# In April polls Paul leads Romney in match ups with Obama – true one month averages and poll-watchers lies

In April polls Paul leads Romney in match ups with Obama – true one month averages and poll-watchers lies

From the data in Real Clear Politics (RCP) I compare averages of all national polls that surveyed the electability of Romney and Ron Paul in April. You will find the list of polls when you scroll down the page to all polls on the candidate on the RCP screen (not just that first table on the top!) via the links I provide for each candidate below. It is not easy to find Ron Paul on RCP anymore, since about April 1st , so you may need this link. You get it by looking for Ron Paul in their “Latest Polls”.

In April RCP shows 14 polls on Romney vs. Obama and 9 polls on Ron Paul vs. Obama. Below I add all the spreads for each of the two Republican candidates remaining in the race and divide the sum by number off polls. (+) is for Obama (who still tends to win in those match ups – so I do not show the plus). (-) indicates win for Paul or Romney and “0” a tie. Spread is the Percentage Point number by which a candidate wins in any given race or poll.

Ron Paul, all April 2012 General Election spreads - from the most recent to the last:

8+2+6+5+2+(-1)+3+1+3 = 29 : 9 = +3.22 ~ 3.2
Obama +3.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/ge...

Romney, the same:

3+0+0+8+6+4+9+3+4+4+(-2)+7+8 = 54 : 14 = 3.85 ~ 3.9
Obama +3.9

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/ge...

The General election match ups are important to establish candidates electability. We see that in April the results are very encouraging for Ron Paul who leads Romney by almost 1 point: 3.2 ~ 3 and 3.9 ~ 4. Why are my averages SO VERY different from those of RCP, who tries to tell us their own story and has been pushing it since January at least? They tell us on their “front page” that today 5/2 Ron Paul averages +8.6 for Obama (change from 7.4 which they were showing since January on) and show Romney with +3.6. This tale has Romney lead Paul by 5 points in the match ups! Really? You know how I have come up with my results ,in which Ron Paul is the winner in the April average. In order to get their lousy falsehood of an average look at what dates RCP covers for Paul vs Romney. They are not the same!

Ron Paul.............3/10 – 5/1......+8.6 for Obama
Romney...............4/11 – 5/1......+3.6 for Obama

No, it is NOT my typo. It is 3/ for Paul and 4/ for Romney. In order to come up with bad results for Ron Paul, RCP, a “poll watcher”, added a month more worth of polling for Paul, and started counting for Romney whenever his results would come out better for him. A totally idiosyncratic choice for their “scientific” figure. What do they compare? March-April with April? Even the weather average would be different.

It is encouraging that since 4/26 Rasmussen has been doing a continuing daily survey on Ron Paul in their reports. The reports were pretty scarce before that. Is Rasmussen waking up? Good somebody in the American media is. This is a nice surprise considering that Gallup still pretends that Romney is the only Republican candidate running. Below are some Gallup results. Romney was doing rather badly until a couple days ago when he picked up a bit:

http://race42012.com/2012/05/02/poll-watch-gallup-2012-daily...

It's a pity that a respectable pollster like Gallup deceives themselves and the American voters about who is running in the GOP primaries. By them, it is ROMINEE, as John Stewart named the game yesterday.

Finally, here are Rasmussen results for the match ups in the four core states:

http://race42012.com/2012/05/02/poll-watch-rasmussen-core-fo...

“Survey of 1,271 likely voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted April 16-30, 2012.”

Obama.....+46......Romney...+43......+3 for Obama

I need to check if Ron Paul was included there as well. So for now it is the end of my tale on electability of the two Republican candidates. April was good for Ron Paul.

## Comment viewing options

### Do you REALLY need to be

Do you REALLY need to be corrected with this faulty logic? You are pretty much comparing apples to oranges by loading up Ron Paul's average with the right leaning Rasmussen results while bogging Romney's average down with the left leaning others. It would be like polling to see which tea had the most fans..the Yankees or the Kansas City Royals. And for the Yankees, you poll people in all states, including ones like Boston that hate them. But for the Royals, you ONLY poll people in Kansas City. And then saying "Well...the Royals are polling higher than the Yankees, so clearly there are more Royals fans than Yankee fans."

Look...I know you WANT it to be true..but twisting math around does not help Ron Paul. It makes you look ignorant.

Downvote me all you want, kiddies, but the ONLY reason this is true is because the ONLY polling company that is still bothering with Ron Paul is the EXTREMELY right leaning Rasmussen. So ALL of Ron Paul's entries are biased toward him. Meanwhile, Romney is dealing with all the polling companies including the extremely LEFT leaning ones.

The INTELLIGENT way (if you are truly looking for a legit comparison) would be to average just the SAME polls. JUST the polls taken on the same day. In this case, there are just two overlaps. a PPP poll and the latest Rasmussen poll. They had the same result in the PPP poll, but in the latest Rasmussen poll, Romney is behind by 3 but within the margin of error, while Paul is losing by 8. Those are the ONLY two points you can compare.

Again...you WANT it to happen, but the fact of the matter is, if you were looking at RCP on a daily basis, as I have, you would see that Romney has done better than Ron Paul in all but ONE of the polls in which BOTH Romney and Paul were polled. Take JUST Romney's Rasmussen results, and he and Obama are almost even. They don't show it now, but like I said, I have been checking EVERY day and Romney has been pretty evenly split with Obama in Rasmussen's polls for the last month or so. And he is the ONLY one to have a poll showing a REAL lead over Obama...outside the margin of error. (a 1% lead is not a lead in statistics if the margin of error is 4 or 5%.)

Sorry guys...purposely ignoring the logic of statistics does not help your credibility. Even Ron Paul himself would laugh at you and say "Nice try son...but please don't spread this around because it makes me look bad by association."

If this was a HIGH SCHOOL statistics assignment, you would get a failing grade.

### I have really pissed you off

... haven't I?

I only corrected RCP's math and straightened up their bias.

It's RCP that's comparing apples and oranges - I at least evened up the time period - to APRIL.

Rasmussen does lean Republican - but I am comparing two Republicans.

Ron Paul ... forever.

### both of you

are new accounts.

nobody knows who you are, or what your motives are.

you guys ever heard the phrase "lurk,look,learn"?

you might try it, before you launch head first into a community.

### beg your pardon? "two of you"?!

I am being attacked by a troll and you put me in the same pot with him? Any thoughts about my analysis? And the reasons for it? You know how much time it cots to come up with something new and true?

I have been supporting RP on two other venues for quite some time now. Being in the real world less safe than this site. And just read what I have posted here already. Then accuse about motives.

Ron Paul ... forever.

### Nice work!

So many liars claiming to be media.

### media lies in 2012

...are so wide and varied that it is the most scary aspect of all the mess around. I followed polls and media closely in 2008 - never before. The pollsters seemed much more thrust-worthy and the real polls were always available.

I would have never imagined that it is possible to hide a strong candidate from the average Americans' sight. Can this go any further?

Ron Paul ... forever.

### And yet YOU are trying to lie

And yet YOU are trying to lie right now. Because if you were following the polls THIS year, you would know that aside from that ONE poll 3 weeks ago, Romney HAS outperformed Ron Paul in EVERY one, along with a couple of ties.

Sorry...it doesn't matter if you WANT that to be true or not. IT just is. It is a FACT that if you have been checking RCP every day as I have, then EVERY time that Rasmussen has bothered polling Paul/OBama along with Romney/Obama, that Romney has come out better than Ron Paul all but once.

Trying to comapre different polling companies' results is either lying, or stupidity. Take your pick.

And go ahead and downvote me...but don't run away like a bitch...refute me intelligently. I would LOVe to hear your logic as to why it is OK to compare Rasmussen with Gallup. When EVERYONE accepts that Rasmussen is biased toward Republicans (which helps Paul) while Gallup is biased toward Democrats (which hurts Romney and doesn't affect Paul since they haven't polled for Paul a long time.)

So...I am dying to hear your intelligent response. If you have one.

### you are a troll

"Trying to compare different polling companies' results is either lying, or stupidity. Take your pick."

TELL THIS TO rcp.

Have you read my piece at all or you just pasting what you are payed for?

Ron Paul ... forever.

### ALL THE POLLS ARE GARBAGE

ALL THE POLLS ARE GARBAGE ANYWAYS QUIT WITH THE HATE

To arms! To arms! The Redcoats are coming!

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