In April polls Paul leads Romney in match ups with Obama – true one month averages and poll-watchers liesSubmitted by Key Largo 1948 on Wed, 05/02/2012 - 22:22
In April polls Paul leads Romney in match ups with Obama – true one month averages and poll-watchers lies
From the data in Real Clear Politics (RCP) I compare averages of all national polls that surveyed the electability of Romney and Ron Paul in April. You will find the list of polls when you scroll down the page to all polls on the candidate on the RCP screen (not just that first table on the top!) via the links I provide for each candidate below. It is not easy to find Ron Paul on RCP anymore, since about April 1st , so you may need this link. You get it by looking for Ron Paul in their “Latest Polls”.
In April RCP shows 14 polls on Romney vs. Obama and 9 polls on Ron Paul vs. Obama. Below I add all the spreads for each of the two Republican candidates remaining in the race and divide the sum by number off polls. (+) is for Obama (who still tends to win in those match ups – so I do not show the plus). (-) indicates win for Paul or Romney and “0” a tie. Spread is the Percentage Point number by which a candidate wins in any given race or poll.
Ron Paul, all April 2012 General Election spreads - from the most recent to the last:
8+2+6+5+2+(-1)+3+1+3 = 29 : 9 = +3.22 ~ 3.2
Romney, the same:
3+0+0+8+6+4+9+3+4+4+(-2)+7+8 = 54 : 14 = 3.85 ~ 3.9
The General election match ups are important to establish candidates electability. We see that in April the results are very encouraging for Ron Paul who leads Romney by almost 1 point: 3.2 ~ 3 and 3.9 ~ 4. Why are my averages SO VERY different from those of RCP, who tries to tell us their own story and has been pushing it since January at least? They tell us on their “front page” that today 5/2 Ron Paul averages +8.6 for Obama (change from 7.4 which they were showing since January on) and show Romney with +3.6. This tale has Romney lead Paul by 5 points in the match ups! Really? You know how I have come up with my results ,in which Ron Paul is the winner in the April average. In order to get their lousy falsehood of an average look at what dates RCP covers for Paul vs Romney. They are not the same!
Ron Paul.............3/10 – 5/1......+8.6 for Obama
Romney...............4/11 – 5/1......+3.6 for Obama
No, it is NOT my typo. It is 3/ for Paul and 4/ for Romney. In order to come up with bad results for Ron Paul, RCP, a “poll watcher”, added a month more worth of polling for Paul, and started counting for Romney whenever his results would come out better for him. A totally idiosyncratic choice for their “scientific” figure. What do they compare? March-April with April? Even the weather average would be different.
It is encouraging that since 4/26 Rasmussen has been doing a continuing daily survey on Ron Paul in their reports. The reports were pretty scarce before that. Is Rasmussen waking up? Good somebody in the American media is. This is a nice surprise considering that Gallup still pretends that Romney is the only Republican candidate running. Below are some Gallup results. Romney was doing rather badly until a couple days ago when he picked up a bit:
It's a pity that a respectable pollster like Gallup deceives themselves and the American voters about who is running in the GOP primaries. By them, it is ROMINEE, as John Stewart named the game yesterday.
Finally, here are Rasmussen results for the match ups in the four core states:
“Survey of 1,271 likely voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted April 16-30, 2012.”
Obama.....+46......Romney...+43......+3 for Obama
I need to check if Ron Paul was included there as well. So for now it is the end of my tale on electability of the two Republican candidates. April was good for Ron Paul.