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Actually, Mitt Romney is secretly winning a lot FEWER delegates than you think

Actually, Mitt Romney is secretly winning a lot FEWER delegates than you think

It's not just about Romney losing the upcoming contests, its also about him losing the delegates he supposedly already has...

Previous Post: #RonPaul upset in the works! Update on RP delegate strategy.

NEW! Next Post: 7 Secrets Destroying The Candidacy of Mitt Romney.

The Mainstream Media and political bigwigs in both parties have declared Mitt Romney the presumptive GOP nominee. This “presumptive” declaration is at best premature when even favorable estimates have Romney hundreds of delegates short of reaching the magic number of 1,144 delegates required to win the Republican nomination.

Romney needs about 300 more delegates from the remaining 14 contests to claim the nomination.

Meanwhile, there is a final charge being mounted by the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance to make sure Romney does not reach the 1,144 by contesting the last 14 states or by winning hundreds of delegates in states he's supposedly already won.

Various published Romney delegate counts are as follows:

CNN 841 (SOURCE: CNN.com)

AP/NYT 847 (SOURCE: AP/NYT GOP Primary Page)

The Green Papers 869 (SOURCE: TheGreenPapers.com)

These numbers are VERY generous for Romney. In fact, they are not real. There are 14 states remaining in the primary calendar with 816 delegates up for grabs and about 30 state conventions yet to meet and allocate more than 1,100 delegates of their own (over 1,916 total delegates unallocated). There are only a total of 2,286 delegates. 83% OF ALL DELEGATES HAVE YET TO BE AWARDED!!!

Recent events, however, indicate that Romney’s supposed delegate wins may not be as secure as once thought. This past week, county delegate nominating conventions in Iowa, Minnesota and Colorado were swept by Ron Paul supporters (and anti-Romney activists) leaving Romney with fewer delegates than expected and in the case of Iowa no expectation of delegates whatsoever (SOURCE: PolicyMic).

Clearly, the resistance to Romney’s potential candidacy is mounting a final two-front challenge not only in the upcoming 14 contests taking place next week through June but also in the county and state delegate nominating conventions scheduled through mid-July in 30 states that have already held their primary or caucus (SOURCE: Wikipedia).

In case you were not paying attention:

Romney can LOSE delegates.

Take a look at Iowa for example, CNN reports Romney to have won at least 7 delegates but in reality Paul supporters have taken the state GOP over and with it the RNC superdelegates (also known as RNC delegates) of chair and vice-chair. Furthermore, Paul supporters are expected to sweep the remaining state delegation slots for Paul in the upcoming state convention coming out of Iowa (SOURCE: IB Times).

Stripping 40-50 Romney delegates from Florida, Arizona and Idaho totals. 3 states Florida, Arizona and Idaho illegally apportioned their delegates by winner-take-all and can still be forced by the RNC to reapportion their delegates proportionately. According to the RNC, "The rules allow any eligible Florida primary voter to challenge the delegate award. The challenge will be considered by the RNC’s Committee on Contests, which will meet right before the summer convention" (SOURCE: Newt Gingrich to challenge Florida winner-take-all delegate rules).

In another twist to this scenario, the Massachusetts delegation, a supposedly safe Romney territory, was swept by Paul supporters in district conventions (SOURCE: PolicyMic). Even Romney's Former Lt. Governor, Kerry Healey, lost her delegate bid because of Ron Paul grassroots efforts (SOURCE: Ron Paul supporters defeat many of Romney's picks to Tampa). Despite the fact that these delegates are bound to vote for Romney in the first round of the convention there is much talk about the ability to vote “abstain” and not offer any support to any candidate in the hopes of forcing a brokered convention.

Four years ago, John McCain was not well liked by many in the grassroots and 14 delegates with that sentiment showed their displeasure by voting “abstain” (SOURCE: Wikipedia, also see Youtube explanation, courtesy of Matt Larson, on the Abstain Voting Tactic). It may well turn out to be that a large number of anti-Romney delegates will have made it into the convention and will nullify this entire election cycle by forcing a brokered convention using this tactic. For another read on this idea of stealth delegates please read TheGreenPapers.com commentary on the procedural nature of what is involved (SOURCE: STEALTHY IS AS STEALTHY DOES...).

REMEMBER: The Anti-Romney Strategy is NOT based on stealth delegates voting abstain. Rather, it is forcing a brokered convention by beating Romney out of the 800 or so delegates voted on at 30 remaining state conventions AND crushing him in the next 14 contests. GOT IT? In fact, voter turnout is SO FRIGGIN LOW that all we probably need is just a better turnout from 2008(!) to beat them!

In response to this existential threat, the Romney campaign has ordered draconian measures on Republican conventions that would clearly be overtaken by anti-Romney parties and continue their work to attain high percentage, primary wins in the remaining 14 contests (Source: Romney Hawks Believe in Ron Paul Threat).

Measures to combat insurgent grassroots locally have seen conventions canceled and SWAT teams used to break up gatherings as well as exorbitant fees charged to either delay bad outcomes or weaken grassroots resolve.

Examples:
Washington County Chair Cancels Convention Just Before Ron Paul Delegate Slate is Voted In
SWAT team sent to break up MO Caucus before a Ron Paul supporter is voted caucus chair
Alaska GOP charges last minute convention fee, then refuses to collect payment causing many RP delegates to be excluded.

Update: RNC threatens to block Nevada delegation if Ron Paul supporters take over the delegation!

The name of the game being played is PERCEPTION.

The Romney campaign must maintain the perception of its inevitability or else lose precious momentum to the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance whose goal is to force a brokered convention.

At a brokered convention, anything can happen. (Read my footnote below for more about this topic).

In 1920, Warren Harding won a brokered convention starting with the least number of bound delegates. He went on to win by a landslide in the general election. Ron Paul has been compared to a present-day Warren Harding (Source: EPJ).

After doing some research, chances are slim to none that Romney will enter the Tampa convention with 50%+1 control of the delegates and thus will not have the nomination on the first round (shenanigans aside) because delegates are allowed to vote their conscience. Instead of party bosses "brokering" a deal to select the nominee, the RNC rules allow the delegates to choose and broker for themselves a nominee according to their conscience. If Romney is truly so overwhelming disliked by the party faithful, then his chance of winning the favor of the delegates to become the nominee is NIL. Any conflict in the rules of the state GOP are overruled by the RNC rules (Source: FairVote.org - A delegate has the grounds under Rule 38 of Rules of the Republican Party to vote as a free agent. Also stated, there has never been any legal obligation for a delegate to vote according to instructions from their state).

Ben Swann from FOX 19 Cincinnati, Ohio also reports on the validity of Rule 38 and discusses what it means for this election cycle (SOURCE: Reality Check with Ben Swann, May 3, 2012). Is Ben Swann's team reading my articles on the Daily Paul?

The Romney campaign has relied on the PERCEPTION of the presumptive nominee built from media generosity and victories due in part to an election schedule packed with winner-take-all contests in relatively friendly states.

In what could be a twist of fate, only 4 of the final 14 contests remaining are winner-take-all. This could cause a number of Romney campaign election stumbles in the coming weeks potentially crippling their chances of maintaining their hard fought image of the presumptive nominee.

This past Saturday, for instance, Ron Paul won the Louisiana caucus with 74% of the vote (Source: Sun Herald). A minor hiccup for the Romney campaign but a potential speed bump as the delegate fight continues forward. At the same time, the Alaska GOP was firmly taken over by Ron Paul supporters (allied with activists close to Sarah Palin who has never endorsed Romney) (Source: AK GOP New Chair supports Ron Paul).

Deciding Factor: Next week’s contests in Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia will be the first indication of a coalescing anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance that will continue the fight in the following 11 contests and also in a potential brokered convention.

There are many questions to be answered in the next coming weeks:

How many more state GOPs will be overtaken by Ron Paul supporters?

How many more delegations will be won by the anti-Romney, pro-Paul alliance?

How will the Romney campaign and the Mainstream Media continue to push the idea of the presumptive nominee?

How will the media and political establishment ultimately react to the image of the presumptive nominee slowly being chipped away by the change in political winds?

Whatever happens in the upcoming weeks, this is a turning point in the history of the Republican Party and ultimately the United States and the world.


Amicus libertatis


A Personal Note of Concern: The TRUTH no one seems to be talking about is that these GOP state conventions and even the RNC convention in Tampa are meetings governed by Robert's Rules of Order and accordingly it is the gathered meeting that decides what rules to follow and most importantly, what rules to change. In Tampa, the entire collective of Republican leadership can do nothing if a SUPER-majority of delegates decide to change the rules, vote a new chairman and even select a completely different nominee. This is most likely why the RNC is so concerned now and issuing fatwas against state delegations that are being overrun by Ron Paul supporters. Even the RNC like the Romney campaign need to maintain the illusion of supremacy because the RNC doesn't control anything but what people let them control.

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I might be the only one who

I might be the only one who cares, but the title of this thread is horribly mangled English.

How about: "Mitt Romney has fewer delegates than popularly believed."

HaHa

I like it though....and good info

To arms! To arms! The Redcoats are coming!

You're right!

That's what draws attention in copy writing...bad English that breaks with grammar conventions.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

It didn't just break with

It didn't just break with convention, first it bludgeoned convention, then shot it in the back of the head... gangsta style!

Sorry, can't help myself:

More Delegate Are Belong To Us!

"We are not human beings having a spiritual experience; we are spiritual beings having a human experience"—Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

By my count, Romney only has

By my count, Romney only has about 576 delegates, not this 800 crap.

I always thought that the inflated delegate numbers

were from Romney-committed RNC delegates...but there are only 153 RNC delegates (from a total of 2,286 delegates).

Can you post a link to your breakdown?

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

If Paul is allowed to give a

If Paul is allowed to give a speech before the voting process and in front the entire delegation, I sincerely believe it will be his best one EVER. I have a feeling that many of the Romney people have never been "shown the light", and when Paul gives his speech, they won't be able to escape and hold their head in the sand any longer. The majority of opposing delegates in the audience will be convinced that his message of freedom and liberty is the only path to victory in November.

I think

It will also be his best speech, because I think that he has spent a lot of time writing it, and revising it; making it better each time.

"To say, 'nothing is true', is to realize that the foundations of society are fragile, and that we must be the shepherds of our own civilization. To say, 'everything is permitted', is to understand that we are the architects of our actions.

I think they should hold a

I think they should hold a rally the night before, and like pack the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stadium. That way all the delegates could attend as well as everyone in the area. Scare the crap out of the Romney Campaign.

GREAT IDEA! ;)

We would easily pack that sucker full too.

Ron Paul 2012

it's Indiana, West Virginia, and North Carolina

not Oregon :P i've been waiting months to vote for Paul in NC so i've known what states are voting on May 8th for a while :)

uGHZ

Thanks for the correction... Oregon is next after so I must have merged it in somehow.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Huge Subtle Thing Many Miss

Even if the inflated Romney delegate numbers are close to correct there is a secret weapon. 3 States actually.

Florida, Arizona and Idaho (Idaho was this complicated gotta reach 50% rule in order to win the votes at a caucus...illegal). All three of those states illegally (by RNC rules) allocated their delegates as winner take all! We can challenge the seating of those delegates and force the delegates in those states to be proportionally allocated thus taking away approximately 40-50 delegates from Romney's total.

Newt Gingrich talked about this often, how he would challenge at the RNC and get them awarded proportionally.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/newt-gingrich-to-chal...

"If you put a gun to my head and said vote Romney/Gingrich/Santorum...I would say pull the trigger!"

love your signature. is that your quote?

and can i use it) :)

Now it's about the Constitution and the fight to defend it.

Sure Use the Signature!

It is an old joke where you just insert whatever thing you wouldn't do even with a gun to your head in the middle. I heard a Democrat in my office say it about Rick Santorum. I didn't know who to attribute it to so I just put it in quotes since it isn't original.

I just added the other GOP RINO's to make it fit the campaign. Go for it!!

"If you put a gun to my head and said vote Romney/Gingrich/Santorum...I would say pull the trigger!"

Idaho, shame on you!

I was there, and Mitt was pronounced the winner, before even the second round of voting. The whole thing was SO confusing, nobody knew what the heck was going on, and so many people couldn't go because they could not just go vote, it was hours and hours. I had to leave before it was over to get my babysitter home. Terrible! I thought it was very shady. Now I know it was!
Is there anything I can do now to help in Idaho?

The world is my country, all mankind are my brethren, and to do good is my religion.
-Thomas Paine

Check out the rules...

http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf

According the article about Gingrich's pledge to make a complaint about the Florida winner-take-all situation you should be able to find the applicable rule there.

Also, feel free to call the RP campaign and ask them for more information.

However, it was always my understanding that only Republicans from the same violating state can make a complaint.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Trusting Gingrich for the challenges?

I think that no one should be taking Gingrich's pledge seriously.

Paul's campaign needs to be preparing to challenge the winner take all system on it's own.

Gingrich has a proven track record as a liar and as a dealmaker. I would suspect that his campaign will be under budget and out of time to accomplish these challenges.

Paul needs a specific plan to make these challenges as efficiently and legally as possible.

Obviously, Gingrich will NOT

Obviously, Gingrich will NOT be challenging delegation seating because he will be paid off by Romney to do what he wants done.

All I was pointing out is a path for the Ron Paul campaign to challenge and get those delegates proportional and show that it is a legit challenge and we should be able to win it.

"If you put a gun to my head and said vote Romney/Gingrich/Santorum...I would say pull the trigger!"

The intent of this writing...

...is to encourage an INDIVIDUAL and not the campaign to file the complaint.

It's probably best that the campaign not be directly involved so they can disavow the action.

Go ahead and file the complaint. Learn the rules from how it's been done in the past. Feel free to call the RNC and ask for more information. They should at least point you to someone who can give specifics.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Michigan moved up, too

They were penalized as well but they were a proportional contest. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_Republican_primary,_2012

I've been making the case that if these states are not stripped of their winner-take-all status (after an official complaint to the rules committee for each state by a register Republican from that state) then a simple point of order from the convention floor should be able to strip those offending state delegations from having any voting privileged.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

Blowback

Be careful of using force of numbers: If you strip one state delegation, other delegates may see this as unfair (undemocratic) and there could be blowback.

In winner-take-all states for Santorum, it might be seen as a kindness simply to unbind them -- but first invite them to a sit-down with Ron Paul.

Also, point out to the delegates that holding out means they'll have to be wooed (some things never change), whereas, if they give their votes to the presumed winner as they are expected to do, they'll just be taken for granted.

All this should be considered, but I'd leave the strategy to an expert few, and keep their advice out of the public eye. What we need to work on is a strategy, with back-ups, for communicating on the floor, and brainstorming with your fellow delegates what to do in different scenarios (so, for example, we don't nominate too many delegates and split our own vote).

What do you think? http://consequeries.com/

There are numerous articles

There are numerous articles written about those 3 states and how to make them proportional. There is a video of Gingrich speaking about this as well. It is widely known in other circles, I have never seen it discussed here.

I am not and will not post strategy that would hurt the campaign. Thanks!

"If you put a gun to my head and said vote Romney/Gingrich/Santorum...I would say pull the trigger!"

This has all been publicly discuss before...

I don't feel like we have a necessity censor ourselves in this case.

Its really open to anyone to make a complaint to the rules committee.

In fact, Gingrich spent $10+ million in Florida and it was well understood that the RNC would force Florida into proportional delegation appointments out of respect to the Gingrich effort.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

'Open' convention not 'brokered'

According to this

http://www.dailypaul.com/216711/the-delegate-race-arizona-an...

When candidates drop out, their delegates are no longer bound, so for many of the states, the candidate has nothing to 'broker' at the natl convention.

"Instead of a Brokered Convention which is no longer possible by GOP rules, if no candidate on the 1st ballot gets a majority we will have an OPEN convention. Each Delegate will then be legally able to vote their conscience, based on the rules from their states."

If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy.
James Madison

Yes, its all true.

However, I still think the difference between brokered and open convention is a matter of semantics. Instead of party bosses deciding (brokering) the choices of their bound and committed delegates, the delegates themselves choose (and broker) themselves according to their conscience.

What is the point of having free will if one cannot spit in the eye of the destiny others leave you with? #ActorofConscience
www.twitter.com/HectorinMiami

I think if Ron voices his

I think if Ron voices his desire to get the US back on the right path, he'll pick up even more delegate support. "Jobs" has become the rallying cry for both Democrats and Republicans.

Liberty4Me's picture

great piece!

very well written.

Well done, Bump!

Well done, Bump!

"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain and most fools do." -Benjamin Franklin

Little Elm, Tx