5 votes

Lets play the What If game. How 1% could have changed the entire 2012 Presidential race

I decided to play the what if game just to torture myself. Granted, we Paul supporter have FAR surpassed what any doubters ever thought we could accomplish. We totally changed the game and have a foot hold on the entire republican party which can only grow since we have the monopoly on the young vote. Personally though, I'm not satisfied. We could have, no, SHOULD have done better. So recently I started to day dream and here's what went through my head.

I am a total believer that the GOP fixed the popular voting results, but since those are the only numbers I have I decided to use those to base my little theory on. I'm from IL and our primary's (under counted) results were 87,044 or 9.32% of the popular vote. RP's strategy has always been amassing delegates. In some states we've come out on top, in others, aside from the establishment's dirty tricks, we just didn't have the numbers. But hypothetically, if the popular vote in IL was correct, what percentage of that vote did we need to turn out to the state convention for us to win?

Here's a little back story on IL. Our convention had a record turn out at around 1250 total delegates this year. In '08 there were around 700+. The Romney campaign was in full force trying to get everyone to turn out. The Paul people just didn't have the numbers this year. In '08 we had about 45 delegates which represented about 6% of the total delegation. This year however we had between 225-230 which represented around 18% of the total delegation. Of course we would have had a bunch more if the GOP didn't refuse to seat a good number of our delegates based on nothing more than who they supported. At the same time, only half of the Paul supporters (that I know of) in my son's county even bothered to show up. So this got me thinking. Even though we did 3x better this election cycle despite what we were up against, how many people could we realistically expected to show up?

Even with the dedication of Paul supporters, half of the popular vote was too much. 10%? Nah, we need to be more realistic. How about 1%? That sounds about right. If just 1% of the total people who voted for Ron Paul took the time and showed at the convention, what kind of impact would that have made? After a little math I found out that we would have had 870 delegates at the convention!! That's a 2/3rds majority!!

With just 1% we could have done anything we wanted at the convention. If we had just 1/2 of 1% we would have nearly doubled our actual numbers (435) and could still have won.

1% is a number to keep in mind come future elections. The goal should be between 0.5%-1%. It's a very doable number and it's a number that for at least in IL, would have given us over a 2/3rds majority and with just 1/2 of 1% we may have been able to get a partial win.

So consider this, next popular vote total you get for your state, county, etc., and you're wondering how many people need to turn out for a convention, caucus, etc. the bar should be set at between 0.5%-1%.



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