4 votes

Is it currently almost impossible for Romney to win the nomination?

Maybe someone can help clarify this for me.

As I understand, Romney has 755 delegates to Paul's 229 according to TheReal2012DelegateCount.com which means Romney needs to get another 389 delegates out of the remaining 586, or 2/3 of the delegates, which would be difficult considering strong Paul grassroots support in Texas and California.

Did I get some numbers wrong?

Edit: Several have informed me that I do indeed have my numbers wrong, making the real count not 755 to 229 as TheReal2012DelegateCount.com says. It would mean that Romney has 928 to Paul's 229. In that case Romney needs only 216 more out of the remaining 413, or roughly half, in order for him to be able to say he has the 1,144 needed to guarantee a win. If that's the case, then getting 50% of the remaining delegates is really going to be a nail-biter! It seems to me that if Romney isn't nominated on the first round, Paul should win a very easy second or third ballot. Does this all sound right? Because if it is, then it means that we're currently looking at a photo finish race, by the numbers!

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If Ron Paul speaks at the

If Ron Paul speaks at the Convention, minds will be influenced like they were during the Nevada State Convention

Something extraordinary has to happen for Romney to lose nom

Ron Paul himself has conceded that at best he will have the support of maybe 500 delegates, the rest going to Romney.

Something quite extraordinary would have to happen for Romney to lose the nomination, and even if that happened, it's much more likely that the neocon majority delegates would select someone other than Ron Paul instead of Romney.

But huge inroads have been made, and we need to maximize what we've done.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

Something extraorinary already did happen

in Nv. La, Ok and Maine.
Something less than extraordinary happened in Wa, Mo and South Dakota.

Keep with it. Keep FIGHTING.
Romney hasn't won yet. And he knows it.
But it will take something extraordinary.
Are u in it to win it or a wuss?

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

Are you saying

that something extraordinary can't happen?
Because I say it can.

And I have always been a realist.
Not a mindless optimist like Matt Larson.

And I have never sold out like Jesse Benton.

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

The TheReal2012DelegateCount.com

has too many errors in it to list them all.

The other posts about State Conventions overstate the number of delegates that can be affected (by inserting stealth delegates or otherwise).
A few of the delegates in those numbers have been selected and named already - lots haven't.
Most include the superdelegates and they are almost 100% for Romney.
Some are dependent on the state's republican committee - we have little chance there in most cases.

Texas is all up for grabs - 152 out of 155 - we will never get the establishment superdelegates - but everything else up for grabs - if we have enough people attending.

Texas state convention starts tomorow but we have not being doing well lately after stunning results in places like Nv, La, Me, Ok.
We have not done well in persuading non Romney delegates to State Conventions to support Ron Paul, rather than Romney (recently).

It was very disappointing to hear that a couple of recent state conventions - alternates and others did not show up and that might have made a HUGE difference to the outcome if they had - Wa and Mo.

SHOW UP ppl - show up.
Keep fighting.

We need to prepare campaign material for Tampa.
We need to show that Romney will get slaughtered and GOP candidates will get beaten at national and state when they otherwise might win with a non Romney candidate.

We need to point out the ammo Obama will use after Tampa, when Romney is confirmed.
Obama will not show his hand until after Tampa - he knows he will easily beat Romney, but might have trouble against another Republican nominee. Obama has been expecting Romney for a year now at least.

We need to show ordinary GOP that they will be committing political suicide if they nominate Romney. Because that is about what it will be.

We need to show that Europe is collapsing under its mountainous debts and the US will soon follow if Romney is nominated.
Romney will cause the loss of the US Dollar's Reserve Status and with that, economic collapse. if Romney is nominated 2016/17 will be too late to fix things. It is now or never. Even Ron Paul does not seem to realise this.
US banks will need another bailout - the banks are donating to Romney. This bailout would need to be much larger than the last (in 2008) this financial crisis is MUCH larger than 2008.

We need to show that Romney has never created any jobs, whilst at Bain or as Ma governor.

Most of Romneys support is anyone but Obama.
But anyone but Obama is not Romney - because he cannot win.
Even Karl Rove's electoral college map says so. See my blog.

There are some deep stealth Ron Paul delegates - Doug Wead seemed to think it was about 80, but only up to about 30 Romney stealth people - 50 plus for Santo /Gingrich.
My numbers do not take account of this. There is no other evidence to back it up and we will only find out at the convention in Tampa.

KEEP FIGHTING.
I don't care if Ron Paul himself gives up.
I will NOT give up.
But I will be realistic.
We have a massive job ahead of us - are you still in it to win it?

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

iz almost impossible for him

iz almost impossible for him to lose the nomination

With the updated information from this thread

I think it's more accurate to say that the race is currently almost tied. This is a funny thing, considering that everyone seems to be estimating either a huge lead for Romney or a huge lead for Paul, but I think that it really is a nearly tied race now.

Michael Nystrom's fists can punch through FUD.

how would you conclude that?

What information in the thread makes it seem like it could be anywhere close to tied?

i wish it were close and it

i wish it were close and it would be if santorum and gingrich hadn't dropped out but they did and it completely changed the game

14 States, 28% of America

June 9 Illinois 69 delegates

June 9 Indiana 46

June 9 Kentucky 45

June 9 Texas 155

June 10 Pennsylavania 72

June 16 Virginia 49

June 16 Montana 26

June 16 New Mexico 23

June 16 Iowa 28

June 19 Massachusetts 41

June 23 Idaho 32

June 23 Oregon 28

June 23 Arkansas 36

July 14 Nebraska 35

I count 685, but I think you're still correct.

Romney needs about 389 more delegate...about 57%

If Romney can't win the majority of delegates in Arizona, Nevada, and Maine - he can't win 57% of the remaining delegates in the states above.

Never be afraid to ask simple questions.

if you're starting with the 755 number....

then add in the 169 from California, 50 from New Jersey, and 25 from South Dakota that Romney won yesterday (and the flesh and blood delegates have already been chosen there so these are real numbers and not fantasy projections). That gets him to 999.

In Illinois, Romney already has 42. So he's up to 1041.

In Kentucky, he already has 17. That makes 1058.

In Pennsylvania, he already has at least 27. So now he's at 1085.

In Massachusetts, he already has 11, while that site says 3. That makes 1093.

In Wisconsin, he has 33, while that site says 0. We're up to 1126.

Then in Florida he has all 50, while that site for some reason says they haven't been selected. That gets us to 1176.

And I'm guessing he doesn't get completely shut out in the upcoming conventions, either.

Aren't you counting delegates

that have not been voted for in most of those states?

no

All the ones I listed have already been picked. The final numbers will be even higher for Romney since some in the states still haven't been picked and many are likely to go to him. But these are the bare minimums for these states.

I think you read something wrong

because the way I see it so far Ron Paul will not get one delegate from CA as you have to get a majority of the votes in a county to pick up the 3 delegates you have pre-selected.

If I missed something on the allocation please correct me.

And it's impossible for Romney to win if he were to actually get the nomination because all the polling and the voices spoken here confirm that at least 75%+ of Paul supporters will never vote for Romney and that effectively puts him right into the losers bracket against Obama.

November 6th 2012 I voted for Dr.Ron Paul
"We must remember, elections are short-term efforts. Revolutions are long-term projects." ~ Ron Paul

Are CA delegates automatically filled?

I thought California was one of our best chances for a grassroots coup at the state convention level. Hmm, if that's the case, then it would change the numbers a bit, and Romney would have to get only a sizeable minority (roughly 1/3?) of the remaining delegates.

But it still means that denying the first-round 1,144 is still way within our reach, even if the GOP attempts to force pledged votes against their own rules.

Michael Nystrom's fists can punch through FUD.

Yes.

There is no state convention in California.

Each campaign pre-selected three people to be their delegates in each Congressional District and ten people to be their at-large delegates.

Since Romney won all Congressional Districts and the statewide vote, his slate of delegates will go to the National Convention.

Thanks for the update

I've edited my original post. Still gives us a lot of hope! (=

Michael Nystrom's fists can punch through FUD.

I Don't Know About That

But I do know it is currently impossible for me to give a shit whteher he does or doesn't. If Ron doesn't get it, we're screwed.

Ron Paul or bust

My response to my friends who say, "Ron Paul can't win," is "We have to work hard to make sure he does."

But I can also say, with all I've seen in this revolution, that if he doesn't win the 2012 Republican nomination for POTUS, we have still planted the seeds for an extreme makeover of the country in very meaningful ways.

We'll be okay. (-: Our hard work IS paying off.

Michael Nystrom's fists can punch through FUD.

locale?

Benjamin, I notice you have a Dutch name. Are you from western Michigan? I teach at a Dutch Reformed school.

My family is from there

I was born in Iowa City, IA. However, Guy Vander Jagt was a relative. My grandfather is from Ypsilanti. (-:

Michael Nystrom's fists can punch through FUD.

locale?

Benjamin, I notice you have a Dutch name. Are you from western Michigan? I teach at a Dutch Reformed school.

Mistaken assumption

Romney will receive all of the delegates from Texas and California. California was winner-take-all by congressional district plus some for the statewide win. Romney carried the state and every congressional district. Texas uses a caucus system to choose delegates, but they will be apportioned based on the primary results. The delegates--even if they're Paul supporters--will all be bound to vote for Romney.

Unfortunately, your question is backwards. It's currently almost impossible for Romney to LOSE the nomination.

Don't think so

I'm pretty sure that that was supposed to be the case in all of the other states where Paul has won delegates after losing the primary.

But you're not the only one to say that California will not award any to Paul. I will watch and wait. I'm very curious.

Michael Nystrom's fists can punch through FUD.

California is different

There's just no process in place for Paul supporters to become delegates unless they have faked the Romney campaign out and become one of Romney's hand-picked delegates. The delegates chosen by the Romney campaign are now the official delegates from CA in Tampa.

In 08, didn't we mail DVD's to delegates

If I remember correctly, we had a DVD specifically made to mail out to the delegates before the national convention. Is that going on this time?

Michael Nystrom's fists can punch through FUD.

Hmmm....

Yes he is a longshot, but I believe you are dreadfully mistaken in so many of your assumptions about how this is going to go down. Paul supporters stand a very good shot at carrying Texas across the board, but they have to work hard. So far, they've faced little opposition. While the letter that the TX GOP sent out may at first have sounded like an attempt at keeping out Paul delegates by changing the rules, allowing later comes in, it really comes down to finding 310 people who want to be primaries and alternates. They JUST down have enough good-ol-boys to fill it up.

Federal law trumps RNC and state GOP rules any day, and yes, they do apply to conventions as stated within. No one can make them cast a first round vote for Romney. The GOP realizes that the jig is up, and that's why they are fighting so hard at the state conventions.

Pretty sure this is true

It also kind of makes my initial post rather meaningless. But because I expect the RNC to treat the rules with the same level of respect that they have in state contests, I would love it if it were a "traditional" brokered convention.

Michael Nystrom's fists can punch through FUD.

AHhahaaha

Oh man I am flattered with people like you, 5,6, users have been observing you bud, kindly leave here

Mistaken tripe

Sorry, but that doesn't work here.

Back to rMoney central, and the drawing board.