The Broken Window Strategy: Belief That Ron Paul Isn't Running Isn't Good!
Submitted by JoshArizona on Tue, 05/15/2012 - 11:18Many people today have tried to spin the false impression that Ron Paul is out of the race as a good thing, and a clever strategy for use as a Trojan Horse against Romney supporters.
Many are also assuming that the media announcing he had dropped out based off of the press release, is the result of some kind of smart political play by the campaign. It is not, it is an unintended consequence. If the campaign actually wanted people to think this, why would Jack Hunter, Doug Wead and now Jesse Benton himself be refuting this and trying so hard to undo the damage done by this falsehood?
While I understand where you guys are coming from, people not knowing that Ron is still running is not a positive thing.
Don't you all remember that just yesterday, we were complaining about the media ignoring Ron Paul and giving the impression that Romney was the only one left in the race?
If this is such a "good thing" shouldn't we be thanking the Mainstream Media for acting as if he isn't running?
If I wanted people to buy a product from me, would I want them to know I was open for business, or would I want to promote a rumor that said I was out of business?
If you don't see the obvious answer there, then please for the sake of future investors, do not start your own company.
This reminds me of the Broken Window Fallacy.
Those espousing this idea are forgetting the teachings of our good friend Frederic Bastiat and focusing on what is seen, and not what is unseen.
They see that it might make some Romney supporters let down their guard, but they aren't seeing all the Ron Paul supporters or possible future supporters that don't think he is running, and won't work as hard to get him elected if they weren't under that impression.
If this is such a good idea, then why did we even campaign in the first place.
Using this chain of assumptions, we shouldn't have campaigned at all.
This is a Logical Fallacy!
It is an absurdity!
Ignorance of Ron Paul's candidacy is detrimental, not beneficial!
This is a mistake and not some purposeful grand strategy, to spin it as such we are being dishonest with ourselves.
Yes, the campaign makes mistakes, it is not infallible, and those pointing out the mistakes are not evil doers.
The campaign is run by human beings and humans are not perfect, only the concept of Liberty is.
We need to make others aware of Dr. Paul's candidacy, not encourage ignorance of it.
Please comment and upvote, so that others may see this post, and get the message.
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frankly
im tired of jesse as well
doug wead is the man though !!
"He's this eccentric Ghandi-Like figure that you cant touch with the normal bribes that people respond to."
the man Doug Wead on DR. RON PAUL
No matter how you slice it
This was a very BAD move and has Jesse Benton plastered all over it.
One of two things happened yesterday
1. The Paul campaign and RINO Rand never intended for things to go this well and they are reeling it back and caving in to fear.
2. Jesse Benton is grossly incompetent.
3. BOTH !
The idea that they were trying to some way trick the Romney camp in to not showing up for conventions is silly to say the least.They are scared if Ramrod loses it will be blamed on Paul and Rands chances will go down the tubes for 2016.
We are being sold out and obviously this was never about winning, its about beating Obama (with the help of Paul's Support) to up the chances for Rand in 2016. They figured they could lure enough of us in and sway us to vote for Romney in the end and what really has happened is they have bit off more than they can chew and they are reeling it back as fast as they can and trying to minimise the impact of the Revolution so that it doesn't leave a bad taste in the establishments mouth.
In case you folks haven't noticed, anybody can come here and read what is going on so that's out the window...only the blind fanatic would believe such nonsense and i hate to say it but there are a LOT of blind fanatics around here.
The signs say the Paul camp is laying down, there are just to many of them to ignore.
The strategy is rearing its ugly head and that strategy is to lure us in and throw us a bone so we will vote for Romney which Ive suspected for a while now.
This ole boy ain't no fool and this ole boy sure as hell wont be voting for a plastic man and after this charade, this ole boy probably wont be supporting Rand in 2016 either. Who the hell would want to after this nightmare? Jesse Benton is a Sellout!!!!! Screw me once, shame on you, screw me twice, shame on me....Cockroach Benton needs squashed!
"If ever time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin."
Samuel Adams
agreed
I will still donate 25 or 50 bux on the thursday moneybomb
I never did like the way jesse talked to the media when he was given a chance on the nbc or etc.
He came off as a snyde fellow in the interview with a continual smirk on his face, also he seemed to be helping pauls revolution for his own reason's not FREEEDOMS REASONS OR LIBERTY , which is what paul would want.
I still think the delegate strategy could pan out in the end but I think romney has enough money and secret service to bend the will of eventual delegates when they get to tampa
"He's this eccentric Ghandi-Like figure that you cant touch with the normal bribes that people respond to."
the man Doug Wead on DR. RON PAUL
Yeah
Benton's email basically says RP isn't going to win and we are going to Tampa to "shape" the party. Bullshit. The GOP is not going to adhere to any of Paul's policies no matter if we have delegates there or not. Instead of wasting time and effort on this corrupt party, why don't we go with the Constitution party and grow that one??
I can see
both sides. Texas is a proportional delegate state. I think by this getting out, it will discourage people on the fence about RP from voting for him in the primary. We want him to get the best percentage he can here to maximize the delegates. If people think he is out, they will just go pull the lever for Romney. It backfires here in Texas for him.
Josh, your sentiment may or may not be right, but...
I disagree that it is a "logical fallacy." You're comparing apples and oranges. The same in that they are both fruit but different as well. The ABOs get their information SOLEY from mainstream sources. (Hence, their ABO position.) RP supporters don't. Yesterday's news was in the form of a press release. Wead and Hunter's? Internet blog/vlog. Do you see as many (or any) headlines referencing Wead or Hunter's message today? Just ask yourself, "Today, is there a higher percentage of ABOs who now think RP has dropped out than RP delegates (or would-be delegates) who now think he's dropped out?" If there is, then that would be a positive.
Again, I'm not saying you're wrong. I would also have liked to have heard more conviction in Wead's message and concrete evidence that they are still after the PRESIDENCY not just to have a significant voice. And yes the media COULD have picked it up. But you're not necessarily right. Consider, how could RP step out of an arena crammed with 8000 people chanting "President Paul. President Paul" and just say, "Ok, We're done." That really doesn't add up either, does it?
This is just like the Broken Window Fallacy
When you ignore the unseen consequences and only look at the seen perceived positive benefits and conclude that its a net benefit, you are committing a logical fallacy.
Even one less supporter as a result, would be a net negative.
Check out the Laissez-Faire Journal at LFJournal.com
"The State is a gang of thieves writ large." - Murray Rothbard
You see a broken window. Others chemotherapy.
Two lost Romney delegates voting at a county or state convention versus one lost RP delegate is a positive. And it's likely a more than a 2 to 1 ratio.
You are assuming
You are assuming that is the correct ratio of delegate gains and losses, and ignoring the loss in supporters and future supporters.
It's not just about delegates, we want more people learn about liberty through Ron Paul, not less.
We do not know that this will effect any Romney delegates for sure, but we do know it is already disenfranchising Ron Paul supporters.
Check out the Laissez-Faire Journal at LFJournal.com
"The State is a gang of thieves writ large." - Murray Rothbard
You bring some excellent
You bring some excellent points... While I don't think the campaign did the actual media spin with this purpose in mind, I still agree with their shift in focus to help delegates more. You are correct; the campaign was out there making sure the media got it through their thick heads that hes is still a candidate for the presidency. So I make sure I also clear up this misconception if it comes up in conversation. Though it's also a given that the media will continue to try and crush Dr Paul and his supporters at all cost...
I respectfully
disagree with this post and many of the comments here.
The MSM has never been on our side, as they said we were out months ago. The ONLY thing that matters at this point is continuing the quest for delegates and to arrive in Tampa with an army.
Any hardcore supporter will have read the official press release and know that we are not out, in fact it was explicitly stated we will continue at conventions in the quest for delegates.
Delegates are already in place at the county and district levels and there is no turning back. This should not divide us but only strengthen our resolve to win.
If something like this vague statement by the campaign can tear us apart, what does that say about this movement and all the work we've put into it so far.
Strap on your boots, it aint over yet!
I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I'm just well-informed
Read my post again
No one is saying the media is our friend.
I'm pointing out the contradictory and hypocrisy of saying its good that people don't know Ron is still in the race, and criticizing the media for spreading the same rumor.
Check out the Laissez-Faire Journal at LFJournal.com
"The State is a gang of thieves writ large." - Murray Rothbard
What's with you people ?
Do you all really think that this strategy wasn't thought out ?
Dr. Paul knows EXACTLY what he is doing. He know's the pro and con response of his meaasge. Stop second guessing him and his campaign. Look at where we are right now !A few months ago, did anyone believe it was possible of gaining the majority of delegates in 11 states?
So lets all be cool people, HOLD THE LINE. It should even be more interesting from this point on....................
GOD BLESS US ALL
"Do you all really think that this strategy wasn't thought out?"
This is not the campaigns strategy, the campaign did not intend for people to believe they were out of the race.
If they intended for everyone to think that, then why are Doug Wead and Jack Hunter attempting to dispel this rumor?
This is not a strategy, its just some half-assed idea, a couple of people on this site came up with and for some reason everybody thinks it's some super secret campaign strategy.
Check out the Laissez-Faire Journal at LFJournal.com
"The State is a gang of thieves writ large." - Murray Rothbard
Yesterday there was a
Yesterday there was a coordinated effort by newly registered accounts posting about it. There were two groups working together, one saying this was a campaign "brilliant strategy" and another group saying "he's out, move on.."
At one point I observed two accounts, both hours old, replying back an forth with these two messages. So yeah, I think there was probably a coordinated attack occuring yesterday to subvert and confuse whatever the campaign's intention was.
Very interesting
Thank you for sharing your observations.
Check out the Laissez-Faire Journal at LFJournal.com
"The State is a gang of thieves writ large." - Murray Rothbard
There was also one very vocal
There was also one very vocal troll who was trolling openly, that said he was enjoying the taste of revenge.
Do you remember where these
Do you remember where these posts are?
Check out the Laissez-Faire Journal at LFJournal.com
"The State is a gang of thieves writ large." - Murray Rothbard
They were all on the front
They were all on the front page post about the campaign press release yesterday. One called himself Avenging Zionist, or something like that. That was the open troll. But there were a lot of other new accounts posting mixed messages and replying to each other on that thread. Also a lot of accounts that were 7-14 weeks old who rarely post came out of the woodwork, but that could have been just because it was big news, etc.
Texas primary is proportional
Why would he use all of the wording in his message as past tense before a big primary? Even if he didn't win the state, he could still pick up more delegates.
It isn't all past tense. The
It isn't all past tense. The use of the past tense to describe the change in strategy makes sense, it just feels out of place because we have known about this delegate focus for a long while now... If the campaign had sent this kind of email out sooner, it probably wouln't have felt so "past tense". But it is the fact that this feels like old news to many people here who have been following along. However most people think the primary is already over and Romney has started his general campaign against Obama. The campaign has to address that reality somehow.
MAybe because
of the massive fraud in the primary contests? Most of those delegates that will be elected proportionally will still be RP supporters because they have already won their respective counties and districts.
It's too late, we've already put this in motion. There is nothing the opposition can do now except cheat to make sure our people are not delegates for Romney.
And of course they will be.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I'm just well-informed
There was ZERO reason for the
There was ZERO reason for the campaign to release a statement saying they stopped spending money.. it accomplished ZERO, other than creating frantic supporters and a field day for reporters saying eh dropped out.. it was a disaster...
If you disagree with me on anything you are not a real libertarian...
Poor Choice of Words
Very, very, very poor choice of words at exactly the wrong time. Dr. Paul is probably the smartest man I've ever met, so I don't think he necessarily did this. I think it was a monumental screw up by the campaign to make it sound like he is dropping out as we're just starting to rack up state after state.
Then again, perhaps he's slowly backing out of the Republican party to run third party. We all knew he'd have a tough time winning the GOP nomination because of so many brainwashed Hannity and O'Reilly listeners. I didn't realize the media would attack him a hundred times more viciously than in 2008. I also didn't realize the GOP would so blatantly lie, cheat, and steal to keep him out of office. The fact is the GOP was never going to let him win. Let's be honest. That isn't Dr. Paul's fault; its the fault of short-sighted local party bosses and bought-and-paid-for national ones.
I hope he sees this through the convention and then decides to run third party. Ideally, he could run in the Libertarian party and Gary Johnson would step down and agree to be his running mate.
The 'Home on the Range' fallacy.
Good post! Thinking that this publicity is positive is a joke.
One problem I have noticed on the DP is the failure to discriminate between 'negativity' and constructive criticism.
"Where never was heard a discouraging word, and the skies were not cloudy all day" is fine for a dopey western classic, but it is a ridiculous standard for adults discussing politics.
Insisting that we make lemonade out of every lemon might make us feel good, but it also makes us act like idiots.
You can't guide a system by positive feedback. It oscillates out of control.
You can't learn by your mistakes if you don't recognize them as mistakes.
Some of the most destructive ideas I have read here on the DP are the ones that worded in a "positive" manner.
"Hey guys, I've got a GREAT idea! Let's all go and jump off of that cliff. Think what a beautiful view we'll have on the way down!"
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The Virtual Conspiracy
OMG I LOVE IT!
The "Home on the Range Fallacy", that's awesome!
Check out the Laissez-Faire Journal at LFJournal.com
"The State is a gang of thieves writ large." - Murray Rothbard
It depends on your market for that product
"If I wanted people to buy a product from me, would I want them to know I was open for business, or would I want to promote a rumor that said I was out of business?"
If your selling your product to the general public, you are correct, but if you have a highly specialized or proprietary product, maybe not. By focusing on the delegates and not the general populace RP has a select market. The general voter will never see the Jack Hunter nor the Doug Wead interview, the RP delegates will. This may be a very smart strategy given the fact spending limited resources chasing a popular vote doesn't count anyway. The tactic will also disarm the establishment Romney supporters at the conventions.
Thank you Josh!
Thanks for a rational response to the weirdness that was yesterday. I just sent this question in an email to Doug Wead. We shall see if it garners a reply:
I'm curious if the past tense wording of Paul's message to supporters yesterday was intentionally meant to get the MSM to announce Paul's hanging it up or if it was just carelessly worded in the past tense and the campaign wasn't actually looking for that outcome by the MSM? If the campaign didn't want headlines stating "Paul quits" couldn't the message have been worded in the present tense and got the same points across? Like this:
(changes in bold)
I am humbled by the supporters who are working so hard and sacrificing so much for our 2012 Presidential campaign. And I am so proud of what we are accomplishing. We will not stop until we have restored what once made America the greatest country in human history.
This campaign is fighting hard and winning electoral success that the talking heads and pundits never thought possible. But, this campaign is also about more than just the 2012 election. It is part of a quest I began 40 years ago and that so many are joining. It is about the campaign for Liberty, which is taking a tremendous leap forward in this election and will continue growing stronger in the future until we finally win.
Our campaign is continuing to work in the state convention process. We are taking leadership positions, winning delegates, and we are on track to carry a strong message to the Republican National Convention that Liberty is the way of the future.
Moving forward, we will no longer spend resources campaigning with TV and news ads for primaries in states that have not yet voted. Doing so with any hope of success in these beauty contests would take many tens of millions of dollars we simply do not have. I encourage all supporters of Liberty to make sure you get to the polls and make your voices heard, particularly in the local, state, and Congressional elections, where so many defenders of Freedom are fighting and need your support.
I hope all supporters of Liberty remain deeply involved - become delegates, win office, and take leadership positions. I am right there with you. In the coming days, my campaign leadership will lay out to you our delegate strategy and what you can do to help, so please stay tuned.
For Liberty,
Ron Paul
Doug Wead's reply
To this emailed question I asked (below) Wead replied: "I am sorry, I am not sure I know the answer"
Excellent post!
This is a no-brainer. You were right to email this. You have my vote to author any future press releases.
If the campaign does not pay attention to "little" details like this, they risk sabotaging much of our hard work.
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The Virtual Conspiracy