Great delegate news! (brokered convention)Submitted by Brad.king92 on Wed, 05/09/2012 - 22:10
Please go read some of my other posts on delegates before you read this.
By my count, Romney currently has 849 delegates. This includes Paul supporters who are bound to Romney, and the delegates won from last nights primary. In the remaining primaries there are a total of 556 BOUND delegates that are awarded proportionally or through winner take all. Nebraska and Montana are non-binding Caucus States. This means that if Romney wins every single primary from here on, he will have more than 1144 delegates at the convention. However, If you exclude TX and CA there are only 225 delegates left to be awarded.
Oregon - 25
Arkansas - 30
Kentucky - 42
Texas - 152
California - 169
N. Jersey - 50
N. Mexico - 20
S. Dakota - 25
Utah - 40
Current Romney delegate count: 849
849 + 25 + 30 + 42 + 50 + 20 + 25 + 40 = 1081
So if Romney wins every State except for Texas and California he will only have 1081 delegates!!
Also keep in mind that if Romney comes in second place in TX or California he will still get a small number of delegates but that would raise this number by only slightly more.
So right now, the goal should be to win Texas and California and to pick up all of the delegates in Montana and Nebraska.
But there is also another obstacle to a brokered convention. There are a total of 120 RNC delegates who are unbound at the convention. If enough of these vote for Romney this will bring his 1081 above 1144.
apparently I did the math wrong a few weeks ago and I was saying that Ron Paul will need to win the majority of the remaining primaries. I officially withdraw that statement but I still think it won't hurt to try to win states like Kentucky and N. Dakota.
So in conclusion: The best way for Ron Paul to win is to
1. Focus on winning TX and California.
2. Continue picking up as many delegates as possible in the remaining non-binding States, especially Montana and Nebraska.
3. Try to sway over the RNC delegates.
In case this method fails:
1. Get as many Ron Paul supporters elected as delegates who are bound to Romney. If we 2/3 of the delegate positions we can suspend the rules and unbind the delegates.
2. If we don't have the 2/3 required, then delegates must abstain.
Please give your thoughts.