Delegate Strategy Contradicts Itself With Mathematical Impossibilty
Submitted by rpforever85 on Tue, 05/15/2012 - 12:24None of the recent news has caused me much concern or confusion, but the latest e-mail by Benton has legitimately confused me, and I'd like for the Official campaign to clarify...
The e-mail remarks...
We will head to Tampa with a solid group of delegates. Several hundred will be bound to Dr. Paul, and several hundred more, although bound to Governor Romney or other candidates, will be Ron Paul supporters.
This is perfectly in line with what we've been seeing and hearing from district and state conventions across the country.
But the very next statement says...
Unfortunately, barring something very unforeseen, our delegate total will not be strong enough to win the nomination. Governor Romney is now within 200 delegates of securing the party’s nod. However, our delegates can still make a major impact at the National Convention and beyond.
That is mathematically impossible.
In the first instance, the campaign insists that we already have several hundreds of delegates (or certainly will by the time Tampa rolls around). But then it says that Romney is only 200 away from the nomination.
If the latter is correct, then that would infer that we only have < 100 delegates thus far, as the AP and other mainstream media sources report. If our delegate numbers are any greater than that (as we assume they are), then Romney is no where near the nomination just yet. He would assuredly have several hundreds of delegates more to gain. Certainly more than just 200.
So I'm not sure exactly what the campaign is saying. Can we not win the nomination if we have a majority of delegates? And if Romney is so close to clinching the 1,144 delegates needed, where does the campaign expect the remaining "hundreds" for us to secure to come from?
Please clarify.
It's simple.
Certain high-level national campaign people pretended they came up with the delegate strategy.
THEY DIDNT. WE DID.
It was ALWAYS ours. They just played it up for PR - which is fine and to be expected.
We were TOO successful for them.
Connect the dots with that premise and it will make sense to you.
It's fairly simple folks
He's referring to the AP numbers where Romney has more than 900 delegates. Of course, WE know that those numbers are made up, so this seems to be spin to me. And we can surmise that it must be spin, since it seems Doug Wead said something similar in an interview somewhere. In that interview he additionally stated that the reason we were hanging on, was because of Rand Paul in 2016. And I've seen enough of his interviews that Doug Wead doesn't think this way.
Bottomline, it's a concerted spin effort in order to put the campaign in a good light towards THE OUTSIDE WORLD. No need to pay attention to it ourselves.
Dichotomy
But that's the point...
The e-mail is a dichotomy of statements which simply cannot coexist together.
-In the first instance, they say we have (or will have) hundreds and hundreds of delegates.
-Immediately following that, they use AP numbers to show that Romney has just about clinched the nomination.
These are completely contradictory statements.
Which should give you the hint
that this is spin. You see, WE can do math and see that this is contradictory. The RP campaign must know it even better than us. But the mainstream media will swallow this whole without even questioning it.
I have to wonder...
I have to wonder what the point of it all is?
Taking advantage of a sizable delegate lead has always been expected. Using our influence for the platform, as well as our organizational efforts in the states is to be assumed.
But has Dr. Paul honestly given up on the nomination?
I know he is a gentlemen, but I honestly hope he isn't viewing a nomination grab with our delegate power as "unfair" or "inappropriate" or whatever.
No,
It should be fairly obvious that he has not given up. Why? Because both Benton and Wead are basing their reasoning on the AP's numbers. And they KNOW that those numbers are bogus.
All this is, is an attempt to chummy up to the RNC and make themselves seem less of a threat. Just look at all their moves up till now:
1. the RNC had permission to ignore rule 11
2. RP stating he didn't want to disrupt the convention
3. RP stating he was worried about supporters being rude
4. Doug Wead's comment a day later about supporters hanging on for Rand Paul in 2016
Rule 11 would have never amounted to anything. Sacrificing it is a good way to make the RNC trust us. Trying to kill the rumor that we are trying to take over the convention is also a means to protect us from RNC interference. Doug Wead's comment is a clear attempt to make the RNC misunderstand our true intentions. If they ever understood what we really wanted, they would sweat bullets and their attempts to stop us would magnify tenfold.
there isn't a contradiction
He's not saying that Ron Paul currently has that many delegates - just that over the long haul he can get several hundred. The campaign knows that Ron Paul has fewer than 100 bound delegates currently, has maybe 50 supporters as unbound delegates, and has under 50 supporters as delegates bound to other candidates. They see the states coming up and realize that Romney is going to win very large numbers of delegates. He's going to get over 200 on June 5th alone (and there are no state conventions for CA, NJ, and SD for Paul supporters to take those spots). They see that there is no path to get the nomination or to stop Romney, and they are no longer going after the nomination. They still want supporters to work hard to get as many delegate spots as possible, but they have been quite clear these past 2 days that they have eliminated the Republican nomination as a goal.
let's not forget there are 1144*2 delegates available
2288; though only half is enough to secure the nomination.
"You underestimate the character of man." | "So be off now, and set about it."
Yep
I absolutely agree with you here. We have done nothing but win, win, win. And now Jesse says it is not enough. what???? This makes no sense.
And then some are saying Paul is concerned about niceties?
Many of us believe this is our last shot at peaceful revolution. Going in they had to know that it was going to get really ugly if we started to win.
What has changed? This email is seriously confusing. The campaign needs to clarify