-78 votes

Why I've lost faith in the delegate strategy

I will probably get many negative votes for this but it is the truth.

The Ron Paul campaign strategy from the very beginning has been to focus only on the non-binding caucus states and sweep most of the delegates from those states. But if this has been the strategy all along, the only conclusion I can come to is that Ron Paul was never really in this to win in the first place. Here's why. Out of the 2,286 delegates attending the convention, only about 457 delegates are unbound. Out of these 457 unbound delegates, 120 of them are RNC superdelegates. The great majority of the RNC delegates are garanteed to go to Romney, although a few may go to Ron. So that leaves only 337 unbound delegates for RP to pick up, which is not nearly enough to win the nomination. This makes me think that he either never planned on winning or he was just hoping that there would be more than one front-runner and they could just force a brokered convention.

But here's the thing: So far Ron Paul's delegate strategy has been a failure. Out of the 337 unbound delegates, each candidate has recieved this many:

Romney: 87
Paul: 43
Santorum: 24
Gingrich: 1

This includes the delegates from Guam, N. Mariana Islands, Virgin Islands, N. Dakota Wyoming, Missouri, Colorado, and Minnesota.

As I stated in my previous entry, the only way Ron Paul can win is by winning the majority of the remaining primaries. I think the delegate strategy was a bad idea to begin with. Don't get me wrong, its a good strategy, but the caucus states should not have been the ONLY focus. The campaign needs to focus on winning some of these major states.

EDIT:

Many people interpreted this as me saying that I have lost faith in the movement has a whole and I think that we should just give up. I was not saying that at all. All I was doing was acknowledging a fact. I wasn't saying that it is just completely hopeless for Dr. Paul, I'm just saying that we need to pursue a different strategy of winning this nomination. In fact, what I said should give you all an even better reason to keep fighting for Dr. Paul because the fact is he needs to win some states. The only alternative is to flood the convention and hope that they give us the nomination.

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There are many reasons Paul

There are many reasons Paul hasn't received the votes we were looking for in many states and none of them are a failure of his delegate strategy. The strategy seems to be working out better than expected truth be told.

The reason we haven't won any popularity contests is simply because of the lack of coverage / negative coverage by major networks. Most people who actually turn out to vote don't study politics like we do. They listen to the main stream pundits.

Given a fair shake his strategy would work very well because of how involved his supporters are.

- Grow Mushrooms at Home
http://subfarms.com

if Ron Paul would have won

if Ron Paul would have won Iowa and Maine, he did well in Nevada, and New Hampshire, I think he would of done much better in Primaries. That is why the G.O.P. could not allow him to win early voting states. msm has convinced the masses that even though people like R.P. he is unelectable so don't vote for him.

They clearly stole these actual victories from him to ensure

that he would not get popular traction. This is quite evident in the REAL outcomes of both Iowa and Maine specifically. This is stolen election material nothing more nothing less.

Yes the masses only vote for the winner.

That is why those early Iowa/ N.H. vote counts must be contested when they happen. After that it is all over. Media control of the public takes over.

I voted you up

It does seem that at some point, and maybe from the beginning, the campaign decided to do something I call the actuarial coup strategy:
1.) Get enough delegates to be an influence within the party.
2.) Romney loses the general election if he doesn't get Ron Paul's approval.
3.)The 2016 GOP candidate makes the same mistake and suffers the same fate.
4.) Libertarian faction expands as demographics start catching up.
5.) It's 2020 and a close primary; GOP takes a chance and has Rand Paul running for VP. Cultural conservatives and war mongers bolt the party. Another loss.
6.) 2024: Most of the cultural conservatives are dead and the Democrats are giving out all the MIC contracts. Neocons are now Democrats. Green Party steals progressives. Rand Paul elected president.

I don't have the patience for this strategy and none of us has the time for it. We are the frog on the slow boil. How close are we to a permanent war economy and police state?

Welcome aboard; let's get the train out of the station.

We just received our Oregon voters pamphlet.

It is titled:
You Have The Right To Vote:
Some excerpts:
1. You have the right to a secret vote. You do not have to tell "anyone" how you voted.
2. You have the right to vote even if you are homeless.
3. **You have the right to vote for the person you want. You can "Write in" someone else's name if you don't like the choices on your ballot.
( This means, if you receive a mail in ballot, you can write in anybody regardless of party affiliation.}
4. You have the right to know if your ballot was counted.
5. You have the right to file a complaint if you feel your voting rights have been denied. { And 12 others }

These are State Laws !

**Now, it seems to me that No One can make a delegate vote for anyone other than his/her choice, therefore the Republican Party is breaking the law mandating a delegate MUST vote for anyone other than their own "Personal" choice in Oregon !

P.S. Oregon delegates are being tricked into signing pledges !

beesting

And what about the 2nd round of voting?

How many delegates are Free to Vote their conscious in the 2nd round, (if there is a 2nd round)?

A simple number will suffice.

Treg

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Reality vs Hope

Was it a doomed strategy, sure, obviously, but it is the only strategy afforded to us. There is no other way we can even hope to fight such a corrupt beast. Unfortunately, even this will not be available much longer as the enemy now can see their vulnerability. States soon go to all computerized primary voting. RP has been fighting this battle for a lifetime do not expect victory in a day. Just do what is right and leave the results to God.

Good point.

Good point.

Brad

I've been saying since South Carolina...

perception = reality. Ron Paul surrounded himself with a campaign staff convinced he could not win the "beauty contests". They may have been right, given the media fix on reporting vote results. Nonetheless, one cannot afford to think of oneself as a loser. The two straightest arrows in the campaign's quiver was the expert testimonials to the soundness of Ron Paul's foreign policy, including nuclear Iran and Romney's "crony capitalist" contributors. They should have used those arrows BEFORE South Carolina instead of breaking Ron Paul's momentum. The delegate strategy failed in 2008; however, the results this year appear much more promising. A lot of us were banking the coverage of Ron Paul's events in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia would turn things around. That may still happen, even given the problems with the live feed in both places. It ain't over yet.

What is your source for those numbers?

Particularly, the ones that show already secured delegates?

Specifically, I want to see them listed by state with the totals for each candidate.

If you don't have such data, how can you back up your claim?

I find it odd you make this assertion of a "failed" strategy when all I see is post after post of how we are winning majorities in the process on the way to state conventions. (where actual delegates are chosen)

If all you can provide are "estimates" ala the Lame Stream Media then you can print out this OP, roll it up and smoke it.

Otherwise, please cite your sources.

Those are the numbers each

Those are the numbers each candidate has for the UNBOUND delegates only.
Here's how I got those numbers from each states.

Guam
Romney - 9

N. Mariana Islands
Romney - 9

Virgin Islands
Romney - 4
Paul - 1

Wyoming
Romney - 23
Santorum - 2
Paul - 1

N. Dakota
Romney - 17
Paul - 2
Santorum - 6

Colorado
Paul - 13
Romney - 13
Santorum - 7

Minnesota CD's
Paul - 20
Santorum - 2

Missouri
Romney - 12
Paul - 4
Santorum - 7
Gingrich - 1

TOTAL
Romney - 87
Paul - 41
Santorum - 24
Gingrich - 1

These are the results for the states that have had their conventions so far. MO and Minn. still haven't had their state conventions and others like Washington and Iowa haven't had any conventions yet. But so far Paul's strategy hasn't gotten him the majority of delegates. I'm not saying any of this to belittle Ron Paul or the campaign, I'm just acknowledging a fact.

Brad

You can now add Louisiana and Massachusetts.

It looks like Paul won 4-1/2 of the 6 Congressional District caucuses in Louisiana yesterday. He has at least a 61% majority of the state convention in June which picks the 20 soft pledged delegates, and the 18 district delegates. Depending on who gets picked by the LA SCC, he might have as much as a 78% majority - an ultra majority.

Thus it is now safe to say, Paul will at a minimum have 12 more, perhaps 15 more delegates via LA's congressional districts, and most likely an additional 20 at-large delegates since he controls the State Convention. (Santorum and Romney are to have 15 of those soft pledged to them, but those delegates are technically unbound and will now certainly be actual Ron Paul supporters)

So that bumps Paul to 73-76 total, Romney to 90-93. (no word yet on the RNC super delegates, or the additional 5 unallocated delegates from LA)

Then look at Massachusetts. It looks like it's turning into a sweep there as well. There's a good chance by the end of the week, Paul will be leading in the actual delegate count.

Actually, Louisiana has not

Actually, Louisiana has not assigned any national delegates yet. The recent conventions were County caucuses, not Congressional District caucuses. The Paul delegates elected at the County caucuses will got on to the CD and State conventions to elect the national delegates. Ron Paul has a good chance of controlling the delegation in Louisiana but I'm not gonna update the count until all is said and done.

As for Massachusetts, it was a winner take all, so all of the Ron Paul supporters who were elected as delegates will be bound to vote for Romney, at least on the first ballot (unless of course they choose to abstain). Their are many paul supporters who are bound delegates for other candidates. This will be important in the case of a brokered convention.

Brad

You must not know much about Louisiana then. For starters, we

don't have counties.

Second, these WERE district caucuses.

These elected delegates are to the State Convention.

At worst, Ron Paul's delegation now has a 61.67% majority there. There is an outside possibility for a 78.33% majority, and an equal chance for anything in between. (the LA State Central Committee will appoint an additional five delegates per congressional district for a grand total of 180 State Convention Delegates. We don't know how many of those might end up as Ron Paul supporters. There are some such supporters already on the SCC, but I don't think it is anywhere near a majority)

Right now, Paul has 111 State Convention delegates in Louisiana, with 30 more to be selected, some of which might be friendly to him.

Thus, Paul's people control the selection of the actual delegates at large. (there are 20 of those) The March "preference primary" allegedly soft-pledges these delegates proportionally. Fifteen to Santorum and five to Romney. But it's a soft pledge with no requirement to vote for that candidate at the RNC, and those delegates are officially unbound, and NOW they will be selected by Ron Paul supporters.

Thus in all likelihood, unless something goes horribly wrong, ALL TWENTY will be Ron Paul supporters.

Additionally, since the Convention controls the soft-pledge rule, they could all be pledged, or even hard bound, to Ron Paul. It's up to the convention which Paul delegates now control.

Then there are the District delegates. One need not be elected to the State Convention to be a National delegate, but the State Convention controls who gets to go to the RNC.

At the State Convention, the district delegations will break up in to district meetings and select 3 people to be RNC delegates. Since Ron Paul's delegates to State control 4 districts at least by 83.33%, maybe even 100% in some cases, you can bank all 12 of those district delegates will be Ron Paul people.

The only question mark is CD 4 which has (I'm not sure) either 12 or 13 Ron Paul delegates out of 25. If the result of the 5 appointed delegates leaves Ron Paul's camp with a majority in CD 4, you can write those 3 delegates in as well. If not, then he may get either 2, 1, or maybe none from CD 4.

Then there is CD 3. We lost that one. So officially we have no delegates representing it. And presumably, the 3 delegates from CD 3 will not be Ron Paul people. But that may change depending on who those State Delegates turn out to be, and who the 5 appointed delegates are.

This is why I say that at the least, Paul has 12, more likely, 32 more delegates all from Louisiana, and a potential for 6 more for a total of 38.

I think the 3 super delegates are not expected to be RP supporters, and there will be 5 more appointed by the State Central Committee, and it is also unknown who they will be or who they will support.

At minimum - Paul has +12, but likely at least +32 from Louisiana.

As I said before, no National

As I said before, no National delegates have been selected yet. I know these were CD conventions, I already said that I was wrong on that. Its very possible that something can go extremely wrong. Just look at North Dakota and Missouri. Ron Paul was in a very good position to pick up the great majority of the delegates their but then the Romney hacks came in and railroaded the process.

Brad

So every number you have up there in the OP is only actually

chosen delegates?

There are ZERO presumptions up there?

If so, so be it.

Fair enough.

I don't know how this adds or does not detract from your claim to not having faith in the delegate process.

It's a slow process.

So far, it IS working.

Not all of these numbers are

Not all of these numbers are chosen delegates. Some states haven't held their conventions yet, but they had a proportional or winner-take-all primary so it is already decided who will get the delegates. The only States I haven't included for not having their conventions is the States where the delegates are unbound because we have no way of knowing who will get the delegates until then.

It depends on what you mean by working. If you mean that it is working because it is getting Ron Paul a lot of delegates then you're right, it is working. But only focusing on getting delegates in the non-binding caucus States is not going to get us enough delegates to win on the first round because there are only about 337 unbound delegates. I'm not saying it's not a good strategy, I'm just saying that the campaign also should have been trying to win some delegates in proportional States as well. The only way that the delegate strategy can work now is if we can force a brokered convention and the only way he can do this is by a.) Winning a lot of the remaining primaries and stop Romney from getting to 1144. b.) All the delegates make a motion on the convention floor to unbind all the delegates. Or c.) Get most of the delegates to abstain. Although, I'm still not certain if the last two strategies will work.

Brad

BMWJIM's picture

Actually this was CD caucus's. Ron got 111 delegates out of 150

to the State convention. I agree that it aint over til the fat lady sings. Just so happens the voice will hopefully be sweet in June when the State convention happens.

Jim

1976-1982 USMC, Having my hands in the soil keeps me from soiling my hands on useless politicians.

I just looked it up on

I just looked it up on greenpapers, you're right that they were CD caucuses, but apparently Louisiana doesn't assign national delegates from the CD conventions. I just assumed they were County caucuses because usually National delegates are assigned by CD's.

Brad

They ARE assigned by the CD's but this occurs at the State

Convention.

Since Paul controls 4 districts with at least 25/30 per district, he will have at minimum 12 RNC delegates from those districts.

Up in the air is CD 4 where it was nearly evenly split. CD 3 is not likely, but not impossible.

Imagine a convention

where half of the delegates are screaming president Paul, president Paul, no matter who they are bound to vote for, we will still have a say in how things go, my thoughts are: they will use this as leverage to push RP in as vice, unless we have almost a riot at the convention, somehow getting our guy in the drivers seat, with evangelic support. Could get interesting!

RP2012

Jeffro

Thats what I'm hoping for.

Thats what I'm hoping for. Right now it seems like thats the only way unless he can win some states.

Brad

Getting delegates is all rival's goals, not just some brilliant

thing the Paul campagaign came up with. But other rivals chose to not only go after delegates, but also media attention and being where the elections were hot instead of going off to some other part of the country that was not on the election radar.

jj

Agree, Cacus strategy was doomed from the beginning as

expected. You can only win by staying in media's eye where all the other candidates are competing. And, then this attention would give you more votes in primary states and MOMENTUM is key to get you to other states and nat'l poll numbers higher.

However, Paul's staff took Paul away from the media's eye to caucus states where the media was not covering as it was busy covering the forthcoming primaries and supertuesday.

And you can't win by just having presence in cacus states and ignoring primary states as Florida.

The numbers already prove the delegate strategy was a failure just as their 08 strategy failed.

jj

Kudos for having the guts to

Kudos for having the guts to post this. And you may have a point. However, I can't imagine one would throw their hat into the ring and leave themselves open to harsh criticism from the media, Americans and their own party, and be on the road constantly campaigning at 76 years old with family in tow, if you weren't serious about running. I think he hoped he could win some states. I still think he won Maine, and we know he won VI popular vote. But who would have thought the media blackout would be so thorough. I've really begun to hate the manipulative msm in this country. So much so that I don't watch msnbc, fox, cnn or any of that crap. Online and Russia Today is where I get my news.

In the meantime, this is about more than one election. Look at Iowa. They went from corruption during their election, to new Republican leadership. Look at the crowds that Dr. Paul continues to attract. What Republican gets invited to Berkeley?? His message is long overdue. It's funny to me that big government/socialism is passe, and those who still espouse it seem like dinosaurs to me.

I am so upset that I can't be a delegate for Ron Paul in Tampa

because we're moving to a new state here shortly. But you know what? I'm gonna try to get to Tampa for the convention anyway. +/- combat boots and a rifle, I'm ready to march.

LETS DO THIS!!

The goal was to win

The goal was to win everything, and get all the delegates as insurance. Since we're up against forces that won't let us win it the easy way, we'll have to rely on getting delegates and hoping for the best.

What's so hard to understand?

BMWJIM's picture

O' Ye of little faith and little time here. Please stop BORING

me with the lack of faith in the PATRIOT Community. We are in it to win it and NOTHING, NOTHING the Republican Party can do to stop it.

LoL!!! This is what makes the good DOC the player that he is. He KNOWS WITHOUT A DOUBT,"WE WILL CARRY THE WATER!" He knows Romney will NEVER win without us. He knows we will NEVER give in to STATUS QUO.

He knows we will NEVER let a sorry ass post such as yours stop us. I personally thank you for energizing the REAL PATRIOTS in this movement. Not the SORRY ASS WANNABES like you. Suck it up or give up! Don't have guts enough to win, BY ALL MEANS GO THE "F" AWAY!

We intend to win. Your post is such a distraction, I think it will die on the DP vine! LoL! Just go promoite Romney and help his supporters as you think you are doing for Ron Paul. You are a much better Romney supporter than a RP supporter. Just look at your attitude.

Semper Fi my little Romney supporting buddy,

Jim

1976-1982 USMC, Having my hands in the soil keeps me from soiling my hands on useless politicians.

You have gall

You have a lot of gall labeling a thoughtful post backed up by fact as being a distraction, when it's your post that says nothing of substance whatsoever and is a blatant distraction.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

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