64 votes

#RonPaul upset in the works!

NEW POST: A discussion on the Anti-Romney strategy! Contest the final 14 states and challenge the 30 remaining state conventions for those remaining delegate slots.

After Last Tuesday’s Election Night How is Ron Paul's Campaign Doing?

Rumors of the demise of the Ron Paul campaign have been vastly overestimated.
The Ron Paul Paul r3OVLution continues!

While Mitt Romney did sweep the East Coast primaries last night, there is an interesting subplot happening within the Republican presidential nominating process that few, particularly those in the media, are aware of. Ron Paul’s “delegate strategy” seems to be working with clear delegate wins declared in at least 5 states with more expected (to mention a few North Dakota, Maine, Oklahoma). With the departure of Santorum and Gingrich (expected Tuesday), the organizational strength and fundraising prowess of the Paul campaign is the last serious challenge that Romney has going into the August nominating convention in Tampa.

This turn of events might not be a surprise to you if you've been a Ron Paul supporter from the beginning. So don't be surprised to see even last night's series of election outcomes overturned by the grassroots winning the remaining open delegate slots at their local district conventions... Could there be a real upset in the making?

It has always been clear that Ron Paul has the best campaign and national grassroots support aside from Romney and was truly the only other serious campaign effort. This observation from last year has now become our current reality. Ron Paul could very well be nominated at the Republican National Convention in Tampa in late Summer.

Ron Paul has won the majority of delegates in at least 5 states. According to RNC rules, a candidate needs the majority support of at least 5 state delegations to the national convention in order to make it on the ballot in the nomination process at the national convention. This means Ron Paul will definitely be on the GOP ballot in Tampa this August

[Fox News reports Ron Paul will be on the convention ballot] http://youtu.be/UJrU97VBI8g

We are the future of the party. This is our party to make of it what we want. While Ron Paul is our banner and ideological leader, We made his candidacy happen. Together we can save our country from its many troubles and enjoy a life of peace and prosperity for ourselves and our families. The support Romney has is from members of the party that are generally over the age of 40 and those who see him matching up best against Obama. Yet despite all the media and institutional support for him (i.e. presumptive nominee), Romney cannot break 70% support for his candidacy in any recent contest. Think about it this way: Nearly 1 in 3 Republicans dislike Romney so much that they still will not vote for him. Does anyone really think Romney can win if 1 in 3 Republicans refuse to vote for him come November? I don’t think so…

Ron Paul’s delegate strategy is working! 3 of the 5 states Romney supposedly won, DE, CT & NY were completely winner-take-all. Of the remaining 2 states, RI and PA, Ron Paul won 4 and at least 5 delegates, respectively. Jake Towne has a great breakdown on the PA effort where he reminds us that all of the PA delegates are unbound no matter (meaning: not controlled by Romney). Tuesday's Delegate Breakdown: Connecticut (25 by winner-take-all), Delaware (17 by winner-take-all), New York (34 by winner-take-all, 58 by district conventions, 3 unbound super-delegates), Pennsylvania (none bound, no winner-take-all, 15 by state committee selection, 3 super-delegates, 54 by district conventions), Rhode Island (strictly proportional, Paul won 4 delegates). The 127 delegate slots up for grabs in PA were voted on too (as unaffiliated individuals) and the Paul campaign was able to pick up a half-dozen or more delegates (the real final number of RP delegates out of PA has not been published). It’s still possible to see complete upset in PA ruining Romney's perfect sweep from Tuesday if the Santorum/Gingrich delegates could be persuaded to cast an anti-Romney vote at the convention. But the strategy of picking up delegates continues. Add the other 15 states that have yet to vote (816 delegates left, 360 of which are won at the district level which are mainly in the RP strongholds of TX and CA). There is a lot more yet to happen!!!

[Jake Towne article on RP successes in PA primary] http://www.nolanchart.com/article9583-ron-paul-wins-5-delega...

Only 4 of the remaining 15 states are winner-take-all. Indiana, California, New Jersey-open? and Utah-open? have a total of 308 winner-take-all delegates. [?-Apparently, voters here can change their voter registration to vote Republican on the same day, like in IA or NH. Can someone confirm this?]

Take Heart! Romney needs to reach 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. Even if Ron Paul's campaign doesn't achieve stronger electoral success in the remaining primaries, it will probably remain statistically uncertain if Romney had reached the magic number come August. The future of our country rests on that close of a margin. And Ron Paul's delegate strategy hinges on Romney not getting to 1,144. The exaggerated numbers from the AP/NYTimes has Romney with 844 delegates. TheGreenPapers.com however shows Romney with a "hard" delegate count of 724. It is not out of the question to believe that Romney might miss the mark.

UPDATE: After carefully reviewing the strategies the anti-Romney alliance is pursuing, the chances of Romney entering the Tampa RNC convention with 1,114 delegates is remote. Romney will not have enough support to attain 1,114 delegates due to the nationwide resistance to his candidacy. Please read my latest post on the subject here.

These last 2 months are key. The monster delegations of TX-Open, May 29 (152 delegates) and then CA-Closed, June 5 (169 delegates) could very well be the needle that breaks the back of the establishment. Get to your phones and encourage your friends and family living in TX and CA to vote. Election Notes: This Saturday is the Louisiana caucus which RP supporters from outside the state are welcomed to attend and speak on behalf on the man. This coming Tuesday is the election of 4 states including North Carolina which will give us a good idea of how Ron Paul will do following Newt and Santorum quitting. Open primaries in Indiana and Texas. Nebraska and Montana hold the last contests and they are caucuses taking place June 10th and 16th, respectively.

[For a schedule of the remaining contests] http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential...

[Thanks to http://thegreenpapers.com my GOTO resources to understanding the delegate allocation process.

News Sources List of RP's Successful Delegate Hunt!

[Ben Swann's Reality Check (from FOX-19 Cincinatti, OH) gives a great breakdown on RP's delegate strategy] http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=7pxTkS24gXQ

Colorado (33 at least, win) (SOURCE: http://www.9news.com/news/article/263040/339/Colo-GOP-conven...)

Iowa (14 at least, win and more coming) (SOURCE: http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/04/21/...)

[Rachel Maddow's speaks about the new winner of Iowa and RP's delegate success] http://youtu.be/EfS1x5RnZZQ

Minnesota (20 at least, win and more to come) (SOURCE: http://wetheconservatives.com/ron-paul-wins-20-out-of-24-con...)

Nevada (TBD @ State Convention RP controls) (SOURCE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va8gXdzfziE)

Washington (Yet to be fully counted but win coming!) (SOURCE: http://www.policymic.com/articles/7460/ron-paul-wins-washing...)

Nothing is over until it is over! Romney is starting to look real bad and so is the media. Let's keep up the pressure!!

It is critical to encourage RP supporters across the country into action. Pennsylvania saw 23,983 fewer votes for RP than 4 years ago (2008: 129,323 compared to 2012: 105,340). We need to be on top of communicating our message and telling people what is really happening instead of just letting the media have their ways with our minds and ultimately, our hearts. We are the New Media. Our country, our way of life will fail if we do not speak up.

Amicus libertatis

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never look back

... in a race. Focus on your own rhythm and pace ... let nothing distract you. Gradually move ahead while never looking behind ... pass the competition and close on the leader while wasting zero energy. Close the gap on the lead position towards the end of the race ... then UNLEASH your sprint as the finish line comes into view. Throw everything in your body at this final sprint ... remaining focused on the final distance and never looking back. Win it.

sharkhearted's picture

This is a splendid forum...

Thank you, Hector!

~Chris
Norfolk, VA

~Chris
Norfolk, VA

Time to INVESTIGATE the investigators of 9/11. PROSECUTE the prosecutors. EXPOSE the cover-up.

Thanks Chris!

My next post on this subject has just hit the front page!!!! Woo!

Welcome back and thanks for the bump!

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Bugs in the machine's picture

California voters must be

California voters must be registered republican by 5/21 (but let's just say 5/14 to be safe). They CANNOT register R at the polls. The new law in California has open primaries in everything EXCEPT for Presidential race.

I'm also pretty sure California delegates are awarded as winner-take-all per congressional district. Further, each district gets 3 delegates that go directly to national convention. As I understand it, there is no state GOP convention where national delegates are selected.

I'm in Southern California. I know there is some Ron Paul support out here, but the news doesn't cover him.

Hopefully the appearance at UCSD this Friday 5/4 (whoo hoo, I'm goin!) will make some waves. Attendance should be spectacular.

By claiming there is no conspiracy, you prove to those who believe in the conspiracy that you are part of the conspiracy.

It seemed like two sets of delegates...

Those selected by the vote in the congressional district and those selected by the statewide vote.

I'm just not sure if there are individuals on the ballot or a candidate with a slate of delegates assigned to each candidate.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

don't believe there are names on a ballot

Each candidate has named his own delegates for each Congressional District and several at-large delegates. If Romney wins any of these, his CD or at-large delegates become the national delegates. Likewise with Paul. There is zero opportunity for stealth delegates in California. They are all picked by the campaigns, and they'll pick strong supporters.

Good thing this is a primary then..

where the focus of the RP grassroots will be concentrated in CD's that they can win by a lot.

I hear there's good work being done in San Diego and a strong contingent in and around San Fran.

Don't know much else about the state but I'd be happy to wait a month to find out instead of having the beans spilled here.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

California take all?

California take all?

Yes... but!

Past CA polls never give Romney much higher than 44%. This just might be a good place for the anti-Romney grassroots to make an impact. It is a 2-man race after all and it takes place on June 5 (which is a long time in the election calendar).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ca/ca...

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Sorry Hector, it is not

a 2-man race!! Insaneitorium and the Grinch are STILL on the ballots in many states, as their campaigns haven't pulled the plug..they have been "suspended". All part of the Man's plan to keep Ron down!

------------------
BC
Silence isn't always golden....sometimes it's yellow.

"The liberties of a people never were, nor ever will be, secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them." - Patrick Henry

Don't worry so much you're still young

California primary takes place in June. That's a whole month away. A month where all anyone will hear about is Paul and Romney.

In fact, just because of how this works out the turnout will be very, very low. This will become a battle of organization.

A month is a long time in electoral terms.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Thanks, thought I read it

Thanks, thought I read it was per district. We have alot of work to do this mo. We need Texas! And more.

Its winner take all at statewide and district levels seperately

The selection of Presidential Nominating Convention Delegates to the Republican National Convention ... shall be chosen by the Presidential candidate who obtained the plurality of Republican votes within each Congressional district, and, for ... at large ... by the Presidential candidate who obtained the plurality of Republican votes statewide

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/CA-R

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Great Post!

Great Post!

To arms! To arms! The Redcoats are coming!

Monster post...thank you!

Monster post...thank you! However, Romney's actual delegate numbers stand at 599 according to this link...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_p...

Scroll down....way down to see the numbers. Romney is orange.

Look at Iowa, Washington, Maine, Minnesota, and PA....

Never be afraid to ask simple questions.

You're right...I'm still confused about how the lists...

...give Romney 800+ delegates... (There aren't enough RNC delegates out there to bump his numbers that high).

The numbers in Wikipedia do show the results of last Tuesday's contests but they do not show the number of committed or endorsed super delegates to Romney. The other lists include these numbers and are updated accordingly.

But it matters not. None of the these vote totals matter. Romney has to convince everyone that he has the winning delegate count at the August Nat'l convention.

There is still quite a bit that can happen from here on out.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

My old ships motto works well

My old ships motto works well here....

Victoria Per Perserverantiam Venit ("Through Perseverance Comes Victory").

Let's send this message to Romney...

...Requiescat in Pacem

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Texas RP Contact

Can I have details of a contact/contacts in Texas who can brief ppl willing to vote for Ron Paul but have zero political participation experience? If so I can get friends and family to contact this RP hand holder. Thanks.

Thanks

Thanks for responses. Purrfect! =D

TX campaign effort message

Reports the RP campaign:

The Ron Paul 2012 Texas headquarters is located at 845 West Plantation Drive, Clute, TX 77531. Initial office hours are from 10:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 2:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. on Sundays. Those interested in volunteering for the campaign should contact the Clute office directly by calling 979-473-9995 or emailing texas@ronpaul2012.com.

BTW, I would not be surprised if Ron himself dropped in occasionally to thank his volunteers, to whom he is so grateful.

H/t LewRockwell.com

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Paul TX Campaign

RP Texas State Director, Cole Harrison, coleh@ronpaul2012.com

Efforts to become registered delegates are done. Now the efforts are being concentrated in the primary. The primary is proportional so whoever at least 20% gets delegates from the pool of delegates already selected.

Check out the TX Meetup groups and ask them for more info.

RP AUSTIN http://www.meetup.com/Austin-RonPaul2012/
RP DALLAS http://www.meetup.com/DFW-Activism-for-Ron-Paul/
RP HOUSTON http://www.meetup.com/Houston-Liberty/

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Ron Paul will up his attacks...

Ron Paul will decimate Mitt Romney on Conservative issues - fiscal, social and Constitutional in his next ad campaign. Ron will need more money, much more money but who knows how much anti-Obamney cash is sitting on the side-lines? With RS and NG out it comes clearly down to "who can beat Obama" - and the polls are in our favor

Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy

Timing is everything!

Looks like we are counting on the We the People to rally and support Ron Paul against Romney.

We need to encourage people that it is not too late.

Santorum and Gingrich really sucked a lot of enthusiasm out of the anti-Romney vote. They were never "In It, to Win It" and they have done their job as ringers.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Nice breakdown!

How I hope you're right!

What are you fightin' for?
Caught in the middle?
Freedom is only for those with the guts to defend it!

The key sentence

It is not out of the question to believe the Romney might miss the mark.

Like it's not out of the question that you'll win a $1M lottery?


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

How else would you state it?

Is there a possibility? Yes. Is it slim. I won't argue with that point.

“There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle.”
― Albert Einstein

Of course, we work to organize and encourage each other until the miracle happens.

I feel like I had this conversation with you back in 2008.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Thanks

Thanks

a nod's as good as a wink to a blind bat

sharkhearted's picture

Bumpity bumpity

BUMP!

~Chris
Norfolk, VA

~Chris
Norfolk, VA

Time to INVESTIGATE the investigators of 9/11. PROSECUTE the prosecutors. EXPOSE the cover-up.

NY and CT delegates are chosen by Romney camp

And by state committees that are using the result of the vote. It's actually not at all like some of the other states where you're attempting to become stealth delegates. That's just not an option there. In PA, the delegates have already been chosen. It's only a few delegates in RI and DE that are even going to be up for grabs, and the chances of getting those are slim.