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What New Hampshire Results Mean for Ron Paul

An analysis of the McCain victory in New Hampshire and what the results mean for the candidacy of Dr. Ron Paul.by Jake Morphonios (Libertarian)

In the 2000 presidential election cycle I worked for Steve Forbes as the regional campaign manager for North Carolina. I escorted Mr. Forbes to the South Carolina Republican Debate and had the opportunity to meet John McCain outside in a secure area as he was being interviewed on his Straight Talk Express campaign bus. I paid close attention to McCain throughout the election both before and after Mr. Forbes dropped out of the contest. I culled a few facts from that time period that are still relevant today.

McCain is a short man, 5’ 7" to be exact. Okay. That’s not important. However, the fact that McCain gets easily peeved is important. Once McCain takes a stance, even when he knows he is wrong, his ego will not allow him to back down when challenged. I observed this in a Larry King Live interview between McCain, Bush and Keyes. McCain was taken to task for a series of negative attack ads and became quite terse in defense of his actions. This projection of ego didn’t go unnoticed by voters. Presently, McCain is in a position of having taken some very unpopular positions on subjects such as campaign finance reform and immigration. When challenged on these issued McCain, predictably, will return to sanctimonious posturing and sink his campaign once again.

It should be remembered that as of a month ago, popular wisdom said that the McCain run was over. His campaign structure saw a rash of firings and resignations. He is essentially broke. While McCain is out there today trumpeting himself as the new "comeback kid", he knows that this isn’t true. McCain knew that he would carry New Hampshire without having to do much to secure the victory. The demographics of New Hampshire are confusing to many political analysts because of the high number of "undeclared" voters, often incorrectly dubbed "independents". New Hampshire voters in 2000 helped McCain wallop George W. Bush with a 19 point spread victory. Undeclared and Independent are two different things. New Hampshire typically votes just like any other state. In 2000 they voted for McCain because of his strong military credentials. In 2008, exit polls again demonstrate that nearly 50% of McCain voters chose him specifically because of his firm pro-war stance. A McCain victory in New Hampshire was a foregone conclusion. Ron Paul supporters were incorrect in their estimation that New Hampshire was inordinately favorable for a Ron Paul surprise.

Yet, the idea that "Mac is back" is a false hope for McCain supporters. McCain does not enjoy wide popularity in most other states. He will fare well, perhaps even winning Michigan and South Carolina. But Mitt Romney remains the man to beat. McCain’s funding is essentially spent and will not likely continue well past Super Tuesday. The only variable that may alter this eventuality is the media. Should the media turn McCain into their new star and keep him in the spotlight to the exclusion of most other candidates between now and Super Tuesday, McCain may be able to keep his campaign alive.

Enter Ron Paul.

With the victory of McCain nearly guaranteed, we need to analyze the remaining race statistics. Ron Paul spanked Fred Thompson, placing well ahead of Thompson who placed third in Iowa. Next, Paul placed less than 1 per percentage point away from Rudy Guiliani. Rudolph’s camp knew he couldn’t win, so they used the effective strategy of downplaying his loss by claiming that the candidate didn’t make any real effort in New Hampshire. The media, however, today exposed some interesting facts about Guiliani’s efforts in New Hampshire. Guiliani not only made more campaign appearances in New Hampshire than any other candidate but he spent more money in the state than all over candidates except for Mitt Romney. That Ron Paul virtually tied Guiliani is an incredible political feat and the Paulites of New Hampshire should be wildly applauded. Had it not been for Paul activists, the candidate would have finished around Hunter’s 1%.

Ron Paul trailed the third place winner, Mike Huckabee, by only 3 percentage points! That is extremely significant. Paul is not out of the race. Focusing on "5th place" finishes only brings people down. This strategist chooses not to emphasize which spot Ron Paul is finishing in, but instead focuses on how well he is doing in the race compared to other candidates. Dr. Paul and his supporters are making history. He has staying power. Ron Paul’s message of personal liberty and constitutional government is taking hold. Now is not the time to shrink from the battle. This is a time of celebration over our incredible success. We are truly changing the political debate. Ron Paul’s ideas are now being "stolen" by other candidates. That is not a bad thing. When other candidates are compelled to change their positions to Ron Paul’s it means that we are having great success.

Our campaign is very much alive and energized. We are accomplishing our goals. More fighting is needed. Let us roll up our sleeves and get back to work for our families, for our nation and for our champion of freedom, Ron Paul.

What New Hampshire Results Mean for Ron Paul
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