Why Romney won't win the nomination! (The Fight Has ONLY Begun!)
Submitted by FreedomLover2012 on Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:30Looking at the electoral map from almost every single state there is almost absolutely no way for a possible victory for Romney
Just from a few mainly accurate predictions:
Romney loses by 62 electoral votes http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php
Romney down by 108 electoral votes
http://race42012.com/2012-electoral-college-projection/
Romney down by 114 electoral votes
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-ele...
Now if Republican's realize this... We can win at Tampa. As i am a Romney delegate myself i will be abstaining and voting for the good Dr. and know many who are doing the same and acting as if they are for Romney. This is happening across the country. I cannot give any more information than that.. But, i can tell you now our plan is working and has worked.
Now i know the new's isn't reporting this, because they know obama will win if running against mitt romney, but we need to spread these graphs with EVERYONE, showing Romney cannot and will not beat obama if elected. Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate that can beat obama, he can win the young vote in a majority, he can win part of the democrat vote, and the independent vote in a majority. With a die hard, grassroots support which Romney doesn't have and will never have. And which obama wishes to gain, but will never get. This is our election and we can win at Tampa! KEEP FIGHTING! WE WILL OVERCOME! Please SHARE THIS and the graph's to facebook, twitter, etc! AND Let people see for themselves! This fight as only begun,
For Liberty!
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Give it up - Romney has long gotten the nomination.
and Paul has never contested Romney and never will. he has only contested other conservatives.
jj
I've said before that the
I've said before that the only way I'd ever vote for Romney is if:
A) He makes Ron VP, and
B) Promises to shoot himself in his first month in office. First week would be better, but I'm a patient man.
Other than that, Mittens can kiss my freedom loving backside.
Furthermore, I see no reason to "Give it Up." Whether Paul wins or not, the struggle will continue.
“Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.” William Pitt
HAHA
Very well said! And I too will agree to vote Romney only if this is the case! ;)
As long as you are a republican, you suport Romney
and it doesn't matter if you vote for him or not. Republican means Romney-Bush-Cheney. They rule, not you.
You think you prove yourself by saying you won't vote for romney, but as i said, it doesn't matter if you vote for him or not, as long as you are republican, you are under his wing.
jj
OMG----I can tell the infectious enthusiasm of the RON PAUL
CAMPAIGN FOR LIBERTY is taking over your mind...it's a lot more exciting over here than at ROMNEYPATHETICDEADCENTRAL, if you are HERE!!!
WELCOME!
SequoiaTrees4RonPaul
Just remember...
that "abstaining" in the sense you mean it is not NOT voting. It is voting "Present". Don't forget that the RNC is governed by the rules of the House of Representatives.
But I'm with you--I think there will be a large "Presence" at the RNC!
For though you think you know the thing, you have no certainty, until you try. -Sophocles
Romney Who?
Where is Romney BTW? That's a rhetorical question.... ;)
Look up your state, county,
Look up your state, county, and district bylaws about the consequences of abstaining before you do so. Just so you can know what to expect in retaliation.
The Revolution Continues..
If people want to remain in their new chair positions and want
to run for office in the future and be a delegate again with GOP, those people should go by the rules. Everyone else vote for Paul on first ballot. This is what I'm gathering. Are my observations wrong in this?
i will never
i will never ever vote for willard(white rhino)romney i would rather obama gets in,oh wait he will if that knucklehead romney is the nom,to all the romney lovers you wont win!i promise not with out us.
freedom420
Phuck Romney!
.
Is this disdain?
I wonder if this is the kind of disdain for Romney that the Paul campaign fears will ruin the campaign for liberty?
"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."
Minarchism
track
Willard brought it on himself.
Who he is (individual mandate, cap and trade in Mass., flip flop, misspoke, destroying lives for profit at Bain Capitol, supports NDAA, supports continued unconstitutional wars, what he's done to those who oppose him especially in this nomination process, the list goes on). What's not to disdain?
Romney
can not and will not win period!WHY????
Even his own people think he can not win!
Morning Joe 'No One' In GOP Establishment Thinks Romney Will Beat Obama NewsBusters.org.mp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSK2eK4gDnU
Wrong
"Looking at the electoral map from almost every single state there is almost absolutely no way for a possible victory for Romney"
That is pure delusion.
....
Here is the reality.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-HS.phtml
According to these figures, Romney currently has 970 delegates.
Let us go through these figures, correct any errors, and see where we end up with Romney's delegate count.
IA: The listed figures for IA are still just the original media estimates based on the popular vote. This estimate gives Romney 6 delegates. Let's assume for the sake of argument that we deny Romney all delegates in IA, and subtract 6 from his total.
That brings Romney down to 964 delegates.
PA: There are 72 delegates from PA listed as uncommitted which have NOT been counted toward Romney total. Technically, they are uncommitted, but there is every indication that they are Romney people who have simply not come forward to declare themselves as such. I'm from PA. We had a list of all Paul delegates throughout the State. Only five of them won. These 72 uncommitted delegates are definitely not Paul delegates. I expect they are all Romney, but maybe some are Santorum, so to be safe let's not count any of them towards Romney's total.
So Romney is still at 964 by our count.
Now, I've been following every State, and I do not see any other errors in the figures. If you see any errors, where you know the number cited is incorrect, then please comment and correct the error.
But for now, I'll go ahead using the 964 number we have so far and make some projections.
TX and CA combined have 327 delegates at stake. I project that Romney wins 90% of the delegates from TX and CA (90% x 327 = 294), or 294 delegates.
964 + 294 = 1258
Other remaining States include: UT(40), NM(23), NJ(50), NE(35), MT(26), KY(45), SD(28) and AR(36).
UT and NJ are winner-take all primaries.
AR, KY, SD and NM are proportional primaries.
NE and MT are caucuses.
Now let's grant Paul 100% of the delegates from the caucuses in NE and MT.
I project Romney will win UT and NJ, adding 90 to his count, for a total (90+1258 = 1348) of 1348.
I project that Romney will win AR, KY, SD and NM. Even though the winner will actually take much more than 50%, let's be conservative and say Romney only takes 50% of the delegates (50% x 132 = 52), bringing his total to (1348 + 52 = 1400) 1400.
Conclusion: As of right now, Romney has 964 delegates*, and using very conservative projections, he will have 1400 delegates by the National Convention at the end of August.
*This number may contain minor errors, which I encourage you to find and correct. However, it also does not give Romney 72 delegates from PA, which are almost certainly his delegates. It also does not include any delegates which Romney may win from upcoming State Conventions. It also does not include many "superdelegates" who have not pledged, but who are party hacks and will almost certainly vote Romney. Therefore, if anything, I would say that 964 is a low estimate.
Additionally, your numbers are still projections.
The hard delegate count is thus:
The references cited there are:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Del.phtml
Nonsense
Do you understand how primaries/caucuses work?
There are MANY States that have ALREADY voted where ALL delegates (other than the 3 super-delegates) are bound by the popular vote. For example, FL, SC, MI, NY, DE, IL, IN, KS, CT, AL, MD, GA...need I continue?
Some of these States have not held State Conventions yet, that is true, but the State conventions do NOT determine who gets the delegates, the popular vote does, and that already happened.
The figures I cited take into account all the delegates bound by popular vote in States that have already voted, as well as all delegates awarded thus far in caucuses. It does not include delegates that have yet to be awarded at State Conventions is caucuses that are still ongoing: e.g. LA, IA, MN.
It isn't nonsense - we are in dispute about the binding.
For now, the only thing I'll concede that counts is actual delegates chosen.
We'll save binding rules for Tampa.
Until then, it really isn't possible to know if those binding rules will stick or be challenged.
Thus what matters in the end, is who are the actual delegates and whom do they support?
So far, Paul is in the lead there.
Repeating it over and over does not make it true
Use the green papers to read about the rules governing how delegates are bound in each State. If you don't believe the green papers, then go the State party websites and view the rules for yourself.
Again, you cannot "save binding rules for Tampa." That is not how it works. You have no reason to believe that's how it works. All the claims that delegates are unbound have been thoroughly disproven. They are now bound by State rules, they will be thus bound at Tampa.
Isn't Dr. Paul fantastic?
You must be new around here!! So glad you're here.
We appreciate your learning about Ron Paul and the CAMPAIGN FOR LIBERTY.
SequoiaTrees4RonPaul
Like I said, we are in dispute about the enforcement of those
binding rules.
As I noted in the other thread we are talking on, It IS up to the delegates in Tampa. They control everything. Until they attempt to unbind themselves, we won't know if they will actually do it or succeed. Until they otherwise attempt to abstain or even vote Ron Paul directly, we won't know if they will be challenged, or succeed.
They make their own rules, and they govern their own challenges.
The delegates control the whole process once it starts. They even credential themselves technically. They are the highest authority in the party once they are seated.
If everything goes according to the past, yes, the binding rules will stick, not because they are there, but because the convention decided not to challenge those rules or change them.
Thus, until the convention happens, it is impossible to know what will happen with the binding issue.
All that matters right now, is we are getting elected to majorities on the way to the convention. If we control the process, we can change the rules. We can challenge the rules and we can rule on the challenges. That's how all of this works.
Since we ARE winning the delegate battle as far as actual chosen delegates goes, that is the most important factor right now.
If we get a majority, and by how much, will determine what transpires in Tampa.
I'm at a loss...
Why do these numbers differ so much? http://thereal2012delegatecount.com/
Virginia: Paul 15, Romney 1 (CD delegates) rest TBD May 19th.
It's because those numbers are nonsense...
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/VA-R
If a person wins 50%+ of the vote in the VA primary, they get all 13 of the at-large delegates. Romney got all of those. Then there are 3 delegates awarded to the winner of each Congressional District (CD). Romney won all of them but one. Hence Romney got 43 delegates, Paul got 3, and the 3 superdelegates remain (they are party hacks, and will likely vote Romney).
That entire website is nonsense. Note how they don't award any delegates in FL, NY, PA, MI, IN, GA, SC...just to name a few? The delegates for those States have ALL already been allocated. They are bound by popular votes that ALREADY HAPPENED. Done deal. The State Conventions coming up do NOT determine who the delegates are bound to. All the caucuses in these primary States do is determine WHO the delegates are, they are STILL ALL bound by the popular votes.
You are confusing the election with the nomination. The OP is
about the election presuming he gets the nomination.
Thus, your entire reply was off topic and entirely pointless.
You are busted! This little post of yours just outed you as
a full fledged Romney supporter. Good luck with all that!
~Your perception becomes your reality~
I was just reading up..
On some of the comments you have Been posting.. And my gosh do you spew out the most negative garbage. My friend trust me that gets you no where. Either we win this election for freedom. Or we will loose our country. And I'm going to fight all the way.. For my kids, my family, and freinds... This country means way to much to me to just sit by passively and let this happen. If we beleive in ourselves and we fight, we CAN win!
What you call negative garbage...
...rational individuals call "reality."
Knowledge about reality is useful. Delusions are harmful.
No, it's negative garbage because it is based on the same flawed
projections and not on reality.
The reality is that Paul is currently in the lead with those delegates actually finalized.
Then maybe you could point out these flaws?
If there are errors, correct them. Show us which delegate numbers for which States are incorrect. If it is so obvious that the figures I cited are wrong, it should be easy to disprove them, no?
"Paul is currently in the lead with those delegates actually finalized."
And you base this claim on what evidence?
I posted it in the other thread you spammed this same comment on
It's based on who the actual delegates support and leaving the issue of binding for Tampa to decide.