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Actually, Mitt Romney is secretly winning a lot FEWER delegates than you think

Actually, Mitt Romney is secretly winning a lot FEWER delegates than you think

It's not just about Romney losing the upcoming contests, its also about him losing the delegates he supposedly already has...

Previous Post: #RonPaul upset in the works! Update on RP delegate strategy.

NEW! Next Post: 7 Secrets Destroying The Candidacy of Mitt Romney.

The Mainstream Media and political bigwigs in both parties have declared Mitt Romney the presumptive GOP nominee. This “presumptive” declaration is at best premature when even favorable estimates have Romney hundreds of delegates short of reaching the magic number of 1,144 delegates required to win the Republican nomination.

Romney needs about 300 more delegates from the remaining 14 contests to claim the nomination.

Meanwhile, there is a final charge being mounted by the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance to make sure Romney does not reach the 1,144 by contesting the last 14 states or by winning hundreds of delegates in states he's supposedly already won.

Various published Romney delegate counts are as follows:

CNN 841 (SOURCE: CNN.com)

AP/NYT 847 (SOURCE: AP/NYT GOP Primary Page)

The Green Papers 869 (SOURCE: TheGreenPapers.com)

These numbers are VERY generous for Romney. In fact, they are not real. There are 14 states remaining in the primary calendar with 816 delegates up for grabs and about 30 state conventions yet to meet and allocate more than 1,100 delegates of their own (over 1,916 total delegates unallocated). There are only a total of 2,286 delegates. 83% OF ALL DELEGATES HAVE YET TO BE AWARDED!!!

Recent events, however, indicate that Romney’s supposed delegate wins may not be as secure as once thought. This past week, county delegate nominating conventions in Iowa, Minnesota and Colorado were swept by Ron Paul supporters (and anti-Romney activists) leaving Romney with fewer delegates than expected and in the case of Iowa no expectation of delegates whatsoever (SOURCE: PolicyMic).

Clearly, the resistance to Romney’s potential candidacy is mounting a final two-front challenge not only in the upcoming 14 contests taking place next week through June but also in the county and state delegate nominating conventions scheduled through mid-July in 30 states that have already held their primary or caucus (SOURCE: Wikipedia).

In case you were not paying attention:

Romney can LOSE delegates.

Take a look at Iowa for example, CNN reports Romney to have won at least 7 delegates but in reality Paul supporters have taken the state GOP over and with it the RNC superdelegates (also known as RNC delegates) of chair and vice-chair. Furthermore, Paul supporters are expected to sweep the remaining state delegation slots for Paul in the upcoming state convention coming out of Iowa (SOURCE: IB Times).

Stripping 40-50 Romney delegates from Florida, Arizona and Idaho totals. 3 states Florida, Arizona and Idaho illegally apportioned their delegates by winner-take-all and can still be forced by the RNC to reapportion their delegates proportionately. According to the RNC, "The rules allow any eligible Florida primary voter to challenge the delegate award. The challenge will be considered by the RNC’s Committee on Contests, which will meet right before the summer convention" (SOURCE: Newt Gingrich to challenge Florida winner-take-all delegate rules).

In another twist to this scenario, the Massachusetts delegation, a supposedly safe Romney territory, was swept by Paul supporters in district conventions (SOURCE: PolicyMic). Even Romney's Former Lt. Governor, Kerry Healey, lost her delegate bid because of Ron Paul grassroots efforts (SOURCE: Ron Paul supporters defeat many of Romney's picks to Tampa). Despite the fact that these delegates are bound to vote for Romney in the first round of the convention there is much talk about the ability to vote “abstain” and not offer any support to any candidate in the hopes of forcing a brokered convention.

Four years ago, John McCain was not well liked by many in the grassroots and 14 delegates with that sentiment showed their displeasure by voting “abstain” (SOURCE: Wikipedia, also see Youtube explanation, courtesy of Matt Larson, on the Abstain Voting Tactic). It may well turn out to be that a large number of anti-Romney delegates will have made it into the convention and will nullify this entire election cycle by forcing a brokered convention using this tactic. For another read on this idea of stealth delegates please read TheGreenPapers.com commentary on the procedural nature of what is involved (SOURCE: STEALTHY IS AS STEALTHY DOES...).

REMEMBER: The Anti-Romney Strategy is NOT based on stealth delegates voting abstain. Rather, it is forcing a brokered convention by beating Romney out of the 800 or so delegates voted on at 30 remaining state conventions AND crushing him in the next 14 contests. GOT IT? In fact, voter turnout is SO FRIGGIN LOW that all we probably need is just a better turnout from 2008(!) to beat them!

In response to this existential threat, the Romney campaign has ordered draconian measures on Republican conventions that would clearly be overtaken by anti-Romney parties and continue their work to attain high percentage, primary wins in the remaining 14 contests (Source: Romney Hawks Believe in Ron Paul Threat).

Measures to combat insurgent grassroots locally have seen conventions canceled and SWAT teams used to break up gatherings as well as exorbitant fees charged to either delay bad outcomes or weaken grassroots resolve.

Examples:
Washington County Chair Cancels Convention Just Before Ron Paul Delegate Slate is Voted In
SWAT team sent to break up MO Caucus before a Ron Paul supporter is voted caucus chair
Alaska GOP charges last minute convention fee, then refuses to collect payment causing many RP delegates to be excluded.

Update: RNC threatens to block Nevada delegation if Ron Paul supporters take over the delegation!

The name of the game being played is PERCEPTION.

The Romney campaign must maintain the perception of its inevitability or else lose precious momentum to the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance whose goal is to force a brokered convention.

At a brokered convention, anything can happen. (Read my footnote below for more about this topic).

In 1920, Warren Harding won a brokered convention starting with the least number of bound delegates. He went on to win by a landslide in the general election. Ron Paul has been compared to a present-day Warren Harding (Source: EPJ).

After doing some research, chances are slim to none that Romney will enter the Tampa convention with 50%+1 control of the delegates and thus will not have the nomination on the first round (shenanigans aside) because delegates are allowed to vote their conscience. Instead of party bosses "brokering" a deal to select the nominee, the RNC rules allow the delegates to choose and broker for themselves a nominee according to their conscience. If Romney is truly so overwhelming disliked by the party faithful, then his chance of winning the favor of the delegates to become the nominee is NIL. Any conflict in the rules of the state GOP are overruled by the RNC rules (Source: FairVote.org - A delegate has the grounds under Rule 38 of Rules of the Republican Party to vote as a free agent. Also stated, there has never been any legal obligation for a delegate to vote according to instructions from their state).

Ben Swann from FOX 19 Cincinnati, Ohio also reports on the validity of Rule 38 and discusses what it means for this election cycle (SOURCE: Reality Check with Ben Swann, May 3, 2012). Is Ben Swann's team reading my articles on the Daily Paul?

The Romney campaign has relied on the PERCEPTION of the presumptive nominee built from media generosity and victories due in part to an election schedule packed with winner-take-all contests in relatively friendly states.

In what could be a twist of fate, only 4 of the final 14 contests remaining are winner-take-all. This could cause a number of Romney campaign election stumbles in the coming weeks potentially crippling their chances of maintaining their hard fought image of the presumptive nominee.

This past Saturday, for instance, Ron Paul won the Louisiana caucus with 74% of the vote (Source: Sun Herald). A minor hiccup for the Romney campaign but a potential speed bump as the delegate fight continues forward. At the same time, the Alaska GOP was firmly taken over by Ron Paul supporters (allied with activists close to Sarah Palin who has never endorsed Romney) (Source: AK GOP New Chair supports Ron Paul).

Deciding Factor: Next week’s contests in Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia will be the first indication of a coalescing anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance that will continue the fight in the following 11 contests and also in a potential brokered convention.

There are many questions to be answered in the next coming weeks:

How many more state GOPs will be overtaken by Ron Paul supporters?

How many more delegations will be won by the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance?

How will the Romney campaign and the Mainstream Media continue to push the idea of the presumptive nominee?

How will the media and political establishment ultimately react to the image of the presumptive nominee slowly being chipped away by the change in political winds?

Whatever happens in the upcoming weeks, this is a turning point in the history of the Republican Party and ultimately the United States and the world.


Amicus libertatis


A Personal Note of Concern: The TRUTH no one seems to be talking about is that these GOP state conventions and even the RNC convention in Tampa are meetings governed by Robert's Rules of Order and accordingly it is the gathered meeting that decides what rules to follow and most importantly, what rules to change. In Tampa, the entire collective of Republican leadership can do nothing if a SUPER-majority of delegates decide to change the rules, vote a new chairman and even select a completely different nominee. This is most likely why the RNC is so concerned now and issuing fatwas against state delegations that are being overrun by Ron Paul supporters. Even the RNC like the Romney campaign need to maintain the illusion of supremacy because the RNC doesn't control anything but what people let them control.

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Mitt Romney's REAL delegate numbers

Wikipedia has the best schedule and running tally of the delegates I have seen (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential...)

But Wikipedia reports 599 delegates in its total for Romney.

Even if all 153 RNC delegates endorsed Romney how do so many delegate counts give numbers way over 800?!

CNN 841 (SOURCE: CNN.com)

AP/NYT 847 (SOURCE: AP/NYT GOP Primary Page)

The Green Papers 869 (SOURCE: TheGreenPapers.com)

Can I get some help breaking this down?

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Delegate Count

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/true-delegate-count-achi...

As Massachusets and Louisiana have just shown. Romney's delegate count can go down as well as up.

Doug Wead suggested I was zero to 30 under for Ron Paul and about 80 over for Romney 1 to 2 weeks ago.
But there is no breakdown and no other evidence for this.
I know my Romney count is overstated but by how much and where I have no idea.
Could be 10 could be 80.

My count will be adjusted as various Conventions/Committee meetings occur and more info becomes available.

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

We need to get hundreds of abstentions

not just a few
Quite a lot of States this can be done in and some that it can't.
I haven't gone thru all the States just the largest ones and a few others - Ca and NY it can't Tx it can.
Iowa it can, Washington it can, Virginia it can, Kentucky it can.
Alaska has gone - no change to my expected delegate count.

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

We are NOT focusing on Stealth delegates...

Convincing a few Gingrich and Santorum folks to side with us long enough for to the contend the convention may be the key...

But we're convincing to help us with our MAIN strategy:

Forcing a brokered convention by beating Romney out of the 800 or so delegates voted on at 30 remaining state conventions AND crushing him in vote totals the next 14 contests.

I'm telling you, voter turnout is SO FRIGGIN LOW that all we need is a better turnout from 2008(!) to beat them!

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Yes voter turnout has been very low

And will be even lower now that both Santorum and Gingrich are out.
Romney supporters won't turn out, they will think it's a done deal -and it is NOT.
Romney generates zero enthusiasm even amongst GOP voters. So he doesn't really have any supporters, just people who watch Fox and want Obama out.

So concentrating on getting Ron Pauls's vote out and persuading ex Gringrich/Santorum supporters to not vote Romney but vote Ron Paul will pay dividends.

We can use Fox against Romney somewhat now.
To Newt/Santo fan :- If Fox hadn't been so biased your guy would still be in the race. You going to vote for Fox's candidate or give Fox a poke in the eye?

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

The rule is 5 wins gets you on the ballot

whether there's some kind of official invitation I have no idea.

There might be more info in the RNC rules...

http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf

If you might something let me know.

UPDATE:

The campaign just put out a post saying that they are "on the cusp of reaching the threshold" of 5 victories...

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/05/01/louisiana-win-edges-pa...

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

I read somewhere that

Ron Paul only has to win a plurality of delegates in five states in order to guarantee a speaking slot at the Republican National Convention. Does that mean that the Republican Party HAS to invite him after he wins five states?

Thank you newsbuster!!!!

Very well said.

The Tea Party hasn't been a friend to Ron Paul. They need to wake up! What is really funny is they love Rand Paul. Very strange indeed.

redduck

Truthbearer's picture

A most...

...excellent post.

Thank you for sharing your light.

What will be interesting indeed to see is the lying dying media turn around and subsequent posterior kissing they will do as the Truth of the fact that Ron Paul is America's true choice for President becomes very apparent. And, what will be really cool is when he is President, he can do something about all these criminals for hire with the yellow journalism degrees.

On a unrelated note, why is the newtster and santorum still on the ballots? To take votes away from Ron Paul. It becomes more and more obvious that these puppets were payed off to do exactly that. Distract and take votes from the real winner, Ron Paul. The funny things is, it is not working and the day comes closer when the winds of real change will be too obvious to hide by the lame stream zio-media propaganda machine.

+

They're on the ballot...

because they paid the money to the state GOP or collected the required number of signatures and for some various reasons (mostly because voting has already started in some places) they're names are not removed from the ballot.

And technically, the candidates haven't "dropped out" they have just "suspended" their campaign, meaning they can technically still receive votes.

That's it.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

The stop Romney coalition

If the Occupy movement, evangelicals and Tea Party want to stay relevant they need to start backing and supporting Paul. If those groups are on the up and up and have not been co-opted they would all profit by backing Paul and stopping Obama's clone Romney from reaching the magic number of delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. If they won't or don't support Paul now, they will become more irrelevant and a bad joke in the public's mind, in the future.

Its a good sign that Dick Armey's

Tea Party Express is hosting Ron and Rand Paul in the Austin this Sunday.

There must be some outreach with these established "tea party" groups.

I won't hold my breath with Erik Erikson's RedState but maybe, just maybe Palin might come on board (there was probably some backdoor deal that helped RP people takeover the Alaska GOP). Palin was there for Rand and she still hasn't endorsed anyone for president.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

utterly confusing

as a Canadian who's followed Paul since 2007,I find your whole delegate system a total brain drain...I'm hoping RP can do what Harding did and get nominated on the tenth ballot. Never give up

give up?

What the hell is that? We're taking over. This thing is just getting started.

I couldn't get any less irate and tireless. Now I've got my foothold with my Liberty prospects there's no stopping.

I was born a Liberty sleeper cell and activated in 2008 when RP got through to me. Holding the conflicting ideas of the status quo foreign policy in my head was too hard. To be free you must give up liberties. Whaaaa??? Not me, never going to cower in fear of terrorism, be it state sponsored or blowback.

- TX Delegate

Surrender, but we have not yet begun to fight?

When John Paul Stevens (father of the american navy)fought the british frigate Serapis his situation was desperate. The British gunners had blown huge holes in the hull of his ship, and shot off her masts. The British captain asked for his surrender, to which Stevens replied "surrender, but we have not yet begun to fight?" The american marines went of to win control of the British ship in hand to hand combat, which was good since the American ship was so damaged by the battle that it sank as the battle was winding down.

Josh Brueggen
Engineer
Entrepreneur
Gardener
Jack of all Trades
Precinct Commiteeman Precinct 5 Rock Island Co Illinois

Yes but for good reason...

The united States of America are really 50 independent countries with a massive free trade zone, a revenue sharing agreement and mutual defense agreement. The recent history of martial law with a powerful, federal government does not affect the rules of these intra-party contests.

On the other hand, I can't understand why Canadians still honor the Queen and allow her to shut down your parliament.

I suppose we're both confused about the other's country.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Is there a tally somewhere of how many RNC delegates have

already been selected and who they support?

I'm not talking those presumed to be selected and pledged, I'm talking actually already known and selected officially either by State Convention or other means.

Until we know who the actual delegates are, the total for every candidate is ZERO.

This needs to be stressed to no end.

The LSM has been counting un-hatched chickens.

We should be counting only those that have hatched and are still "alive."

Anyone have that data? If so, it should be in a front page persistent thread and updated as actual delegates are chosen.

Delegate Count

Each state has the names of each delegates and whom they support, rather Comney, Paul or undecided. Those names are then forwarded to both campaign headquarters. So, to answer your question, yes, there is a list but we will never see it.

Joined the Liberty Movement in Anchorage, Alaska, 1977. Ron Paul supporter since 1983.
In Liberty from the Pacific Northwest.

These web pages have some,

These web pages have some, although not all, of the answers that you are looking for.

http://www.dailypaul.com/229987/superdelegates

That should handle the super delegates, but that's only 150 of

over 2000 total.

But it's a start - thanks!

greenpapers has the info but

greenpapers has the info but it is spread out into each state's page.

Do they show actually chosen delegates, or just more of the

"presumption" numbers calculated differently?

I'll go take a look - thanks.

usually both =]

usually both =]

also, when they project, they usually make that pretty clear!

IMPORTANT

What should be quietly told to RP and Santorum supporters is that "bound" delegates CAN vote for Ron Paul on the first round of vote in Tampa. The bounding part is just a "pledge" to a private entity (private state party) and has no legal contract. The worst punishment could be party membership termination (and even that is not in the books.)

In 1976 Delaware bound delegates violated their pledge and voted for Reagan with no penalty later.

Citation

Please provide a link to the evidence for your claim.

I cited the legal basis in my article...

FairVote.org - A delegate has the grounds under Rule 38 of Rules of the Republican Party to vote as a free agent. Also stated, there has never been any legal obligation for a delegate to vote according to instructions from their state).

Apparently, there have been rogue delegates in every convention for the last 100 years (starting with the vociferous Teddy Roosevelt movement).

http://www.fairvote.org/response-to-a-rogue-convention-how-g...

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Great Post!

I hope I'm not being petty but the only thing that stuck in my eyes was the mention of a SWAT team. There was no SWAT team, only what looked like a few policemen or deputies. SWAT are para military dressed in black usually with full military kit. That didn't happen and we certainly have enough right on our side so that we can afford to avoid exaggerating any wrongs done to us. Don't get me wrong, I understand it's only one word out of one thousand that was excellently written.

Well done!

Now it's about the Constitution and the fight to defend it.

10 code enforcement agents and a flying black vehicle...

If there was no SWAT assault team or paddy wagon, then what happened?

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

You'd have to talk to the guys that were there

but to me it sounded like the off duty cops got scared, then a call went out and then as you might know, any cop in the area drops whatever he's doing to save his bro in blue. They were showing up from all directions in all forms. I think when the RP guy (later to become chairman) said something like, we have to hurry before the swat teams show up, he was being facetious.

Now it's about the Constitution and the fight to defend it.

love it

Thanks for this awesome break down. It is work like this that keeps us all going. We march forward to victory no matter what the media, the establishment, the old guard says. We have the people and history on our side to prevail in the end. FOR LIBERTY! RON PAUL 2012~