Primaries TonightSubmitted by Keimh3reg Peh2u Meg on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 23:44
This is my first post. I wrote it originally as an email to a friend, then decided to post it to my blog, and since it mentions the DailyPaul, here as well.
Indiana closed its polls at 4 PM. Romney appears to have won by a wide margin despite it being an open primary. Romney 64.10%. Paul 15.35%. Santorum 14.12%. Gingrich 6.43%. The at-large state and congressional district delegates will be elected at conventions on June 9. Indiana is a no-allocation, winner-take-all state (I am not sure if this is according to the primary or the convention, and if it is state-wide or on a district by district basis). It has 3 superdelegates (who are party officials and can do whatever they want), 16 unbound at-large delegates selected at the state convention, and 27 bound congressional district delegates selected by district conventions. Paul could possibly garner a sizable portion of these if the winner-take-all rule is not state wide.
North Carolina closed its polls at 5:30 PM. Romney appears to have won by a wide margin. It was a semi-closed primary. Romney 65.74%. Paul 10.90%. Santorum 10.39%. Gingrich 7.14% No Preference 5.14%. The at-large state delegates will be elected at convention on June 3. North Carolina is a proportional state. It has 3 superdelegates (who are party officials and can do whatever they want), and 52 bound at-large delegates selected by the state committee. Paul will likely take a few delegates given that there are more than 50 of them and he came in second place.
West Virginia closed its polls at 5:30 PM. Romney appears to have won by a wide margin. It was a semi-closed primary. Romney 69.57%. Paul 11.90%. Santorum 11.38%. Gingrich 6.16%. Roemer 1.00%. The at-large state, congressional district, and bonus delegates were directly elected on their candidates’ tickets. West Virginia is a no-allocation state. It has 3 superdelegates (who are party officials and can do whatever they want), 10 bound at-large delegates, 9 bound congressional district delegates, and 9 bound bonus delegates (who are basically the same as at-large delegates). Paul could have done well in this state were it not for the direct election of delegates, as West Virginia was a no-allocation (Paul’s advantage in Indiana) state and was not a winner-take-all state (Paul’s advantage in North Carolina).
Paul’s chances in Indiana and North Carolina are probably fairly good. His chances in West Virginia are dismal. However, some of the Romney delegates may yet turn out to be Paul supporters. Unless the Paul supporters among Romney’s delegates abstain on the first vote (which they may do if their state does not prohibit it and if the current Republican National Convention rules [notably rule 38, which luckily has been in place since 1964] are not adversely amended), Paul’s only chance at the nomination is a second or third ballot, i.e., a brokered convention.
There is much debate about whether a delegate can abstain and/or vote their conscience even on the first ballot even if their state binds them. I really am not sure what to think, but according to this piece, which I read a few days ago,
“As set out in the Rules of the Republican Party, delegates have the ability to vote according to the delegates’ preference, even if that is contrary to the outcome of each state’s primary. According to one source, the legal counsel for the Republican National Convention in 2008 stated: “[The] RNC does not recognize a state’s binding of national delegates, but considers each delegate a free agent who can vote for whoever they choose.” Thus, if a delegate were to challenge his or her ability to vote as a free agent, he or she would have grounds under Rule 38.”
Or as Paulestinian rp4pres on the DailyPaul put it,
“NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO delegate or alternate delegate shall be bound by ANYYYYYYYYYYY attempt of any state or congressional district to impose the UNIT RULE which is RULE 15 that allows the states to bind their delegates.”
"North Carolina" http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/NC-R
"West Virginia" http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/WV-R
"Rules of the Republican Party" http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf