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Intrade Texas (Primary May 29 2012)

As of 4/25/12:
The predictions are inconsistent for the May 29 Texas primary.
Mitt is heavily favored for 1st, there is a virtual tie for 2nd place between Paul (slightly ahead at 54%) and Santorum (50%). But, despite that, Paul is being given a 90% chance to get 3rd, while Santorum gets 0% for 3rd. In the mean time Newt is given a 35% chance for 3rd.

To win: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91496
Mitt Romney 96.5%
Ron Paul 4.4%
Newt 0.4%
Rick: 0.1%

Second: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91497
Ron Paul: 54%
Santorum: 50%
Newt: 5%
Mitt: -

Third: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91498
Paul: 90%
Newt: 35%
Santorum: 0%
Mitt: 0%

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Trading volumes are quite low

For 2nd and 3rd place. No one is buying or selling, so the numbers aren't all that meaningful. I think the 1st place bid is the only one that you can make anything of.

Who cares? Intrade is NOT a

Who cares? Intrade is NOT a "prediction." It is BETTING. And betting has nothing to do with predicting. IT is ALL about how much money came in on either side of the line.