#RonPaul upset in the works!Submitted by hectorinmiami on Wed, 04/25/2012 - 22:58
After Last Tuesday’s Election Night How is Ron Paul's Campaign Doing?
Rumors of the demise of the Ron Paul campaign have been vastly overestimated.
The Ron Paul Paul r3OVLution continues!
While Mitt Romney did sweep the East Coast primaries last night, there is an interesting subplot happening within the Republican presidential nominating process that few, particularly those in the media, are aware of. Ron Paul’s “delegate strategy” seems to be working with clear delegate wins declared in at least 5 states with more expected (to mention a few North Dakota, Maine, Oklahoma). With the departure of Santorum and Gingrich (expected Tuesday), the organizational strength and fundraising prowess of the Paul campaign is the last serious challenge that Romney has going into the August nominating convention in Tampa.
This turn of events might not be a surprise to you if you've been a Ron Paul supporter from the beginning. So don't be surprised to see even last night's series of election outcomes overturned by the grassroots winning the remaining open delegate slots at their local district conventions... Could there be a real upset in the making?
It has always been clear that Ron Paul has the best campaign and national grassroots support aside from Romney and was truly the only other serious campaign effort. This observation from last year has now become our current reality. Ron Paul could very well be nominated at the Republican National Convention in Tampa in late Summer.
Ron Paul has won the majority of delegates in at least 5 states. According to RNC rules, a candidate needs the majority support of at least 5 state delegations to the national convention in order to make it on the ballot in the nomination process at the national convention. This means Ron Paul will definitely be on the GOP ballot in Tampa this August
[Fox News reports Ron Paul will be on the convention ballot] http://youtu.be/UJrU97VBI8g
We are the future of the party. This is our party to make of it what we want. While Ron Paul is our banner and ideological leader, We made his candidacy happen. Together we can save our country from its many troubles and enjoy a life of peace and prosperity for ourselves and our families. The support Romney has is from members of the party that are generally over the age of 40 and those who see him matching up best against Obama. Yet despite all the media and institutional support for him (i.e. presumptive nominee), Romney cannot break 70% support for his candidacy in any recent contest. Think about it this way: Nearly 1 in 3 Republicans dislike Romney so much that they still will not vote for him. Does anyone really think Romney can win if 1 in 3 Republicans refuse to vote for him come November? I don’t think so…
Ron Paul’s delegate strategy is working! 3 of the 5 states Romney supposedly won, DE, CT & NY were completely winner-take-all. Of the remaining 2 states, RI and PA, Ron Paul won 4 and at least 5 delegates, respectively. Jake Towne has a great breakdown on the PA effort where he reminds us that all of the PA delegates are unbound no matter (meaning: not controlled by Romney). Tuesday's Delegate Breakdown: Connecticut (25 by winner-take-all), Delaware (17 by winner-take-all), New York (34 by winner-take-all, 58 by district conventions, 3 unbound super-delegates), Pennsylvania (none bound, no winner-take-all, 15 by state committee selection, 3 super-delegates, 54 by district conventions), Rhode Island (strictly proportional, Paul won 4 delegates). The 127 delegate slots up for grabs in PA were voted on too (as unaffiliated individuals) and the Paul campaign was able to pick up a half-dozen or more delegates (the real final number of RP delegates out of PA has not been published). It’s still possible to see complete upset in PA ruining Romney's perfect sweep from Tuesday if the Santorum/Gingrich delegates could be persuaded to cast an anti-Romney vote at the convention. But the strategy of picking up delegates continues. Add the other 15 states that have yet to vote (816 delegates left, 360 of which are won at the district level which are mainly in the RP strongholds of TX and CA). There is a lot more yet to happen!!!
[Jake Towne article on RP successes in PA primary] http://www.nolanchart.com/article9583-ron-paul-wins-5-delega...
Only 4 of the remaining 15 states are winner-take-all. Indiana, California, New Jersey-open? and Utah-open? have a total of 308 winner-take-all delegates. [?-Apparently, voters here can change their voter registration to vote Republican on the same day, like in IA or NH. Can someone confirm this?]
Take Heart! Romney needs to reach 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. Even if Ron Paul's campaign doesn't achieve stronger electoral success in the remaining primaries, it will probably remain statistically uncertain if Romney had reached the magic number come August. The future of our country rests on that close of a margin. And Ron Paul's delegate strategy hinges on Romney not getting to 1,144. The exaggerated numbers from the AP/NYTimes has Romney with 844 delegates. TheGreenPapers.com however shows Romney with a "hard" delegate count of 724. It is not out of the question to believe that Romney might miss the mark.
UPDATE: After carefully reviewing the strategies the anti-Romney alliance is pursuing, the chances of Romney entering the Tampa RNC convention with 1,114 delegates is remote. Romney will not have enough support to attain 1,114 delegates due to the nationwide resistance to his candidacy. Please read my latest post on the subject here.
These last 2 months are key. The monster delegations of TX-Open, May 29 (152 delegates) and then CA-Closed, June 5 (169 delegates) could very well be the needle that breaks the back of the establishment. Get to your phones and encourage your friends and family living in TX and CA to vote. Election Notes: This Saturday is the Louisiana caucus which RP supporters from outside the state are welcomed to attend and speak on behalf on the man. This coming Tuesday is the election of 4 states including North Carolina which will give us a good idea of how Ron Paul will do following Newt and Santorum quitting. Open primaries in Indiana and Texas. Nebraska and Montana hold the last contests and they are caucuses taking place June 10th and 16th, respectively.
[For a schedule of the remaining contests] http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential...
[Thanks to http://thegreenpapers.com my GOTO resources to understanding the delegate allocation process.
News Sources List of RP's Successful Delegate Hunt!
[Ben Swann's Reality Check (from FOX-19 Cincinatti, OH) gives a great breakdown on RP's delegate strategy] http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=7pxTkS24gXQ
Colorado (33 at least, win) (SOURCE: http://www.9news.com/news/article/263040/339/Colo-GOP-conven...)
Iowa (14 at least, win and more coming) (SOURCE: http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/04/21/...)
[Rachel Maddow's speaks about the new winner of Iowa and RP's delegate success] http://youtu.be/EfS1x5RnZZQ
Minnesota (20 at least, win and more to come) (SOURCE: http://wetheconservatives.com/ron-paul-wins-20-out-of-24-con...)
Nevada (TBD @ State Convention RP controls) (SOURCE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va8gXdzfziE)
Washington (Yet to be fully counted but win coming!) (SOURCE: http://www.policymic.com/articles/7460/ron-paul-wins-washing...)
Nothing is over until it is over! Romney is starting to look real bad and so is the media. Let's keep up the pressure!!
It is critical to encourage RP supporters across the country into action. Pennsylvania saw 23,983 fewer votes for RP than 4 years ago (2008: 129,323 compared to 2012: 105,340). We need to be on top of communicating our message and telling people what is really happening instead of just letting the media have their ways with our minds and ultimately, our hearts. We are the New Media. Our country, our way of life will fail if we do not speak up.