What is the "magic number" of stealth delegates?Submitted by bimmylee on Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:32
What do you think is the magic number of "stealth delegates" (Romney delegates that will vote RP) we need in order to absolutely beyond-a-shadow-of-a-doubt guarantee Ron Paul's GOP nomination?
My personal estimation: about 500 stealth delegates. I got this number by taking RCP's current Romney delegate count of 989 and then adding all possible delegates from every remaining contest to Romney's column, which should come out to 1,599 delegates. So if 500 of those delegates are RP supporters, Romney misses the mark.
Now, I realize this estimate is extremely simplified; it also doesn't take into account any Gingrich or Santorum delegates that may go for Romney. The goal is just to estimate a delegate threshold that will have a 100% likelihood of winning Ron the nomination. So I threw one out there out of curiosity.