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Clearing up a misconception

I made a post earlier titled "Why I've lost faith in the delegate strategy" where I explained that Ron Paul will not win this nomination on the first ballot or force a brokered convention unless he wins most of the upcoming states. Many people interpreted this as me saying that I have lost faith in the movement has a whole and I think that we should just give up. I was not saying that at all. All I was doing was acknowledging a fact. I wasn't saying that it is just completely hopeless for Dr. Paul, I'm just saying that we need to pursue a different strategy of winning this nomination. In fact, what I said should give you all an even better reason to keep fighting for Dr. Paul because the fact is he needs to win some states. The only alternative is to flood the convention and hope that they give us the nomination.

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I think the only

I think the only misconception is that this 2012 GOP race is becoming a little more dynamic with the exit of Rick Santorum .

As explained all over the web , Santorum’s 281 total delegates (according to the AP count), 84 were won in five states that award their delegates in nonbinding contests. That means that the delegates from those five states ; Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Washington state and North Dakota had already been free to vote for any candidate at the convention and remain free to do so.

The remaining 197 of Santorum’s delegates are bound to the former Pennsylvania senator , meaning that unless Santorum explicitly states that he is releasing them, those delegates are required to vote for Santorum at the Tampa convention. Until Santorum does decide to release them (and he may well decide not to), those 197 delegates remain in Santorum’s column.

Santorum’s decision to suspend his campaign rather than end it outright is also an important distinction .If Santorum had ended his campaign, then his bound delegates would have become unbound.

Not only are there more delegates out there to be had , the fact that Ron Paul supporters in every state thus far are lining up and getting delegate positions to go to Tampa in August is Dr Paul's greatest ally . Romney , Santorum and Gingrich can go ahead and win these ' beauty contests ' in the caucuses and primaries held thus far , but it's the Delegates , the Actual Person representing their state in Tampa in August that really count and believe me , Ron Paul has the majority of them .

Many people may not have

taken your other post seriously because you were listing 13% of the delegates, and based off that 13% you stated you have "lost faith." I cannot speak for anyone else, but I defiantly want Paul to win more delegates especially since the only primaries are proportional popular vote to delegates. Did I lose faith in the delegate strategy? Nope, it was going great until Santorum dropped out, and I am sure Paul's camp has taken that into consideration and sure to change things up a little bit. I also believe that in a short time Newt will be dropping out, and real conservatives will have no choice besides Paul or Mitt, and if they were voting for Newt....well more than likely they will be voting for Paul.

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” – Dresden James

That was another thing people

That was another thing people were confused on. They thought the delegates I was listing was the total number of delegates for each candidate. They were actually the number of unbound delegates each candidate has from the district and state conventions that have happened so far. Once the rest of the conventions take place, Ron Paul may end up having the majority of them. But that alone is not gonna get us to a brokered convention and that was my point.


Right on,

but Paul has many more delegates than just 43. To focus on them is short sighted. In any case, say Mitt does get 1144 "bound" delegates come RNC Convention time, they do not have to vote for him. Even if they signed that silly pledge. They can Abstain which is like voting present/novote, and come second ballot voting, they can then switch to who ever they want to. However, I feel that Mitt will not get the needed delegates to win on the first balance. Call me crazy, but people are really waking up to his multiple personality, and are realizing that him and Obama could double for one another.

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” – Dresden James

I think Ron will have

I think Ron will have somewhere around 250 total delegates once all the caucus states have their state conventions. I've heard a lot about delegates abstaining. If they are allowed to do this, I hope thats how it turns out. But if Romney wins all the rest of the primaries he will end up with more than 1500 delegates, which means 400 (and the alternates) will have to abstain. This is why I think Ron Paul really needs to win the majority of the remaining primaries. He will probably do very well on the April 24 primaries. Think about it. He was already getting good second place finishes in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine (actually first place in Maine but we all know what happened there). Add the support he already has in that area to all the former Santorum voters who will switch to Ron Paul and I think we have a pretty good shot. He will need about 800 delegates total to have a brokered convention (that includes the 250 mentioned) so subract 250 from 800. This means in the remaining primaries, Ron will need to get 550 of the remaining delegates. If that doesn't work, then we'll cause chaos at the convention.


No need to explain.

Personally, I am as happy when one of my posts gets a lot of negative comments as positive. What is disappointing is getting NO comments, which happens more often than not.

Joη's picture

why not clarify it on that post, then?


those who see that one aren't necessarily going to see this one.

"You underestimate the character of man." | "So be off now, and set about it." | Up for a game?

I didn't repost on that one

I didn't repost on that one because I figured most people would stop looking at it. But I guess it won't hurt to post it there too.


I Replied To Your Earlier Post That It Was A Good One..

I agree that RP should continue to fight and maximize delegates to Tampa. As many RP supporters as possible, delegate or no, should try to convene there. RP supporters must show up for delegate conventions - we can not slack off now.