Actually, Mitt Romney is secretly winning a lot FEWER delegates than you thinkSubmitted by hectorinmiami on Tue, 05/01/2012 - 15:28
Actually, Mitt Romney is secretly winning a lot FEWER delegates than you think
It's not just about Romney losing the upcoming contests, its also about him losing the delegates he supposedly already has...
The Mainstream Media and political bigwigs in both parties have declared Mitt Romney the presumptive GOP nominee. This “presumptive” declaration is at best premature when even favorable estimates have Romney hundreds of delegates short of reaching the magic number of 1,144 delegates required to win the Republican nomination.
Romney needs about 300 more delegates from the remaining 14 contests to claim the nomination.
Meanwhile, there is a final charge being mounted by the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance to make sure Romney does not reach the 1,144 by contesting the last 14 states or by winning hundreds of delegates in states he's supposedly already won.
Various published Romney delegate counts are as follows:
CNN 841 (SOURCE: CNN.com)
AP/NYT 847 (SOURCE: AP/NYT GOP Primary Page)
The Green Papers 869 (SOURCE: TheGreenPapers.com)
These numbers are VERY generous for Romney. In fact, they are not real. There are 14 states remaining in the primary calendar with 816 delegates up for grabs and about 30 state conventions yet to meet and allocate more than 1,100 delegates of their own (over 1,916 total delegates unallocated). There are only a total of 2,286 delegates. 83% OF ALL DELEGATES HAVE YET TO BE AWARDED!!!
Recent events, however, indicate that Romney’s supposed delegate wins may not be as secure as once thought. This past week, county delegate nominating conventions in Iowa, Minnesota and Colorado were swept by Ron Paul supporters (and anti-Romney activists) leaving Romney with fewer delegates than expected and in the case of Iowa no expectation of delegates whatsoever (SOURCE: PolicyMic).
Clearly, the resistance to Romney’s potential candidacy is mounting a final two-front challenge not only in the upcoming 14 contests taking place next week through June but also in the county and state delegate nominating conventions scheduled through mid-July in 30 states that have already held their primary or caucus (SOURCE: Wikipedia).
In case you were not paying attention:
Romney can LOSE delegates.
Take a look at Iowa for example, CNN reports Romney to have won at least 7 delegates but in reality Paul supporters have taken the state GOP over and with it the RNC superdelegates (also known as RNC delegates) of chair and vice-chair. Furthermore, Paul supporters are expected to sweep the remaining state delegation slots for Paul in the upcoming state convention coming out of Iowa (SOURCE: IB Times).
Stripping 40-50 Romney delegates from Florida, Arizona and Idaho totals. 3 states Florida, Arizona and Idaho illegally apportioned their delegates by winner-take-all and can still be forced by the RNC to reapportion their delegates proportionately. According to the RNC, "The rules allow any eligible Florida primary voter to challenge the delegate award. The challenge will be considered by the RNC’s Committee on Contests, which will meet right before the summer convention" (SOURCE: Newt Gingrich to challenge Florida winner-take-all delegate rules).
In another twist to this scenario, the Massachusetts delegation, a supposedly safe Romney territory, was swept by Paul supporters in district conventions (SOURCE: PolicyMic). Even Romney's Former Lt. Governor, Kerry Healey, lost her delegate bid because of Ron Paul grassroots efforts (SOURCE: Ron Paul supporters defeat many of Romney's picks to Tampa). Despite the fact that these delegates are bound to vote for Romney in the first round of the convention there is much talk about the ability to vote “abstain” and not offer any support to any candidate in the hopes of forcing a brokered convention.
Four years ago, John McCain was not well liked by many in the grassroots and 14 delegates with that sentiment showed their displeasure by voting “abstain” (SOURCE: Wikipedia, also see Youtube explanation, courtesy of Matt Larson, on the Abstain Voting Tactic). It may well turn out to be that a large number of anti-Romney delegates will have made it into the convention and will nullify this entire election cycle by forcing a brokered convention using this tactic. For another read on this idea of stealth delegates please read TheGreenPapers.com commentary on the procedural nature of what is involved (SOURCE: STEALTHY IS AS STEALTHY DOES...).
REMEMBER: The Anti-Romney Strategy is NOT based on stealth delegates voting abstain. Rather, it is forcing a brokered convention by beating Romney out of the 800 or so delegates voted on at 30 remaining state conventions AND crushing him in the next 14 contests. GOT IT? In fact, voter turnout is SO FRIGGIN LOW that all we probably need is just a better turnout from 2008(!) to beat them!
In response to this existential threat, the Romney campaign has ordered draconian measures on Republican conventions that would clearly be overtaken by anti-Romney parties and continue their work to attain high percentage, primary wins in the remaining 14 contests (Source: Romney Hawks Believe in Ron Paul Threat).
Measures to combat insurgent grassroots locally have seen conventions canceled and SWAT teams used to break up gatherings as well as exorbitant fees charged to either delay bad outcomes or weaken grassroots resolve.
Washington County Chair Cancels Convention Just Before Ron Paul Delegate Slate is Voted In
SWAT team sent to break up MO Caucus before a Ron Paul supporter is voted caucus chair
Alaska GOP charges last minute convention fee, then refuses to collect payment causing many RP delegates to be excluded.
The name of the game being played is PERCEPTION.
The Romney campaign must maintain the perception of its inevitability or else lose precious momentum to the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance whose goal is to force a brokered convention.
At a brokered convention, anything can happen. (Read my footnote below for more about this topic).
In 1920, Warren Harding won a brokered convention starting with the least number of bound delegates. He went on to win by a landslide in the general election. Ron Paul has been compared to a present-day Warren Harding (Source: EPJ).
After doing some research, chances are slim to none that Romney will enter the Tampa convention with 50%+1 control of the delegates and thus will not have the nomination on the first round (shenanigans aside) because delegates are allowed to vote their conscience. Instead of party bosses "brokering" a deal to select the nominee, the RNC rules allow the delegates to choose and broker for themselves a nominee according to their conscience. If Romney is truly so overwhelming disliked by the party faithful, then his chance of winning the favor of the delegates to become the nominee is NIL. Any conflict in the rules of the state GOP are overruled by the RNC rules (Source: FairVote.org - A delegate has the grounds under Rule 38 of Rules of the Republican Party to vote as a free agent. Also stated, there has never been any legal obligation for a delegate to vote according to instructions from their state).
Ben Swann from FOX 19 Cincinnati, Ohio also reports on the validity of Rule 38 and discusses what it means for this election cycle (SOURCE: Reality Check with Ben Swann, May 3, 2012). Is Ben Swann's team reading my articles on the Daily Paul?
The Romney campaign has relied on the PERCEPTION of the presumptive nominee built from media generosity and victories due in part to an election schedule packed with winner-take-all contests in relatively friendly states.
In what could be a twist of fate, only 4 of the final 14 contests remaining are winner-take-all. This could cause a number of Romney campaign election stumbles in the coming weeks potentially crippling their chances of maintaining their hard fought image of the presumptive nominee.
This past Saturday, for instance, Ron Paul won the Louisiana caucus with 74% of the vote (Source: Sun Herald). A minor hiccup for the Romney campaign but a potential speed bump as the delegate fight continues forward. At the same time, the Alaska GOP was firmly taken over by Ron Paul supporters (allied with activists close to Sarah Palin who has never endorsed Romney) (Source: AK GOP New Chair supports Ron Paul).
Deciding Factor: Next week’s contests in Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia will be the first indication of a coalescing anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance that will continue the fight in the following 11 contests and also in a potential brokered convention.
There are many questions to be answered in the next coming weeks:
How many more state GOPs will be overtaken by Ron Paul supporters?
How many more delegations will be won by the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance?
How will the Romney campaign and the Mainstream Media continue to push the idea of the presumptive nominee?
How will the media and political establishment ultimately react to the image of the presumptive nominee slowly being chipped away by the change in political winds?
Whatever happens in the upcoming weeks, this is a turning point in the history of the Republican Party and ultimately the United States and the world.
A Personal Note of Concern: The TRUTH no one seems to be talking about is that these GOP state conventions and even the RNC convention in Tampa are meetings governed by Robert's Rules of Order and accordingly it is the gathered meeting that decides what rules to follow and most importantly, what rules to change. In Tampa, the entire collective of Republican leadership can do nothing if a SUPER-majority of delegates decide to change the rules, vote a new chairman and even select a completely different nominee. This is most likely why the RNC is so concerned now and issuing fatwas against state delegations that are being overrun by Ron Paul supporters. Even the RNC like the Romney campaign need to maintain the illusion of supremacy because the RNC doesn't control anything but what people let them control.