New ACTUAL Delegate Count MapSubmitted by ugamarkj on Tue, 05/15/2012 - 07:00
IF YOU HAVE CRITICISM, PLEASE MAKE IT PRODUCTIVE BY TELLING ME WHAT TO FIX.
After really struggling with the actual delegate count I decided to make my own map. I think this is an improvement over the "Real 2012 Republican Delegate Count" and allows for more transparency. I used Wikipedia's secured numbers as a base then modified them based on posts at the Daily Paul. My thought is to have 2 scenarios: (1) What the delegates look like under the state binding rules, and (2) what the count looks like with unbound delegates.
This is a first round pass and I'd be happy to make changes based on your feedback and ground level knowledge. For the unbound scenario, I did not remove any Mitt Romney or Ron Paul "secured" delegates because I wasn't sure if they would switch sides. I moved all the Newt and Rick delegates to "unknown".
I also think I may add an "upcoming state conventions" section to show the dates of the next 5 conventions.
There are two versions:
* Portrait (good for embedding in blogs via code in the share link at bottom left of visualization): http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/TheACTUALRepublicanD...
* Landscape: http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/DZS5QDNSP
UPDATE #1: Cut the delegates in half for the following states due to holding early primaries: Florida, Arizona, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan.
UPDATE #2: Had to reverse update #1 because my original numbers were correct. Florida is down from 99, Arizona down from 58, New Hampshire down from 23, South Carolina down from 50, and Michigan down from 59.
UPDATE #3: Added a list of upcomming final events and added a category for states that have final results, but are still unclear based on unknown delegate preferences.
UPDATE #4: Added results from binding primary states and moved a bunch of Mitt Romney delegates to the "unknown" category in the unbound scenario.
UPDATE #5: Updates to unbound scenarios for New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Oklahoma. I also tried to make the scenario drop down easier to see. I kept the default as "bound" because my primary audience is Paul supporters and my intent is to help delegates formulate their strategy. If Romney gets to 1,144 bound delegates, then the choice to invoke rule 38 is obvious. If that happens, I'll change the default to the unbound scenario.
UPDATE #6: Added results from May 19 conventions: Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Vermont.
UPDATE #7: Added primary results for Texas, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Switched the default to unbound since the media is declaring Romney the winner (even though my binding count still doesn't get Romney to 1,144).
UPDATE #8: Added results from California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, Missouri, Washington, North Carolina, and Louisiana.
UPDATE #9: Added results from Arkansas, Iowa, New Mexico, Indiana, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Texas and Kentucky.