April polls averages: Paul leads Romney by 2.1 points in GE match ups w/Obama & Politics in RCPSubmitted by Key Largo 1948 on Sun, 04/22/2012 - 13:23
April polls averages: Ron Paul leads Romney by 2.1 points in the General Election match ups with Obama & the Politics of Real Clear.
I have been following Real Clear Politics RCP pollster results since January rather closely. Until two weeks ago they followed all four GOP candidates. Santorum is now out and there are no more polls. But RCP has made it much more difficult to access results on Paul or Gingrich. Only Romney's name figures for General Election match ups on the left side of the screen. If you hit the Romney button you get into dead end. Nobody but Romney. You can see the polls on Paul or Gingrich only by clicking Latest Polls (keep it secret). If you hit Romney there you are in a dead end again.
I was very upset that RCP decided to pre-nominate Romney by so formatting their page, just when Santorum left a good percentage of the conservative GOP voters behind and advised them to “vote their conscience”, means he did not tell them at all to vote Romney. RCP, besides nicely presenting the results of several pollsters, also shows their own averages for each candidate. And here there is another bias hidden.
On 4/21 RCP average for Romney was +3.2 (for Obama) and the average for Ron Paul was +7.4 (for Obama). Paul's 7.4 seems to have stayed that way for about 3 months, while Romney's was slowly getting lower and and better. This looked good for Romney and not to good for Paul. Romney has gotten much more attention from pollsters so there are many more polls shown for him on the RCP page. I classify this polls as GOP-1 polls. A GOP-3 poll would allow comparison and that is bot more informative and better for Ron Paul. So pollsters stick to GOP-1 and Romney is flooded with attention. For better or for worse. To find all recent polls you need to look at the lower table on the screen. The first table is shorter and for Paul certainly biased.
RCP gives these enclosing dates for the polls they count into their average.
4/4 – 4/20.....for Romney's 3.2
3/10 – 4/19...for Ron Paul's 7.4
Are they trying to be “nice” and include more polls for Ron Paul average? Just kidding. March is March and April is April. In March Santorum was there in the full swing. So I did my own average for the two contenders, in which I included all polls that were done in April or ay least partly in April for each of them. This gives us 5 polls for Paul and 12 for Romney. But the time span is the same. Which make sense in the realm of quickly moving political scene. What I got is this:
3/31-4/19....Ron Paul....+1.6 for Obama
3/30-4/20....Romney.....+3.7 for Obama.
My averages, which are fair for both candidates, show that in April Paul leads Romney by 2.1 points in the General Election match ups with Obama. With +1.6 Paul is within typical error range with the President. Such error range would be 2.5 – 3.5. And Romney is not.
Here is what I counted (spread numbers are given from the latest down with +/- for Obama)
Ron Paul vs. Obama:
(+2)+(+1)+(3)+(-1)+(+3) = (+8):5 = +1.6
Romney vs. Obama:
(+2)+(-1)+(+6)+(0)+(+4)+(+9)+(+3)+(+4)+(+4)+(-2)+(+7)+(+8) = (+44):12 = 3.7
I welcome all corrections and questions.