47 votes

Ron Paul Has A 99.6% Chance of Getting A "5th" State!

Okay guys, so earlier tonight I did some research and number crunching. According to TheReal2012DelegateCount, there a seven states that have not released a number for delegates (Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and of course Nebraska).There are 2 states conventions that I did not include, but if they were included it would only increases the odds.

After finding out how many possible ways Paul could win at least one of these states (127), I divided it by the maximum number of possibilities. This number is of course 128 since there is only one possible way Paul doesn't win any state. Anyway, the calculations gave me a percentage of over 99.2%, and like I said, adding the Idaho and Oregon conventions would just make the odds higher. I just added in those 2 conventions and the odds rose to over 99.6%! The corrupt GOP can't fight these odds!

If all else fails, we still have the Oklahoma Parking Lot slate (thanks Suriyahfish!) that SHOULD be chosen. After all, they played by the rules the entire way.

All in all, Nebraska is NOT do or die and it is NOT our last hope! We still have other chances to get plurality in states, and even after that, there is Rule 38.

Keep on fighting delegates! We Paulites are all behind you!

PS If the math seems hard to believe, you can double check my work. Find the odds of Paul winning at leat 1 state when 9 states are up for grabs.

You can calculate this with combinations. On a scientific calculator it is easiest. I used my TI-83 PLUS and entered in 9 nCr 1, 9 nCr 2, and so on. If you can figure out how to do combinations on a calculator you can see for yourself!

With the Nebraska results, the odds go down (sort of). I had miscalculated my combinations earlier and did the combination for 8 states when I thought I did nine. The actually probability WAS 99.8%, but after the Nebraska loss, the odds drop down to 99.6%. It may not seem like much now, but as the states with unknown numbers start coming in, it will make a difference.

I still think our best chances for these other states are Oklahoma and Texas. There is still hope people, so don't give up! Paul can still get his 15 minutes of fame.

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I thought

Dr. Paul already had 5 states..

Formerly Tebowtime195
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It is my understanding that he has six

However, nobody is sure what the RNC will say or do. They will most likely mirror what the media has been saying for the last few weeks. I hope this is untrue. I hope that the delegates at Tampa will see what Ron Paul has really won and give him what he deserves. More than that, I hope they will be sensible and nominate Dr. Paul as the Republican nominee.

Maths is only one part of the equation.

It is our choices that dictates the outcome.

I believe in the freedom to be what we choose to be.

"Our" Choices

I see much of this going down the state decision or a court decision. That being said I hope "our" decisions are good enough. Really, I hope we have enough evidence in our favor to get another state to our side.

When there was all this media hype on NE

It reminded me of all the football games I've endured with my husband when they are playing up the losing team in order to create drama and in turn money for them.

I think that it they are trying to discourage Paul supporters to think.. oh well, all is lost. And it isn't!!!

it wasn't the last chance!

Even if we don't get a plurality in 5 states, we can still...

...nominate Dr. Paul for Vice President.
He would then get to speak before the convention.

And even if that doesn't happen, we are still
moving the Republican party back towards the

Vice President? Aside Whom?

I do not see Ron Paul being a VP choice for Romney or Obama. Gary Johnson being President with Ron Paul being VP is like GW being President with GHW as his VP. Sorry, I just don't see it happening. It's President 45 in 2013 or bust for Ron Paul.

However, we are getting the GOP back to the Grand Ol' days of the Constitution so that they can be - well, you know - CONSERVATIVE and all that jazz. Hey who knows, maybe one day we can get Democrats to be more peaceful than the last few have been.

North Carolina has an election coming up Tuesday

North Carolina 7/17/12
Liberty candidates to Vote For:
[] Dan Forrest Lt. Govenor
[] Richard Alexander Sup. Pub. Instr
[] Mike Causey Ins. Comm
[] Scott Keadle House Rep Dist 8
[] Matthew Ridenhour Mecklenburg district 5 Comm
[] Adam Brooks Comm Randolph County District 5 (not sure if the election day is correct for him)
[] Mark Hopp Comm Alamance County

Linda Cross's picture

Ron Paul has 100% chance of winning.

The message is already out there and people who have understood that message are stepping up to run for office all across America, why even the Federal Reserve will be audited. My only concern is IF Ron Paul will ACCEPT the nomination.

If you see something, say something, the government is listening.
Silence isn't golden, it's yellow.

As long as I breathe

As long as I am not in a coma, on life support, a human vegetable, or dead, I will keep fighting for the Constitutional America.

THIS is why we need Ron Paul is office!

Because this is a perfect example of just how far the education system has slipped in America. I assume this poster is at least of voting age, and therefore has graduated high school. And yet with at least 12 years of schooling, this is his level of math knowledge!

No wonder we are falling behind in the real careers.

Thanks for the positive

and hopeful post! I do not care if your calculations are right. No one knows how this will go, and other factors, like rigged machines and cheating factor in. Wish it was as honest as algebra!

None of us will forget the lessons of freedom, no matter what happens. Thank you Ron Paul! The Revolution will continue no matter what happens, and it's global!

I sure hope some people will

I sure hope some people will be brave enough to take a stand in 2016 (or 2020) and keep the revolution alive! To be honest, what Ron Paul is doing takes a lot of guts. I can't imagine what it was like for him in the 80s when he had people booing him on TV and saying he would smoke cocaine in the Oval Office.

Time to retake the maths classes

You're assuming equal probability of out come.

It's a bit like saying that if you roll a coin 7 times its bound to come down on its edge at least once.

Really? I'm sure those odds are impossible!

I don't know about you, but I never flipped a coin and seen it freeze in time,landing on it's edge when it comes into contact with a surface.

If what you're saying is true, then Ron Paul has no chance of winning any of the remaining states. I will keep this in mind for later.

I've always wondered what

I've always wondered what would happen if you crossed an idiot with statistics, and now I know. So thanks for that.

Anyone who voted this crap up is a complete idiot. It's not like Ron Paul has a 50/50 chance at whining each of those 9 states.

You need to take the batteries out of your TI, and swallow them because Math is beyond your mental capabilities, and you are too stupid to exist.

Learn how statistics work before you start trying to do probability analysis or construct pivot tables.

Sometimes I am embarrassed to be a part of a movement that has so many idiots who have somehow figured out what the best form of government is. This irks me to know end!!!

How can idiots who cannot even comprehend basic statistics "get" liberty, and people like Paul Krugman (or anyone else who is educated in economics) can't? I feel like I'm stuck in a never-ending episode of the Twilight Zone

"this irks me to know end"

I agree that it is indeed irksome to realize that we will end, but I am guessing that you are NOT commenting on any knowledge of our impending demise. ("This irks me to know end!!!" The thought of eventual extinction well explains the appeal of theism's claims of the survival of the immortal soul.)

It generally enhances one's credibility, particularly when calling out others for their alleged ignorance or stupidity, to check your own text first. I also am skeptical of the 99.6% odds cited, but before I would endeavor to criticize the speck in another's eye, I would wish to pluck the plank from my own.

Also, I reckon that The Good Doctor has rather less than a 50/50 chance of "whining" about the outcome of these contests. Congressmember Paul is the most courtly of gentlemen, and it little behooves him to snivel.

Yikes! And to think that I am called "vindictive". At least I am not so "mean-spirited" as to encourage suicides among my comrades. Sometime this association can indeed be quite embarrassing.

dynamite anthrax supreme court white house tea party jihad
West of 89
a novel of another america

The only Idiot I see here is

The only Idiot I see here is you.....

It is not necessary

to call people "fool" or "idiot". Can you not express your view without being so rude? Ron Paul would be a good example to observe.

Didn't Ron call Santorum a fake?


If you don't like it then RE-JOIN THE ESTABLISHMENT

I can't believe the nerve you have calling not just me, but other liberty activist idiots. If you really are surrounded by a mass of idiots who don't understand anything, then you don't deserve to be here. Go back to sleep with the rest of the establishment lovers who will lead us to World War Three. In the meantime, I'll be sitting back in a chair watching the Nebraska convention this weekend. So go ahead and re-join the brainwashed establishment lovers so you won't have to be around an idiot liberty lover like me.


Thanks for the giggle

I'll be stealing: "I've always wondered what would happen if you crossed an idiot with statistics, and now I know. "

If Romney wins only by

If Romney wins only by defrauding the voters, has he really won?

I think the SCARIEST part

I think the SCARIEST part about this is that you really DON'T understnad why your logic is fucking ridiculous.

It is simple...Ron Paul does NOT have a 50% chance of winning each state. So, Romney does not have a 50% chance either. He has a MUCH higher one. Therefore, to say that Romney's chances of winning all 7 are "0.5^7" is RIDICULOUS.

You have clearly NEVER taken an advanced math class in your life..and by advanced, I mean, above 3rd grade.

Let me see if I can make you understand how fucking worthless your brain is.

Suppose you played Kobe Bryant in 7 game of 1 on 1. Would you say that you have a 99.6% chance of winning at least one? Why not? I mean, there are just two possible outcomes to each game. You either win or you lose...therefore it is 50-50, right?

While we are at it...everyone should be 7 lottery tickets. Each ticket will either win, or lose. So 50-50. Therefore, by buying 7 tickets, you will win the jackpot 99.6% of the time!

And the saddest part of this is that here are actually people that are CONGRATULATING you and your research!

Wow! Just goes to show that most people here have the intelligence level of a 5th grader at best.

This is why you will NEVER have a job that does not involve a time card in your life.

Why don't you go bother someone else

I don't need to be insulted by the five or so idiots like you who don't understand my math simply because you don't think Ron Paul has a good of chance of winning another state. If you believe the numbers that is fine, but you BUT DON'T EVER FUCKING INSULT MY INTELLIGENCE ON MY FORUMS AGAIN YOU BASTARD! I'll let you know that I actually have had a brain disorder since birth, but it in no way effects my ability to make a few calculations. If you don't like my optimism in a place where people have "all eyes on Nebraska" saying it's Ron Paul's "last stand" then FUCK OFF!

As far as your examples, they are worse than the statistics I made. First off, we all know there are more than 9 lottery tickets for each lottery, so your numbers are unrealistic. Second, you can go into deeper analysis with one-on-one basketball, such as chances of making a lay-up, three pointer, free throw, and other factors. You can't make the math simple for every problem and it expect it to work, but it does here.

Speaking of simple, obviously you don't read because I said what form of mathematics I used to get my numbers. I used combinations, not exponents. So in this case you actually simplified my work, and you ended up being wrong!

The reason it is a 50% chance for each state and nothing lower is because the event is "Paul wins a state" vs "Paul does not win a state" and every state is INDEPENDENT! This means that Ron Paul's current number of states out of the total is irrelevant to the last nine states that remain and each of the nine states are not effected by the outcome of any other state. Are you saying that because Ron Paul lost California, he also lost Wyoming? No, that's absurd to think because one state outcome does not affect another, it only affects the odds of the remaining state.

Fucking forgive me for going more in depth with this and finding the odds of every individual delegate for each state voting for Ron Paul delegates to go to the RNC based on the same logic, but after 1:00 in the morning, people start to get tired. If you want to try working those numbers with your failed methods, be my guest. But until then, you every other asshole on here calling me an idiot can shut the fuck up!I didn't take college courses in high for to be called an idiot by someone I never met before.

Even though he was rude

Trust him and the many others who have responded that your math is incorrect. Even though there are only 2 possible outcomes in each state, the likelihood of those outcomes is not equal. You could say "If Ron Paul had a 50-50 shot in each state, here is the probability that he would win at least 1 out of X" and then your math would be on the right track. But it would be a hypothetical, and for anyone to believe your result was correct, you would have to convince them that your assumptions were likewise correct. They are not. Each state is not a 50-50 proposition.

Finally, the light of reason!

You correctly mention the poster's mathematical error and you avoid insulting anyone else =]

One comment: probabilities are always hypothetical - or do you believe chance is an objective entity?

There is much confusion around this topic and the philosophical rabbit hole goes very deep indeed.

All I meant....

Was that for someone to buy the 99.6 result, they would have to buy the 50-50 premise. I wasn't trying to get any deeper than that into the philosophy of probability. Experts on the subject can't even agree on a lot of those things.

Hey dumbass

π -> the probability of a success on any one observation, 4 states won out of 41 total (4/41)
n -> # of remaining states (9)
x -> # of successes

For x=0, =BINOM.DIST(0, 9, 0.097561, 1) = 39.70%

For x=1, it is 38.63%. For the cumulative probability of winning 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 etc. up to all 9, it would be 60.30% (100%-39.70%).

So, although the probability isn't 99%, it is still >50%. You just insulted the OP but had no clue how to figure out the math on your own; clearly you have never taken an introductory statistics class. Now go wait by the mailbox for your unemployment check, your presence is unwanted. Either that, or go "be" some lottery tickets retard.