3 votes

Silver, Gold and the Future.

A few weeks ago, I noticed the talking heads hyping up a dip in gold / silver futures markets. I have long believed "Whatever the MSM says is opposite of what they mean," and this can be true for the market as well (housing bubble propped up by them for example.) However, it can be said that the MSM has a short term effect on the market and when I heard all the noise about a dip in PM's I felt I should sell half of what I got and buy at the LOW LOW ;)
See http://www.dailypaul.com/227668/silver-price-volatility-dete...

To much disdain I did not sell, but have bought what I could at the current spot prices (I hope you have as well.) I have a few question though, how long do you think it will remain low, and do you think it will take a roller-coaster ride to the top (or at least $35-$37 as the new regular) now with JPM in a hot mess? (See http://www.dailypaul.com/232433/jpm-crashing-significant-mar... - submitted by AragornSoS)

Spot prices High - Low (past 30 days)
Gold ====> $1675; $1589
silver === > $32.4; $29.0

Now if you had a few OZ of gold, or a few hundred of silver and you sold some of your stack (or half) you would be one happy person :)

Any thoughts as to what the outlook will be over the next 30 days?



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Price and the 200 MACD

The 200 day moving average was crossed at somewhere around 30.5.

I recently watched a release from early March by Mike Maloney. He illustrates that when the 200 day moving average crosses the trend line that it is a strong signal to consider buying as going forward we will not see that low again.

So to dollar cost average a position in bullion, this is the optimal point to buy.

I expect to see a slight uptrend next week and then silver will seek to test the 26 levels once again, after that we'll see a run up.

I would be buying bullion anywhere in the 28 zone if I could, just hope it stays down for a bit longer. Some bullion dealers at this time are offering good reductions in premiums over spot, this is a sign to me they want to offload inventory to be prepared to buy at coming lows.

From Mike Maloney's video, I saw the 7 points at which the trend line crosses the 200 day moving average and it seems that crossing is getting more volatile, when it crosses to the downside, we see more downside movement, and when it crosses to the upside, we see more and more upside.

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Can't say for sure...

...but I plan on grabbing at least another 50-100oz of silver next week.

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Dollar cost averaging

The well established principle in any volatile market is dollar cost averaging. In the long run you will end up with a cost that is an average of the prices during the period of accumulation and more silver than if you try to time your entry points. You will also have fewer sleepless nights.

The principle is based on the fact that you are acquiring silver ounces at different prices and when it is in a bear market as it is now it is possible to accumulate a good stock of silver before the market turns again. Then it doesn't concern you if the market falls because then you acquire more silver. This is why it doesn't bother me that the JP Morgans of the world are suppressing the silver market. It means I can buy more silver. Eventually the market will overwhelm them and their paper silver will disappear as the futures markets go into permanent backwardation.

If you are saving silver in order to hedge against the dollar then the most important thing is to accumulate as much as you can since when the dollar loses value it will do so suddenly and it may stop being viable as a currency altogether. This is when silver will be useful as a currency in its own right. This is why Dr. Paul is recommending introduction of competing currencies in preparation for that eventuality.

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No One Can Predict The Future With Accuracy !

Unless you're an insider at an investment house with deep pockets.

beesting

Like J.P. Morgan?

Perhaps their crystal ball could use a little Windex.

Correct but they can be close ;)

however, one could say that a studious person can look at the trends and make an assessment. In any regard, what is your assessment as to what you think the next thirty days will look like in Gold / Silver / and of course Monopoly money? If I would have went with my gut, I could have picked up a virtually free oz of gold or 60 oz of silver. Man one should always go with their gut. My gut is now telling me that something big is going to happen in the Global market place. Lol btw that is not called predicting the future, it is called manipulating it.

“When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” – Dresden James