-12 votes

What are the chances of a brokered convention?

In order for a brokered convention to happen, there must be no candidate who has 1144 delegates. This means that if we want to stop Mitt Romney from getting 1144 delegates, the COMBINED delegate total for Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich must be 1144 or more. A few days ago, I posted a list of Paul and Romney delegates state by state and counted the delegates myself. This count includes all of the 100% confirmed delegates with no speculation of who will win delegates at the upcoming conventions. First off, I now a lot of you are going to be nagging me saying that Ron Paul has a lot more delegates than this, but please keep in mind that these are only the CONFIRMED delegates. I know that Ron Paul will have a lot more once the non-binding caucus states go through all their conventions but I don't feel comfortable trying to guess what the delegate count will be in those states. This does, however, include the non-binding states that have had conventions like Minnesota, Missouri, ND, and Iowa. So far the results look something like this:

Romney - 791
Paul - 88
Santorum - 226
Gingrich - 136

To see exactly how I came up with these numbers please see the entire list here: http://www.dailypaul.com/229219/total-delegate-count-for-rom...

If you want to dispute this count please argue on that post and not on this one because the purpose of this post is to talk about what must happen for a brokered convention.

The combined total of Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich delegates is
450. Now as I said, Ron Paul will be getting a lot more delegates from the upcoming conventions. We won't know what his real count is until then but I think he can easily get to 225-250 delegates. If we assume that's his real delegate count the combine total of the non-Romney delegates is 612. Still, this is not nearly enough to block Romney from getting 1144. So the only way to block Romney from getting 1144 is for Ron Paul to win some primaries. Or at least, someone besides Romney must win some primaries. So far the most promising States for Ron Paul is Texas and California and perhaps North Carolina. Texas will award 152 delegates proportionally, California awards 169 in a winner-take-all, and North Carolina awards 52. But even if Ron Paul wins all of the bound delegates from these states, this will bring the total non-romney delegate count to 985, still not enough for a brokered convention. An easier way to think of it is that the total non-romney delegate count is around 612 so 1144-612=532 So we must block Romney from getting 532 delegates in the upcoming primaries. In other words, Ron Paul (or at least someone besides Romney) must win the majority of the remaining primaries. The 120 RNC super delegates are also an obstacle to a brokered convention since most of them will surely go to Romney but as long as the we block the 532 from Romney it won't matter how many RNC delegate Romney has. To help you get a better idea of what must happen here is a list of all the upcoming Primaries and how many delegates come from each of them. I have excluded the RNC delegates from these states.

Indiana - 27 (plus 16 unbound delegates appointed by the state committee)

North Carolina - 52

W. Virginia - 28

Oregon - 25

Arkansas - 33

Kentucky - 45

Texas - 152

California - 169

New Jersey - 50

New Mexico - 20

S. Dakota - 25

Utah - 40

Please tell me what you think.



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Easy Question!!!

Likely delegate count currently is:
Romney: 758
Paul: 289

I agree with the Romney total, I mean he's done well. So that means he is about 391 delegates away from being the nominee without a brokered convention. There are about ~760 delegates left to be assigned.

Ron Paul and Gingrich need to pull in better than 369 of the remaining 760 delegates to create a brokered convention. With Santorum in the race that would be easier.

This means Paul needs to win delegates wherever possible. The liklihood of Romney not getting these delegates without a Ron Paul /Gingrich surge or Romney collapse is difficult, unlikely but not impossible. If voters can abstain at the convention, then the could the delegate strategy prevent an automatic nomination? I don't know. The stealth delegate strategy may only come into play...if a vote is required.

Remaining States:
May 8th (129)
IND 45
N.C. 55
W.VA. 29

May 15th (51)
Neb 33
Ore 28

May 22nd (81)
Ark 36
Ky 45

May 29th (155)
Tex 155

June 5 (297)
Calif 171
Mont 25
NJ 50
N.M. 23
SD 28

June 26 (40)
Utah 40

The true delegate count , there ISN'T one!

The delegate counts so far in the 2012 GOP Nomination race are all estimates . No one really knows who has how many , they are all estimates .This is because many state primaries are not binding , they are won for the moment but those states do have the option of changing their candidate. Some states delegates are binding , and can only be released from their candidate by either the candidate releasing them to another candidate ( Santorum & Gingrich ) or if a Brokered Convention goes to a second round or more of voting if a candidate doesn't get the 1,144 delegates on the first vote ...

I'm going to defend Brad

I'm going to defend Brad here. We shouldn't be fighting about this. The effort Brad is making by pointing out the numbers for a brokered convention is the exact thing that separates us from the Romney establishment hacks. We are strategic and disciplined. While maintaining optimism is absolutely vital for our movement, we need to continue to ask ourselves all of the "what ifs"

I have to agree

It is important that we keep these numbers in mind going forward; it's a reality-based reminder of what we need to have in order to get the convention past round one of the delegate voting.

Just like how the GOP can not win without us in November, we can not win in Tampa if we don't have Paul/Gingrich/Santorum delegate totals at 1145+.

It's all about keep the eyes on the prize, get as many delegates as we can in the remaining contests, hope that Romney don't have more than 1143 bound delegates for round one's vote, and see what happens.

Nobody ever said this was gonna be easy. Just look where the movement started from. But it is important, and we need to focus.

I honestly have no idea what

I honestly have no idea what they are complaining about. Nothing I wrote in this post diminishes Ron Paul's chances of winning. It simply lays out what will need to happen in order for him to win.

Brad

Mittsy Bitsy Trolls

Today holds too much good news. Try not to pay any attention to this concern-troll.

Keep knocking on doors. Keep making phone calls. Keep donating to the campaign. Keep winning delegates. Keep taking-over the party. We will win, the question is when?

For a 4 week old DP member you are

awfully pessimistic. It sure makes me wonder what your true motive is?

hthomas

What exactly in the post was

What exactly in the post was pessimistic??

Brad

http://lemonglobalnews.blogspot.com/

the closest to accurate delegate count can be found at lemonglobalnews.blogspot.com
-or just google "lemon global delegate count"
(click first link on right side of page)

shows PRESIDENT PAUL at OVER 500 delegates!
or just under 400 delegates!

depending on whether santorums delegates being bound or unbound...

optimystic's picture

What happened to Montana and Nebraska?

They didn't make your list. Don't we get to vote and send delegates?

I didn't include those states

I didn't include those states because they are non-binding caucus states. Those delegates are apart of the 250 estimate that I gave because I believe that Ron Paul will get most of the delegates from those states regardless of the straw poll results.

Brad

OK

I get where you're coming from with your numbers Brad and I understand how you are defending this post because it probably took a while to compile. But......
I've been tracking and watching the delegate process every day all year and I can tell you that our stealth delegates are far greater than what everyone thinks they are. I'm not going to give #'s because I don't want to reveal too much, and you seem a little suspect to me based on a lot of your former posts.

You see, what you don't understand is, those of us in winner take all States knew we weren't going to win the popular vote but we knew we could still become delegates... and we did, and we are, and we will.

Today was proof of what IS happening, HAS happened, and WILL continue to happen

I already know about the

I already know about the stealth delegates. In fact, in my state of Oklahoma, Ron Paul supporters swept most of the conventions. This is why we must get to a brokered convention because then all of those delegates will then be able to vote for Ron Paul.

Brad

By the way

We have just taken over the Republican party in Alaska!

To arms! To arms! The Redcoats are coming!

The claim that you can't abstain from voting

as a delegate bound or not is bogus. In every single convention delegates has done so. All delegates alternate and not MUST show up at the convention and we can win this.

Either that or the delegates

Either that or the delegates could make a motion to unbind all the delegates before the first round of voting starts.

Brad

What about abstaining

Other posts on this site say delegates can abstain on the first ballot. I read the RNC rules for 2012. I don't see it as possible, but I could be wrong. This is much too important to screw up. We need correct information.

Thnx

Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.

John Adams

I'm not sure what the rules

I'm not sure what the rules are about abstaining. But the purpose of this post is just to explain what must happen to stop Romney from getting 1144.

Brad

Before Romney can use his 1100+ delegates if he gets them

Does he not have to be nominated from the floor by a majority of at least 5 states.... What if that never happens?

We were concerned with RP getting 5.... What if Romney doesn't?

Plus we don't have to nominate Romney's VP do we? We can elect our own right?

Romney already has way more

Romney already has way more than 5.

Brad

Your assessment is Flawed.

Your assessment is Flawed. example...

Massachusetts Romney: 38

You gave Romney all the delegates in Mass

We swept the floor with Romney today in many districts!!!

When we take this fight to state, who will stop us from unbinding all of the delegates?

When we take it to Tampa, who will stop us from ABSTAINING from the first vote if we are still bound to Romney?

We are picking up delegates where people thought we would never be able to.

Hell just got news today that we have Ron Paul delegates in SC of all places.

This fight is far from over. We will not stop! We WILL just WIN!

To arms! To arms! The Redcoats are coming!

Yes, I'm aware of what

Yes, I'm aware of what happened in Massachussets. Ron Paul supporters got elected to delegate positions. But they are still BOUND to Romney. If they end up unbinding all of the delegates at the State convention then I will update this but I don't think that will happen. So until then, that is what Romney's delegate count is from Massachusetts. I never said that the delegates won't abstain at the National convention. Maybe they will. But this post has nothing to do with that. I am just telling people what will need to happen in order to stop Romney from getting 1144.

Brad

I understand what you are

I understand what you are saying. I am saying once the convention starts all bets are off. Abstaining in itself will take numbers away from him. But I agree we should stop at nothing to do whatever we can to stop the "presumptive" nominee.

RP2012

To arms! To arms! The Redcoats are coming!

Lets see if we can beat the -64

Brad.king92 (aka debbie downer) has on this post
http://www.dailypaul.com/228201/why-ive-lost-faith-in-the-de...

November 6th 2012 I voted for Dr.Ron Paul
"We must remember, elections are short-term efforts. Revolutions are long-term projects." ~ Ron Paul

-65...

Just for sh*ts n giggles

De criminalize Liberty!

I'm simply giving the facts.

I'm simply giving the facts. If you think I'm wrong then please show me where I went wrong.

Brad

I know you are wrong and you'll get the facts in Tampa in August

There are things happening in the background with the official Ron Paul campaign that will not be revealed to the public until the convention.

You cannot give the facts when you do not have all or the correct information. Let it go and quit discouraging people with your "facts" please.

Keep pressing forward with what we have been doing. Trust that we can win this because it is going to happen with the continuation of Rons supporters help.

I will not take any questions on this because do you think for one minute that the campaign will divulge all of their strategy?

And don't bother trying to contact me privately about this.

November 6th 2012 I voted for Dr.Ron Paul
"We must remember, elections are short-term efforts. Revolutions are long-term projects." ~ Ron Paul

Ok. So their are facts that I

Ok. So their are facts that I don't know but I'm not allowed to ask you what they are. Fair enough.

Brad

Here's a fact:

No one will know until AFTER the first round of voting in Tampa how many delegates ANY candidate has.

The word is out about abstaining and that is what will determine everything.

I for one take all number crunching with a grain of salt. Time will tell.

True. We don't know how many

True. We don't know how many of the delegates will refuse to vote. Be we can still have a good idea of how many delegates are bound to vote.

Brad