20 votes

Important! From the poll numbers, Romney vs. Paul... if undecided, Santorum and Gingrich voters vote for Ron

Ladies and gentlemen,

I would like to inform you that, thanks to the website www.uselectionatlas.org, I was able to find past poll results in the remaining primary states. This website uses an average and they see which state is leaning to which candidate. Anywho, the point of my thread is to inject some hope.

The polls show that if the remaining states had a Romney vs. Paul matchup, Paul, thanks to Santorum, Gingrich and undecided voters, as well as the Paul voters, would WIN the remaining states. R is Romney while P+ is Paul plus all the anti-Romney voters

Indiana: R 27%, P 9%, O 64%

R: 27%
P+: 73%

North Carolina: R 32%, P 13%, O 55%

R: 32%
P+: 68%

West Virginia: R 13%, P 6%, O 81%

R: 13%
P+: 87%

South Dakota: R 20%, P 13%, O 67%

R: 20%
P+: 80%

Nebraska: R 18%, P 8%, O 74%

R: 18%
P+: 82%

Montana: R 17%, P 11%, O 72%

R: 17%
P+: 83%

Utah: R 67%, P ?, O 33%

R: 67%
P+: 33%

New Mexico: R 16%, P 6%, O 82%

R: 16%
P+: 84%

Oregon: R 33%, P 10%, O 57%

R: 33%
P+: 67%

Texas: R 35%, P 10%, O 55%

R: 35%
P+: 65%

New Jersey: R 42%, P 10%, O 48%

R: 42%
P+: 58%

California: R 43%, P 10%, O 47%

R: 43%
P+: 57%

Why did I decide to put this up? If we can make flyers of these poll numbers, showing that Ron can win these states with the help of Santorum, Gingrich and undecided voters, we can actually sway them.

We can tell them that if they vote for Ron, they'll actually stop Romney from getting the nomination and they'd allow for Ron to win enough states and delegates to actually have an open convention. We need to try this at least! Polls don't lie.

While it may seem too much to assume all Gingrich, Santorum and undecided voters will all vote for Ron, I don't think it's far-fetched to tell them that we need their votes and only voting for Ron will allow for an open convention.

Time to print flyers up, baby!

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There's just so many things wrong with this i can't even start

In some places you have Romney below 20%!!! This is not even the slightest reflection of reality. How old was this polling data?

You expect anyone to believe that Paul would beat Romney by 60-75 points in 5 States!!!??? Romney, a week ago, was polling at 48% in North Carolina, how is he down 16%? And even more staggering, how is Paul up 56%? Then West Virginia? Paul to beat Romney by 74%? It's just nonsense.

umm...

You clearly do not understand this post. This post is to show former Santorum/Newt supporters and undecideds that IF they vote for Ron Paul they can make a difference and there IS a viable alternative to Romney. Quit assuming this is *real* data -- it is not and the author of this post made no such claim. It's only purpose is to attract voters by showing them they CAN make a difference and end Romney's winning streak.

"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." - Anonymous
http://youtu.be/cjkvC9qr0cc

PLEASE tell me what good this

PLEASE tell me what good this post is. If you show this to a non-RP supporter they will just laugh at you, and rightfully so. If for no other reason than because using this model, Ron Paul should have won Pennsylvania 62%-38%. And ALL the states this week proved that not only is Ron Paul not getting ALL of Santorum's voters..he is not even getting as many as Romney is. Romney's numbers increased by more than anyone else. Same with the recent Texas poll, which show Romney getting about half of Santorum's voters and Ron Paul getting about 10% of them.

Not to mention...the site you went to is using VERY old polls. Some from LAST YEAR. For some states, that is because they haven't polled them since then, and won't now. For others, like North Carolina (where Romney is polling at 48%) they are just using an old poll for some reason. Similarly...the latest poll in Texas has Romney at 45%, New Jersey has Romney at 51%, Oregon has Romney at 38%,

And if you are saying "well you have to take the averages of all the polls no matter how old, well then you just don't understand statistics. You can take the average of differnet polling companies results of only their most RECENT poll...like RCP does. But averaging an April 2012 poll with a poll taken in September of 2011 is absurd. You HAVE to realize that. And simply USING a poll that was taken before the primaries began (like New Mexico or Kentucky....who was last polled last AUGUST! and probably others) is also ridiculous. Sorry...but I am an engineer. Math is my career and passion. And silliness and ignorance regarding it drives me nuts.

If you are going to post this to give people hope, why not just post that Romney might get struck by lightning 6 times between now and August...and after Santorum rejoins the race (which he did if there was any scandal involving Romney) HE gets struck by lightning 4 times. Because that is actually MORE likely to happen than your scenario

You are trying to CONVERT non-Paul supporters, are you not? Or are you just trying to post feel good news on this forum? Because if it is the former, you would be failing badly by bringing up this information. Optimism is fine. Sticking your head in the sand is not. Not if you want to be taken seriously. After all..when is the last time you listened to what an ostrich had to say about politics? For me, it has been at least 6 or 7 years. Because the last one wasn't very knowledgeable.

The author of this post is

The author of this post is merely showing that IF Santorum/Newt/Undecideds vote for Ron Paul, he CAN win and they together can end Romney's winning streak. It's really unfair and ridiculous to assume this is *real* data -- this post makes no such claim. This is solely to convert voters that say "Ron Paul can't win" and such...that they can change the scenario. :)

"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." - Anonymous
http://youtu.be/cjkvC9qr0cc

something screwy with the site

dupe

dupe post

...

dupe post

crap...why did it say my post was not posted?

Important bump to make sure

Important bump to make sure Paulites in states that haven't voted yet please, please try to go after the anti-Romney voters by printing plyers of this poll info. Tell them their vote will decide whether Romney gets the nod or we get closer to an open convention. :)

bump

...shows you just how manufactured Romney's "presumptive nominee" status really is.

"Alas! I believe in the virtue of birds. And it only takes a feather for me to die laughing."

Bump for President Paul

B-U-M-P!!!

A big if, but useful

Regardless of the likelihood of winning all the non-Romney delegates, this information is useful in talking to other Republicans who still view Romney as unacceptable. You have demonstrated that there is still a way for someone other than Romney to win the nomination (Paul). Let's hope that Ron can become the new anti-Romney.

Great post!

I'm gonna try and make some flyers :)This is excellent information to show to non-RP supporters who don't like Romney. Let's show them Romney CAN be squelched and that there IS a viable alternative to Romney.

"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." - Anonymous
http://youtu.be/cjkvC9qr0cc