7 Secrets Destroying The Candidacy of Mitt RomneySubmitted by hectorinmiami on Fri, 05/04/2012 - 01:27
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7 Secrets Destroying The Candidacy of Mitt Romney
(That the RNC does not want you to know!)
Just when you think it is all over, a combination of strategies and the well timed drop outs of Santorum and Gingrich have thrown this race for Republican nomination wide open again. Enough so to allow intrepid young Ron Paul supporters to race across the country and pick up delegates for their candidate. But that is just the start of Mitt Romney's problems.
Read below and see what I mean...
1) Romney's inflated delegate numbers, an inflated presumptive nominee story
AP/NYT give Romney a delegate count of 847 which many other counts also mirror. However, the simple, straightforward and very transparent breakdown on Wikipedia's Republican Primary Results clearly shows only 786 (when you correct their tabulation; thanks guy in the comments). Whatever you make of these numbers, they will all seem fake by what you will read next...
The 14 states remaining in the primary calendar have 816 delegates up for grabs together with about 30 state conventions have yet to meet and allocate more than 1,100 delegates (over 1,916 total delegates unallocated). There are only a total of 2,286 delegates. 83% OF ALL DELEGATES HAVE YET TO BE AWARDED!!!
If it wasn't for the media and political establishment of both parties pushing this idea of Romney's inevitability this race would have been contested more strongly and for longer. But thanks to that, Ron Paul's campaign has more than 2 months to work on organizing a convention plan to win the nomination from the floor.
Update: Delegate analysis shows Romney getting no more than 50% of delegates from first 13 states (most likely less).
2) RNC Rule 38: Delegates can vote their conscience
A delegate has the grounds under Rule 38 of Rules of the Republican Party to vote as a free agent. Also stated, there has never been any legal obligation for a delegate to vote according to instructions from their state. (SOURCE: FairVote.org).
Ben Swann from FOX 19 Cincinnati, Ohio also reports on the validity of Rule 38 and discusses what it means for this election cycle (SOURCE: Reality Check with Ben Swann, May 3, 2012).
This means that whatever delegate support for Romney or any other candidate in the first round of the convention are now in question because of Ron Paul supporters sneaking in everywhere to become delegates. In Massachusetts, for instance, Ron Paul supporters took over 40% of the delegates despite the state having been won by Romney.
3) Robert's Rules Rulz!
The results of past contests can easily be overturned at state conventions. State conventions and even the RNC convention itself are governed by Robert's Rules of Order. Accordingly, these meetings can only be governed by rules they themselves agree to. This means the assembly can choose to change the rules whenever they vote to do so. In the case of Nevada for instance they were just threatened not to change the rules and turn the entire delegation to the RNC over to Ron Paul or same being unseated from the RNC itself. The RNC clearly understands this concept.
In application, a Ron Paul or simple Anti-Romney majority at a state convention could change the rules and assign the entire state delegation to Ron Paul, despite the election outcome. Also, at the RNC convention a majority could move vote to replace the chair, change the bylaws/platform and even choose their own nominee.
Another example of the RNC and Romney resistance to this tactic is Maine. This weekend, Ron Paul supporters are poised to take over the Maine state convention and capture the entire Maine delegation. But first, they intend to elect a new chair (rather the corrupt state appointed chair) but there is HUGE resistance to this (I'm repeating myself) (SOURCE: Ron Paul Power Play in Maine).
This strategy is absolutely fair and in keeping with the traditions of our republic. For more information read, "Ron Paul delegate strategy is perfectly legitimate" vis a vie the Washington Times.
The procedure requires a super two-thirds majority in order to "suspend the rules" for the session (SOURCE: Robert's Rules of Order on Removing the President). If you don't think a super majority is possible then explain why the RNC cares so much about control and procedures, especially in Nevada.
A simple majority can adopt almost any motion except when the motion suppresses or limits debate, or prevents the consideration of a question, or, without notice acts to rescind action previously taken, that requires a two-thirds vote (SOURCE: 10. Proper Motions to Use to Accomplish Certain Objects).
The most egregious and best known historical example of a meeting being taken over and re-tasked like this was when the US Constitution was created. The original purpose of the meeting was to discuss reforms to the Articles of Confederation but instead the meeting secretly voted on throwing out the document altogether and introducing a new constitution. The result of this constitutional convention was binding and required consideration from the States. That is the power of this kind of general assembly and why so many people are wary of calling together a new constitutional convention.
4) Low, Low, EVEN Lower Turnout
It is a 2 man race and turn out is so low that Ron Paul supporters might just take popular vote totals. Low turnout is because of the popular notion of Ronney as "presumptive nominee” and the quitting of Santorum and Gingrich giving voters no reason to go to three polls unless of course their committed Ron Paul supporters or really dislike Romney and want to send a message (I guess there could also be some people madly in love with Romney too, but I digress).
Pennsylvania demonstrated this fact too well. There were 23,983 fewer votes for RP than 4 years ago (2008: 129,323 compared to 2012: 105,340). It may be possible in fact to win the remaining popular votes if the campaign can successfully motivate just the Ron Paul turnout from 2008!
5) ABR! ("Anyone BUT Romney")
Don't forget that Romney is generally disliked by the Republican grassroots because his notorious liberal record as governor of Massachusetts and then his flip-flopping to distance himself from it. He is considered the "Father of Obamacare" and has even proudly referred to himself as its "architect" (SOURCE: The Mitt Romney Report).
An alliance of these forces under the "Anyone BUT Romney" (ABR) which was what led to the rise and fall of 5 candidates in the polls and advanced Santorum to real political threat will most likely form through next week's contests and onward to a floor fight in the convention.
This is a BIG question on everyone's minds looking at next week's contests in Christian Conservative strongholds of West Virginia, North Carolina and to some extent Indiana.
Even Gingrich, reluctantly has had to clarify his endorsement of Romney, because as CNN puts it, he gave a "lukewarm embrace of presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney" in his speech ending his campaign.
Santorum too is playing hard-to-get in giving his endorsement to Romney.
It's shaping up to be an interesting primary season when both Santorum and Gingrich are reluctant to just give their support away to Romney.
Maybe they all know something more than they lead on...
Maybe there is good reason why Romney snubbed the Texas GOP invitation for a debate...
Maybe that reason is Ron Paul.
Even in safe Massachusetts where Romney served as governor, the interest in supporting the former governor was so low that Ron Paul supporters swept the local congressional district conventions preventing even Romney's lieutenant governor from taking a delegate spot (SOURCE: Romney's Former Lt Gov. Loses Delegate Bid).
6) RNC Intervention a SIGN of things to come
The Establishment is showing that it is taking this threat seriously. The RNC is taking unprecedented steps in directly intervening in the process at the state level. Nevada's recent threat is a key example. And the media is still either ignoring or attacking Ron Paul. Your enemies attack you only when they see you as a threat.
If word got out to the Republican rank-and-file that the RNC and Romney campaign are taking these threats seriously then they would have hope to still change things around and defeat Romney/Obama.
The more they tighten their grip, the more state conventions will slip through their fingers.
Update: Romney camp attempts to defraud 2 state conventions (on the same day!) by introducing fake RP delegate slates.
1) Maine scandal as reported by Jennifer "Ginger" Taylor
2) Unknown # of individuals sneak into Nevada convention with fake credentials disrupting the meeting.
7) Romney can't beat Obama (even on paper)
Has close ties to Wall Street which has taken an enormous public opinion beating...this is something to tie Obama to, not instead to the candidate of the opposition (SOURCE: Cozy relationship with Wall Street hurts Romney).
Disliked by Republican activists (but I repeat myself)
Despite the "presumptive nominee" image, the Romney camp could not break into 70% popular support in the recent primary contests despite the low turnout environment.
Clearly, at least 30% of Republicans do not support him even after an intense media and establishment campaign to crown him the Republican nominee. This stalwart group distrusts Romney and his liberal agenda so much that it even prompted Speaker Gingrich to appeal to them by referring to Romney as "a liberal and a liar who is no different from Barack Obama." OUCH!
Really bad debater...and gaffe machine
I wish I could say more but this is the guy who makes a $10,000 bet LIVE on nationally-televised debates as well as tells a crowd of mostly unemployed blue collar workers that he likes firing people.
PR Disaster Brewing! Profited from Ponzi scheme
Romney money connected to $8.5 Billion dollar ponzi scheme run by Allen Stanford (SOURCE: Romney Family Fund used to invest with Ponzi Scheme).
Don't let anyone tell you that this contest is over! It is rather, just beginning.
And then, there were two...