state as did the districts, it will be even worse this time for Romney. We just need to get our people there. Of course the maps have changed but the counties haven't, they are still as far away or close as they always were.